CPI

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: January 12–16

Jan 11, 2026 3 min read

If economists did weather reports, this week's forecast would call for a data blizzard. Yet visibility should improve as the markets get much-anticipated readings on inflation, retail sales, and industrial production ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting on January 28. Few economists expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to ease monetary policy again later this month.

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 10-14

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read paid

After several weeks of a growth scare, the attention this week will shift back to inflation. The new scare could be stagflation, which is the risk to our more upbeat economic outlook. CPI inflation has been reaccelerating since last fall when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100bps (chart). Businesses may have raised prices in February in anticipation of tariffs. If CPI services inflation remains sticky at January'

Ed Yardeni

Fed Rate Cuts On Ice As Inflation Heats Up

Feb 12, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's hotter-than-expected January CPI inflation did some damage to bonds, raising long-term Treasury yields roughly 10bps. Headline and core CPI rose 0.5% and 0.4% m/m, respectively, as many companies set their annual price increases. But this wasn't a start-of-the-year blip; inflation has been rising since last summer (chart). So after 100bps of federal funds rate (FFR) cuts from September 18 through December 18

Ed Yardeni

Eyeing the CPI

Feb 11, 2025 3 min read paid

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony today confirmed that the Fed remains in a dovish pause mode. The FOMC is in no hurry to lower the federal funds rate (FFR). That's even though many of the committee's participants believe that the FFR remains relatively restrictive. So when they finally move again, it will most likely be to lower rather than to raise the

Stephen Rybka
Ed Yardeni

Today Was A Good Day

Jan 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Both stocks and bonds benefitted from good news across the earnings, macroeconomic, and geopolitical fronts today. Financial stocks jumped as big banks kicked off Q4 earnings season with better-than-expected results, and the S&P 500 rose 1.8%. Treasuries rallied, as December's CPI was a bit cooler than feared. And Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire after 15 long months of fighting. We anticipated that

Ed Yardeni

Will Rate Cuts Continue Unless Inflation Behaves Badly?

Dec 11, 2024 4 min read

Today's CPI report for November matched expectations. The CME FedWatch tool shows 95% odds that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps next week, and the Fed doesn't like to surprise market expectations. The Nasdaq front-ran our forecast to reach 20,000 by mid-2025 by reaching that milestone today (chart). Now we are aiming for 22,000 by mid-2025. Our yearend target

Ed Yardeni

Supercomputers vs Supercore Inflation

Dec 10, 2024 3 min read paid

The stock market appeared calm ahead of tomorrow's November CPI report, which is likely to show that supercore inflation (i.e., CPI services less shelter) remains stuck around 4.5% (chart). However, there was plenty of action just below the surface of the stock market's calm. Oracle dropped 6.7% on disappointing earnings results. Google rallied 5.3% on a new state-of-the-art chip "Willow,"

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 9-13

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of inflation updates. We're expecting stickier inflation readings that should ruffle the feathers of the Fed's doves. The FOMC is in a blackout period ahead of its December 17-18 meeting, meaning FOMC members won't be able to comment publicly. If the CPI news changes their minds about cutting the federal funds rate (FFR), they'll have to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 11-15

Nov 10, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead will provide updates on inflation, consumer spending, and manufacturing. We expect inflation might have stalled in October, interrupting its decline toward the Fed's 2.0% target. We still expect a solid increase in inflation-adjusted incomes last month, which should fuel strong consumer spending. The goods sector likely remained depressed last month, especially as hurricanes and worker strikes weighed on manufacturing hours worked. Here's

Ed Yardeni

Powell Is Too Dovish

Oct 10, 2024 3 min read paid

The monetary policy hawks may be coming home to roost at the Fed's November 6-7 meeting. September's CPI was hotter-than-expected, thanks to sticky services inflation. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the other doves on the Federal Open Market Committee who worried about a weakening economy have less credibility since Friday's jobs report showed the unemployment rate fell further and payrolls reached a new

Ed Yardeni

CPI Triggered Stock Market Hissy Fit

Sep 11, 2024 3 min read

This morning's CPI report showed inflation continues to moderate. Nevertheless, stock prices initially fell sharply on the news. While the headline CPI was up 0.2% m/m as expected, the core rose 0.3% instead of the expected 0.2%. That minor difference convinced lots of traders that the Fed would cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps rather than 50bps on September 18. Nevertheless, the

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 9-13

Sep 8, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's economic indicators will be primarily focused on inflation. Barring any unexpected surprises on the inflation front, the financial markets may care more about the few labor market indicators. The FOMC entered the blackout period ahead of its September meeting yesterday, sparing markets from an extra source of volatility. We expect the combination of a normalizing hiring, inflation, and interest rate environment (a.k.a. Immaculate Disinflation)

Ed Yardeni

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