GDP

Remind Us: Why Did The Fed Ease?

Dec 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Productivity must be booming. Real GDP jumped 4.3% (saar) in Q3, following a 3.8% increase in Q2. Over the same period, aggregate hours worked in private industry was flat (saar). Productivity must have increased by more than 3.5% over the previous two quarters. That's consistent with our productivity-led Roaring 2020s scenario. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 22–26

Dec 21, 2025 3 min read

This looks to be a mercifully quiet holiday week that nonetheless offers a smattering of key data releases. Chief among them will be Q3's GDP and December's Consumer Confidence Index survey. Clearly, the economic fog caused by the government shutdown is following the markets into the new year. Though recent employment data have been illuminating—showing that the labor market may be a bit more robust

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

GDP IS HOT

Nov 3, 2025 2 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in Q3-2025 is 4.0% (saar) today, up from 3.9% on October 27 (chart). After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of Q3 real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. Of course, the model is based solely on data compiled

Ed Yardeni

Like Throwing Gasoline On A Fire

Sep 16, 2025 2 min read paid

The FOMC is likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps tomorrow. Among the meeting participants, there might be one or more dissenters to the decision who favor a 50bps cut and one or more dissenters opposed to any cut. The Summary of Economic Projections may also indicate that FOMC participants are divided on whether and when further cuts might be necessary. Tomorrow's rate cut isn&

Ed Yardeni

Is Fed About To Stimulate A Hot Economy?

Aug 28, 2025 3 min read

The bull market in stocks is making everyone who owns stocks richer. Gallup reported that 62% of Americans were invested in the stock market at the end of 2024 (chart). That's the highest since the end of 2008. We think the bull market is having a significant positive wealth effect on consumers who own equities, more than offsetting the debt effect on them of rising credit delinquencies. At

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Is In The Cloud

Jul 30, 2025 3 min read

The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement, released this morning, was a non-event. No unexpected policy shifts or drastic changes in issuance sizes were noted, so the announcement was largely as anticipated. The FOMC's decision in the afternoon to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged was widely expected, too. So was the fact that two Fed governors dissented from that decision for the first time since 1993.

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Is Tariffied

Apr 30, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is certainly upsetting global trade relations and confusing financial markets. This is all having an effect on the US economy, as evidenced by today's Q1 GDP report. The S&P 500 fell sharply in the morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that real GDP fell 0.3% (saar) (chart). By the end of the day, the

Ed Yardeni

Trump Slams On The Auto Tariff Brakes

Mar 27, 2025 2 min read

President Trump's Wednesday night announcement of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign motor vehicles caused a selloff in auto stocks today. Components such as engines and transmissions are also impacted, while previously trade-compliant parts from Canada and Mexico will be slapped with tariffs at a later date. At the moment, the 25% tariff is expected to be on top of those coming on April 2. That would

Ed Yardeni

Fed's Dovish Pause Boosts Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his press conference yesterday was that the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates, but the Fed still intends to lower them over time. So it's a dovish pause. That boosted stock, gold, and bitcoin prices today. Meanwhile, Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio remained relatively low this past week. It was released yesterday morning before Powell'

Ed Yardeni

Back On The Happy Trail

Jan 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Today, the US stock market quickly confirmed our view that DeepSeek is a positive for the proliferation of AI, which should boost productivity and economic growth, especially in the US. The Nasdaq added 2% as Nvidia rose 9%. Both regained much of Monday's losses from the DeepSeek mini panic. It was yet another buying opportunity in the current bull market, as we anticipated in Sunday's QT.

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Butting Heads With Washington's Profligate Crowd

Dec 19, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Going Nowhere Fast?

Oct 30, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has been going nowhere fast since the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 (chart). The same can be said for the Russell 2000. The stock market rally has stopped broadening since the Fed's rate cut! Why is that given that the current earnings season has been mostly upbeat? The problem is that the bond yield

Ed Yardeni

Page 1 of 5