GDP

Too Much Good Economic News?

Jan 22, 2026 4 min read

Investors have decided that the Greenland issue will be resolved now that there is a framework for resolving it. So far this year, they seem to be looking for greener pastures, as evidenced by the broadening of the bull market in stocks. Booming economic activity has provided plenty of greener pastures. There was plenty of good economic news today that should continue to bolster earnings and stock prices. Nevertheless, a

Ed Yardeni

From The 'Art Of The Deal' To The 'Concept Of A Deal' In One Day

Jan 21, 2026 3 min read paid

Just yesterday, we wrote that "the latest [stock market] pullback won't last long," partly because we "expect the Greenland issue will be resolved." It seemed resolved this afternoon when President Donald Trump said that he and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte "formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland." The President told CNBC that "we have a concept

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: January 20–23

Jan 19, 2026 3 min read

This is one of those be-ready-for-anything weeks as wildcards abound for both US and global markets—most of them POTUS-related. Investors will be glued to screens for any news involving the Justice Department's investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In addition, on Wednesday, the Supreme Court hears arguments over Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Tariff developments could come fast and furious, following

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

DEEP DIVE: 2025 Was Another Good Year For The Roaring 2020s!

Jan 17, 2026 7 min read

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated January 12, 2025. US Economy I: Productivity Is Roaring Last week was a very good one for our Roaring 2020s scenario. That’s because last week’s batch of economic data supported our productivity-led economic boom narrative. Real GDP growth was very strong during the last three quarters of 2025. The growth rate of employment slowed dramatically. As a result,

Ed Yardeni

US Economy & Earnings Ended 2025 Very Strongly

Jan 14, 2026 3 min read paid

Oil prices fell more than 1% today after President Donald Trump signaled he might not attack Iran. Late in the day, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that "we've been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It's stopped. It's stopping, and there's no plan for executions." The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was down

Ed Yardeni

Roaring Productivity Versus AI Bubble

Jan 8, 2026 2 min read

Relax: The AI bubble is the cover story in the latest BloombergBusinessweek (image). From a contrarian perspective, that's bullish because it signals that the bubble won't burst, if it even exists. We have AI Fatigue. We recently recommended underweighting the Magnificent-7 because their AI arms race is forcing them to spend heavily on AI infrastructure that could become obsolete quickly and that could be unprofitable as

Ed Yardeni

Remind Us: Why Did The Fed Ease?

Dec 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Productivity must be booming. Real GDP jumped 4.3% (saar) in Q3, following a 3.8% increase in Q2. Over the same period, aggregate hours worked in private industry was flat (saar). Productivity must have increased by more than 3.5% over the previous two quarters. That's consistent with our productivity-led Roaring 2020s scenario. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 22–26

Dec 21, 2025 3 min read

This looks to be a mercifully quiet holiday week that nonetheless offers a smattering of key data releases. Chief among them will be Q3's GDP and December's Consumer Confidence Index survey. Clearly, the economic fog caused by the government shutdown is following the markets into the new year. Though recent employment data have been illuminating—showing that the labor market may be a bit more robust

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

GDP IS HOT

Nov 3, 2025 2 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in Q3-2025 is 4.0% (saar) today, up from 3.9% on October 27 (chart). After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of Q3 real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. Of course, the model is based solely on data compiled

Ed Yardeni

Like Throwing Gasoline On A Fire

Sep 16, 2025 2 min read paid

The FOMC is likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps tomorrow. Among the meeting participants, there might be one or more dissenters to the decision who favor a 50bps cut and one or more dissenters opposed to any cut. The Summary of Economic Projections may also indicate that FOMC participants are divided on whether and when further cuts might be necessary. Tomorrow's rate cut isn&

Ed Yardeni

Is Fed About To Stimulate A Hot Economy?

Aug 28, 2025 3 min read

The bull market in stocks is making everyone who owns stocks richer. Gallup reported that 62% of Americans were invested in the stock market at the end of 2024 (chart). That's the highest since the end of 2008. We think the bull market is having a significant positive wealth effect on consumers who own equities, more than offsetting the debt effect on them of rising credit delinquencies. At

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Is In The Cloud

Jul 30, 2025 3 min read

The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement, released this morning, was a non-event. No unexpected policy shifts or drastic changes in issuance sizes were noted, so the announcement was largely as anticipated. The FOMC's decision in the afternoon to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged was widely expected, too. So was the fact that two Fed governors dissented from that decision for the first time since 1993.

Ed Yardeni

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