Economic Survey

Less Helped Wanted

Aug 2, 2022 1 min read paid

There are still 1.8 open jobs per available worker. However, June's job openings dropped 605,000 to about 10.7 million, the fewest since September 2021. It was the sharpest decline since April 2020, when the economy was in the lockdown recession.

Ed Yardeni

US Regional Business Slowing; Inflation Peaking

Jul 29, 2022 1 min read

July's national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI) will be released on Monday. Will investors cheer it? The regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve district banks suggest that the M-PMI should fall closer to 50.0 from June's 53.0 (chart below). The M-PMI's prices-paid index, which remained very high at 78.5, should also moderate somewhat, according to the

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future

Jul 26, 2022 1 min read

Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks bright, the future is looking darker. July's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) continued to decline in July as it has been since mid-2021 (down to 95.7), led by its falling expectations component (down to 65.3) (chart below). The current conditions component edged down in July,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, July 25-29, 2022

Jul 24, 2022 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jam-packed with economic data that are likely to show weakening economic activity and some signs of peaking inflation. In addition, the latest FOMC statement, released Wednesday, will probably announce a 75bps rate hike. Now consider the following:

Ed Yardeni

More Signs of A Mid-Cycle Slowdown

Jul 21, 2022 1 min read paid

The latest batch of economic indicators are in line with our mild recession outlook (a.k.a., a mid-cycle slowdown). We now have June's Leading and Coincident Economic Indexes (LEI & CEI) and July's NY and Philly regional business surveys, which are conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve district banks. The averages of the five tend to closely track the national manufacturing purchasing managers

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Readings in June’s M-PMI Report

Jul 1, 2022 2 min read

June’s national M-PMI was reported this morning, and it wasn’t as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by 5 of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. However, the new orders component of the national index was almost as weak as suggested by the comparable regional average index (charts below). Here are some quick takeaways from the national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers: (1) June’s

Ed Yardeni

Supply-Chain Disruptions Easing. More Supply or Less Demand?

Jun 28, 2022 1 min read

June's surveys of five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks strongly suggest that supply-chain disruptions have eased significantly in recent months. However, that has yet to relieve inflationary pressures according to the surveys. The question is whether the drops in regional indexes tracking unfilled orders and delivery times during the first half of this year reflect more ample supplies or diminishing demand. Presumably, if demand is taking

Ed Yardeni

June's Regional Business Surveys Were Recessionary

Jun 28, 2022 2 min read paid

It's hard to come up with anything positive to say about June's batch of regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. That's because they were mostly in negative territory (chart below). They certainly add to the credibility of the recession-is-here scenario. However, the regional surveys tend to focus on manufacturing rather than services. Indeed, the averages of the

Ed Yardeni

Regional Business Surveys Bearish for New Orders

Jun 27, 2022 1 min read

The economy is teetering. After the release of durable goods orders this morning, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model showed Q2 real GDP rising by a paltry 0.3% (saar), but up from 0.0% previously. Nondefense capital goods orders, a measure of capital spending, rose at a better-than-expected pace of 0.5% m/m (9.8% y/y) during May to yet another record high. However, some of

Ed Yardeni

Two Regional Business Surveys Showing More Stagflation In June

Jun 16, 2022 2 min read paid

Two regional business surveys, conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, are now available for the New York and Philadelphia districts through June. These two always come out before the other three for Kansas City, Richmond, and Dallas. They also tend to reflect the average final results of all five surveys. The averages of both the two surveys and all five of them closely track the national manufacturing

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Indicators Showing Slowing Economic Growth

Jun 3, 2022 2 min read

We are seeing some very odd divergencies between the averages of the regional business surveys conducted by five Federal Reserve Banks and the national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. In the past, the regional and national indexes for overall business, new orders, and employment tracked one another very closely. Now, not so much: (1) During May, the regional composite index fell to 0.

Ed Yardeni

Regional Business Surveys: More of the Same

Apr 29, 2022 1 min read

April's national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers will be out on Monday. We expect that the M-PMI composite index is likely to remain around its March reading of 57.1

Ed Yardeni

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