Deep Dive

DEEP DIVE: Trump Turmoil 2.0 Raises Odds Of A Recession

Mar 8, 2025 6 min read

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 5, 2025. Strategy I: Trump Turmoil 2.0. We haven’t had to change our subjective probabilities for our three alternative economic scenarios for quite some time. We are doing so today and may have to do so more frequently in coming months or even coming weeks in reaction to the volatile nature of policymaking under President Donald

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Negative GDP Math Doesn't Add Up

Mar 3, 2025 5 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 3, 2025. The latest economic indicators aren’t supporting our resilient-economy thesis. Nevertheless, we are sticking with it for now. Consider the following: (1) Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now & CESI. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model lowered the estimated growth rate of Q1’s real GDP from 2.5% (q/q, saar) to -1.5% on

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Gunfight At DOGE City

Feb 21, 2025 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, February 18, 2025. Federal Budget I: The DOGE Boys. “The Gunfight at Dodge City” is a 1959 Western film. After his brother the sheriff is murdered, Bat Masterson is elected to the job of sheriff and is determined to find the killer and make Dodge City safe. Today, there are gunfights going on in DOGE City to restore law

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Roaring 2020s & Reciprocal Tariffs

Feb 14, 2025 7 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, February 11, 2025. US Economy I: On the Road Again. Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” was her sixth tour. It started on March 17, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona and concluded on December 8, 2024 in Vancouver, British Columbia. My “Roaring 2020s Tour” started in California at the end of January 2024. My latest stops were in Georgia and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Art Of The Tariff Deal

Feb 8, 2025 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, February 4, 2025. Geopolitics I: What Trump Wants from Canada & Mexico. It’s become abundantly clear to us what President Donald Trump wants from Mexico. To Trump, Mexico is a looming security threat. In his view, the country must reclaim control over the drug trade and the migrant flows spilling over the southern US border. His demand is

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Digital Revolution Is Evolving

Feb 1, 2025 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, January 28, 2025. DeepSeek is a Chinese AI lab that has rocked the world of artificial intelligence (AI) by developing a competitive Large Language Model, or LLM, that reportedly outperforms ChatGPT but was developed at a fraction of the cost with much less time required to “teach” the program. It also functions with cheaper and less powerful Nvidia GPU

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Time To Recalibrate Our Three Scenarios?

Jan 24, 2025 2 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, January 13, 2025. We regularly assess the subjective probabilities that we assign to our three scenarios: the Roaring 2020s (55%), the Meltup 1990s (25%), and Stagflationary 1970s (20%). The last scenario, with the lowest probability currently, is our what-could-go-wrong “bucket.” Our main concern since early 2022 was that geopolitical crises might cause oil prices to soar as occurred during

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Recalibrating the Fed

Jan 18, 2025 5 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, January 13, 2025. From March 2022 through August 2024, there was widespread concern that the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed over that period would cause a recession. It was the most widely anticipated recession that didn’t happen on record. Once the Fed started easing monetary policy on September 18, 2024, it was widely expected that the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Risks & Reward In 2025

Jan 11, 2025 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated January 6, 2025. Strategy I: What Could Go Right. We are biased by the stock market’s bullish bias. We tend to be permabulls because bear markets are infrequent and are usually relatively short compared to bull markets, which tend to last for some time. Since January 1978, the S&P 500 is up 66.6-fold (Fig. 3)

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Inflation: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

Dec 20, 2024 9 min read paid

💡This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research December 16, 2024 Morning Briefing. Inflation I: The Good In our Roaring 2020s scenario, a productivity growth boom boosts real GDP growth, keeps a lid on inflation, drives up real labor compensation, and widens profit margins. Last week’s Productivity and Costs report compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) mostly included revised data for Q3-2024, which mostly supported this upbeat

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Roaring 2020s Tour Deep In The Heart of Texas

Dec 14, 2024 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the Yardeni Research December 9, 2024 Morning Briefing. Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” ended yesterday in Vancouver. The extraordinary singer started this sixth concert tour in Glendale, Arizona on March 17, 2023. The tour consisted of 149 shows spanning five continents. Two of my daughters enjoyed her show in Toronto last month. My “Roaring 2020s Tour” started in Dallas, Texas last Tuesday morning. That

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Does the Stock Market Have a Valuation Problem?

Dec 6, 2024 6 min read paid

Strategy I: Valuation & Growth. As we’ve seen over the past three years, stock investors don’t like recessions, not even the no-shows. There was much anxiety about an imminent recession from January 3, 2022 through October 12, 2022, as reflected by the 25.4% drop in the S&P 500 over that period. Over that period, industry analysts confirmed investors’ fears by lowering their consensus expectations for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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