Deep Dive

DEEP DIVE: The Fed - Peak Hawkishness?

Jan 31, 2023 3 min read paid

The FOMC’s two-day meeting ends tomorrow. At 2:00 p.m., the committee will issue its statement, and at 2:30 p.m., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his usual after-meeting press conference. For the other Fed officials, the blackout period preventing public comments ends on Friday. The next blackout period starts on March 11. So we can look forward to lots of commentary from the Fed heads

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Pessimistic Consensus

Jan 20, 2023 6 min read paid

It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly. At the end of last year, there seemed to be widespread agreement that the first half of 2023 would continue to be bad for stocks as the Fed continues to raise interest rates and the market discounts a recession during H2-2023. The bear market in stocks was expected to continue

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed: ‘Moderation’ Is the Word

Nov 30, 2022 4 min read paid

Bond yields fell and stock prices rose in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today at the Brookings Institution. Most importantly, he confirmed that the FOMC is on track to raise the federal funds rate by 50bps rather than 75bps at the December 13-14 meeting of the committee. Here is how he concluded his speech: This is an excerpt from our Nov 30 Morning Briefing. “Monetary policy affects

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Is A Net Exporter Of Fossil Fuels

Nov 21, 2022 2 min read paid

Climate activists believed that if governments were to impose regulations that limit fossil fuel production, fossil fuel prices would rise, encouraging more usage of renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, government support still would be needed to make renewable sources cost competitive. That reality combined with geopolitical developments have made the transition from fossil to renewable fuels far less smooth than climate activists had assumed. This is an excerpt from our Nov

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Has the S&P 500 Discounted a Hard Landing?

Nov 4, 2022 4 min read paid Featured

One of our accounts recently asked us to assess the extent to which the stock market has discounted a garden-variety recession. That’s an interesting question. We have been thinking and writing about this question all year. This is an excerpt from our Oct 31 Morning Briefing. Our current assessment is that the market has discounted a rolling recession, a.k.a. a “soft landing,” “growth recession,” or “mid-cycle slowdown.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Lots Of Explanations For Current Labor Shortage

Oct 23, 2022 6 min read paid Featured

Sure, Covid caused many workers to leave the workforce owing to health concerns or for caregiving purposes. But it’s not the only reason for the depressed US labor-force participation rate. Now that the pandemic has abated, life has normalized, but labor-force participation hasn’t. In September, the participation rate was merely 62.3%, over a full percentage point below the level just before the pandemic, in February 2020, of

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: A Rolling Recession Is Underway

Oct 14, 2022 3 min read paid

Debbie and I have said it before: “The next recession may be the most anticipated recession of all times.” We have a reason to say it again: Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase yesterday said a recession is coming. The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated October 12, 2022.

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Valuation Question

Oct 5, 2022 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Oct 4 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. The air continued to come out of valuation multiples last week, as inflation remains persistent and interest rates remain elevated. There’s an inverse correlation between the S&P 500’s P/E and the

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Channels Former-Fed Chair Paul Volcker

Sep 26, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Aug 30 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. It seems that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently read former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s autobiography, Keeping At It (2018). Amazon’s summary states: “As chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979-1987), Paul Volcker slayed the inflation

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Is Divine Disinflation Possible?

Sep 9, 2022 2 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Sept 6 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. Is disinflation possible without an economy-wide recession? History shows that inflation rarely falls on its own without a recession (Fig. 3). But we don’t think history necessarily has to repeat itself (despite how often it

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Anatomy Of A Rolling Recession

Sep 2, 2022 5 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Aug 30 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. Is the only path forward a painful one, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently suggested? Is a recession inevitable now that Powell may be channeling his inner Volcker? Debbie and I still don’t expect that

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Tug-Of-War Continues Between the Bulls & The Bears

Aug 25, 2022 4 min read paid

The latest bear market started on January 3, 2022, when the S&P 500 peaked at a record-high 4796.56. That’s undisputable. But whether the bear market ended on June 16 at a closing low of 3666.77 is a question of great dispute. The bulls, including Joe and me, think so. The bears believe that the bear market isn’t over and that new lows are ahead.

Ed Yardeni

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