Federal Debt

Thoughts On Global Government Debt With A Focus On The US

Sep 28, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Revenge of the Bond Vigilantes? We still have a 70% subjective probability for our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario. The remaining 30% covers all the possible bearish scenarios. We monitor those possibilities closely with our Worry List. Our main worry right now is the significant rise in bond yields worldwide this year (chart). The higher global bond yields may be due to higher inflation, driven by the jump

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is A Debt Crisis Imminent?

Aug 31, 2026 5 min read paid

"You are going to see a crack in the bond market, OK?" JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a May 30 speech at the Reagan National Economic Forum. The US government debt situation is "nearing the point of no return" and approaching a "death spiral" that could threaten the stability of the world's largest economy, Ray Dalio writes in his new book

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bond Vigilantes Pushing Back Against Reckless Monetary & Fiscal Policies

Dec 28, 2024 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield is up 100bps since the Fed started lowering the federal funds rate (FFR) by 100bps on September 18 (chart). Even the 2-year Treasury yield is up about 75bps. We warned about this happening back in August. The Bond Vigilantes are sending a loud warning message. They aren't convinced Donald Trump, the new sheriff coming to town, will maintain fiscal law and

Ed Yardeni

The Blob

Apr 22, 2024 2 min read

The US federal deficit reminds us of the 1958 science fiction horror classic, "The Blob." It stars none-other than Steve McQueen, in his first leading role. The blob is an amoeba-like alien creature that crashes to Earth from outer space and feeds on humans, getting bigger and bigger with every bite. The federal deficit is getting bigger and bigger devouring more and more funds in the

Ed Yardeni

There's Always Something To Worry About

Jan 11, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock and bond markets are marking time. They might continue to do so during the first half of this year. The stock market should resume its advance during the second half of the year. The 10-year bond yield may continue to hover around 4.00% +/- 25bps this year. Here are the major issues hanging over the markets currently: (1) Inflation. December's CPI release showed a slight

Ed Yardeni

Flood of US Treasury Securities

Oct 30, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Remains On Downward Trend

Aug 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The FOMC can take the rest of the year off. The federal funds rate is now restrictive enough to bring inflation down without causing a recession, in our opinion. The banking crisis in March, Moody's recent downgrade of several regional banks, and the Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey all confirm that credit conditions are tightening. The economic data confirm that the economy remains resilient

Ed Yardeni

Expecting a Debt Deal

May 25, 2023 3 min read paid

Our good friend Jim Lucier of Capital Alpha is one of the best Washington watchers we know. He has given us permission to share his latest thoughts on the debt ceiling issue with you. His basic message is that this too shall pass. Here are some of his main points from his commentary today: (1) We think that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will be able to round up

Ed Yardeni

Money Flooding Into US From Overseas

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read

Money from overseas is pouring into the US capital markets, which foreign investors regard as a haven in a world that’s increasingly unsafe for them. Their mantra is “TINAC: There is no alternative country!” The US Treasury International Capital System (TICS) reported on Friday that private net capital inflows totaled $1.5 trillion over the past 12 months through July, near recent record inflows (chart below). Over this same

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Boosting Tax Receipts

May 16, 2022 1 min read

It’s good to be the King! You can spend lots of money by printing it. If you still have a fiscal deficit, the resulting inflation can help to narrow it by boosting tax receipts. Here in the US:

Ed Yardeni

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