Fed

Charging to New Highs

Jun 5, 2024 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today, once again led by semiconductor stocks, in particular, by Nvidia (chart). The chipmaker just joined the $3 trillion dollar market-cap club along with Microsoft and Apple. The long line to buy the company's GPU chips keeps getting longer. It will have a 10-for-1 stock split on Friday. Perversely, the bulls are also charged up by the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Is The Fed Put Back?

Jun 4, 2024 3 min read paid

The financial markets seem to believe that the Fed Put is back. The recent batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators raised the number of expected 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) from 2 to 3 over the next 12 months (chart). That's according to the basis-point spread between the 12-month FFR futures and the actual FFR divided by 25bps. Investors must be confident that inflation is getting

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Another Rollercoaster Ride.

Jun 2, 2024 3 min read paid

Friday was another wild ride on the S&P 500 rollercoaster. At first, stock prices rose after April's PCED inflation rate released at 8:30 am matched expectations. But then they dropped after a recessionary reading in May's Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer at 10:00 am (chart). The unexpected decrease in the business barometer partly reflected a steep drop in the new orders index,

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Weighing On Stocks

May 29, 2024 2 min read paid

Yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that he wants to see "many more months of positive inflation data" before he's ready to cut rates. He also didn't rule out a hike. Fixed-income investors are starting to realize that this is the new party line from the Fed. Earlier this year, we argued that there was no reason for the Fed to rush

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Will Nvidia Trump The Fed?

May 23, 2024 2 min read paid

Yesterday's FOMC minutes confirmed that Fed officials are in no rush to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) and some are considering the possibility that they might have to raise it if inflation stalls above the Fed's 2.0% target. The 2-year Treasury yield is back up to 4.94% implying one 25bps rate cut over the next 12 months. So stocks sold off on fears

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Recession Claim

May 9, 2024 2 min read

One of our competitors claims that we are in a recession. Another claims that we will soon be in a recession. The most widely anticipated recession of all times is turning into the longest widely anticipated recession of all times. One day, the diehard hard-landers will be right. Was today the day? We're sure that their heartbeats quickened on today's jobless claims report. Consider the following:

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Powell Says No Stag, No Flation.

May 1, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell wasn't dovish at his presser today. But he wasn't hawkish either. He said, "I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike." The 2-year Treasury yield fell back below 5.00% to 4.98%, consistent with one 25bps cut in the federal funds rate over the next twelve months. The S&P

Ed Yardeni

Look For The Union Label In Latest ECI Inflation Rate

Apr 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q1 was another hotter-than-expect inflation report. It came out just as the FOMC started its latest meeting to discuss monetary policy. It increases the odds that Fed officials will sound more hawkish starting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his presser tomorrow following the meeting. Stocks sold off hard as the 2-year Treasury note yield rose back above 5.00% to 5.

Ed Yardeni

Monetary Policy Is In A 'Good Place'

Apr 18, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Hawks Fly Higher For Longer Than Doves

Apr 16, 2024 2 min read paid

It's official: Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that he and his colleagues aren't convinced that inflation is coming down fast enough to consider cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) any time soon: "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," Powell said at a moderated

Ed Yardeni

The Last Mile

Apr 10, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the Fed start raising the federal funds rate again? We expect to be hearing this question more often following today's hotter-than-expected CPI inflation report. The previous two reports for January and February were also hotter-than-expected. We don't think that the Fed will raise rates again this year, but we've pushed back against the widely-held notion of several cuts this year and argued that

Ed Yardeni

Loose Fed Lips Sink Stocks

Apr 4, 2024 2 min read paid

We are in the same camp as Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. On March 6, he said, "If we have a run rate that's very attractive, people have jobs, businesses are doing well, inflation is coming back down, why do anything?" We wrote an op-ed in the March 25 Financial Times titled, "The Fed should resist messing with success." We asked:

Ed Yardeni

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