Disinflation

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 4-8

Aug 3, 2025 3 min read

Compared to last week’s dramatic data surprises, this week’s offerings are decidedly of the slim-pickings variety. But boring, the days ahead will not be. While we’re still of the thinking that President Donald Trump won’t fire Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair’s fate could be written between the lines of any data series that undershoots expectations. Following Friday’s weaker-than-expected July employment report, Trump wasted

Ed Yardeni

Trump Dealing ... Consumers Consuming ... Employers Employing

Jul 17, 2025 4 min read paid

Liberation Day II is coming on August 1. President Donald Trump has stated that it won't be postponed, unlike Liberation Day I, which was initially scheduled for April 2 but was postponed to July 9 and then to August 1. According to a July 10 Reuters report, Trump is considering raising his 10% base tariff to 15% or 20% on most trading partners by that deadline. That would

Ed Yardeni

Ceasefire

Jun 23, 2025 3 min read

This morning, Iran launched a missile attack on the US military's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation for US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities the previous day. The attack involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, with Qatar reporting that its air defenses intercepted most of them, and no casualties were reported. Earlier in the day, President Donald Trump thanked Iran for giving the United States advance

Ed Yardeni

IN 11 CHARTS: Fed Remains On Hold, But Still Leans Towards Easing

Jun 19, 2025 5 min read paid

President Donald Trump has been calling on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. The Fed chair has been the object of intensifying schoolyard jabs from the President. "We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed," Trump told reporters following the Fed's stand-pat decision on Wednesday. "Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I'd do a much better job

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 12 - 16

May 11, 2025 4 min read

The coming week is jampacked with several April economic indicators and a couple of May regional business surveys. On balance, they should show that the soft data turned even softer mostly in response to Trump's Tariff Turmoil. The hard data are likely to be mixed, though consumer-related indicators should show resilience. The week's headline inflation indicators may be subdued by stable energy prices, while the core

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Rise On Latest Trump Pivot

Apr 14, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a Trump Pivot is a good day for the stock market. Shares of automakers closed higher today after President Donald Trump said he is looking to "help some of the car companies" with his 25% auto tariff (chart). The automakers "need a little bit of time" to move their production to the US, Trump said. Tech stocks rose too after guidance on Friday

Ed Yardeni

New Risk: Powell Stoking Risk-On Trades

Mar 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish congressional testimony yesterday and today stoked the hot trades in the financial markets from Nvidia to bitcoin to gold: "We're waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we're not far from it, it'll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction,

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: January 22 - 26

Jan 20, 2024 2 min read

The week ahead should be another good one for our "immaculate disinflation" scenario. December's Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (Mon) probably rose to another record high (chart). Payroll employment rose to a new high last month. Real personal income and real business sales of goods probably did the same. Production upticked in December. The Index of Leading Economic indicators has been misleadingly pessimistic since December 2022.

Ed Yardeni

A Christmas Market For The Bull? S&P 500 At 6000 In 2025?

Dec 10, 2023 3 min read paid

Christmas is in two weeks. This year's Santa Claus rally started early, i.e., on October 27. Will it last through Christmas? Will the rally continue through the end of this year, and maybe through the end of 2024 or even 2025? We think so. In our November 3, 2022 Morning Briefing, we wrote that “we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see

Ed Yardeni

China: The World's Largest Nursing Home

Nov 27, 2023 2 min read

China’s economy is in a property-led and fertility-led depression. That’s bad news for China’s people and for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) but benefits countries that import Chinese goods at depressed prices. China’s weak economy is good news for the US in particular, helping to moderate goods inflation without a recession here, a.k.a. "immaculate disinflation." It would be in China’s interest

Ed Yardeni

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