Consumer

May's Retail Sales Depressed Q2's Real GDP

Jun 16, 2022 2 min read

May's retail sales was weak in current dollars (-0.3% m/m) and even weaker in real dollars (-1.6%). The question is whether consumers have more than satisfied their post-lockdown, pent-up demand for goods, and are now spending more on services? Consider the following: (1) The three rounds of stimulus checks provided by Uncle Sam (actually Uncles Don and Joe) during the pandemic certainly stimulated

Ed Yardeni

Uncle Sam Isn’t Santa Claus

Jun 12, 2022 1 min read

Following Friday’s CPI shocker, the financial media seem to have concluded that the Fed will have no choice but to raise the federal funds rate faster than planned to bring inflation down—causing a recession. The Fed is now expected to raise the federal funds rate on Wednesday by 75bps rather than 50bps. The two-year Treasury note soared 23bps on Friday to 3.06%, implying investor expectations that

Ed Yardeni

Mortgage Applications Falling, Consumer Credit Balances Rising

Jun 8, 2022 1 min read paid

The housing market may be falling into a recession, but consumers continue to spend—though they have needed to borrow more to do so. The seasonally adjusted purchase Index for mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, decreased 7% w/w and 21% y/y during the week ended June 3. Record-high home prices combined with this year’s spike in the mortgage rate to 5.40% have

Ed Yardeni

Don't Bet Against American Consumers

May 17, 2022 1 min read paid

How much pain at the pump can consumers take? The national retail price of a gallon of gasoline soared to $4.59 during the May 16 week.

Ed Yardeni

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May's Retail Sales Depressed Q2's Real GDP

Uncle Sam Isn’t Santa Claus

Mortgage Applications Falling, Consumer Credit Balances Rising

Don't Bet Against American Consumers