Fed

Powell Says No Stag, No Flation.

May 1, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell wasn't dovish at his presser today. But he wasn't hawkish either. He said, "I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike." The 2-year Treasury yield fell back below 5.00% to 4.98%, consistent with one 25bps cut in the federal funds rate over the next twelve months. The S&

Ed Yardeni

Look For The Union Label In Latest ECI Inflation Rate

Apr 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q1 was another hotter-than-expect inflation report. It came out just as the FOMC started its latest meeting to discuss monetary policy. It increases the odds that Fed officials will sound more hawkish starting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his presser tomorrow following the meeting. Stocks sold off hard as the 2-year Treasury note yield rose back above 5.

Ed Yardeni

Monetary Policy Is In A 'Good Place'

Apr 18, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Hawks Fly Higher For Longer Than Doves

Apr 16, 2024 2 min read paid

It's official: Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that he and his colleagues aren't convinced that inflation is coming down fast enough to consider cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) any time soon: "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," Powell said at a moderated

Ed Yardeni

The Last Mile

Apr 10, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the Fed start raising the federal funds rate again? We expect to be hearing this question more often following today's hotter-than-expected CPI inflation report. The previous two reports for January and February were also hotter-than-expected. We don't think that the Fed will raise rates again this year, but we've pushed back against the widely-held notion of several cuts

Ed Yardeni

Loose Fed Lips Sink Stocks

Apr 4, 2024 2 min read paid

We are in the same camp as Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. On March 6, he said, "If we have a run rate that's very attractive, people have jobs, businesses are doing well, inflation is coming back down, why do anything?" We wrote an op-ed in the March 25 Financial Times titled, "The Fed should resist messing with success." We

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Fed Choir All On Same Page

Mar 31, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Friday at an event at the San Francisco Fed. He repeated what other Fed officials have been saying recently. Solid economic growth gives the Fed "the chance to just be a little more confident about inflation coming down before we take the important step of cutting rates." Inflation continues to moderate on a "sometimes bumpy" path. So there's

Ed Yardeni

'There's Still No Rush'

Mar 27, 2024 2 min read paid

So said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller this evening at the Economic Club of New York in a speech titled “There’s Still No Rush.” He noted that the latest inflation figures were "disappointing" and that the economy and labor market remain strong. So, in his opinion, "it is appropriate to reduce the overall number of rate cuts or push them further into the future in response

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Fed Put Is Back

Mar 24, 2024 2 min read paid

Last week, the FOMC released its latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for March. Compared to December's SEP, the committee's participants raised their 2024 median forecasts for real GDP (from 1.4% to 2.1%) and for the core PCED inflation rate (from 2.4% to 2.6%). Their median forecast for the unemployment rate was lowered a bit from 4.1% to 4.0%

Ed Yardeni

Powell & Co. Remain Dovish

Mar 20, 2024 3 min read

Powell & Co. were more dovish today than we (and stock investors) expected. The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still implied three 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) this year (table). That's the same projection as in December's SEP even though the median forecast was raised for real GDP growth (to 2.1% from 1.4%) and the core PCE inflation

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Nvidia's Lovefest Versus Powell's (Perhaps Depressing) Presser

Mar 17, 2024 2 min read paid

Nvidia's three-day AI lovefest for developers starts Monday afternoon in San Jose, California. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm following the meeting. During his congressional testimony on March 7, Powell indicated that the Fed "is not far from...dial[ing] back the level of restriction." After last week's hotter

Ed Yardeni

New Risk: Powell Stoking Risk-On Trades

Mar 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish congressional testimony yesterday and today stoked the hot trades in the financial markets from Nvidia to bitcoin to gold: "We're waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we're not far from it, it'll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction,

Ed Yardeni

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