GDP

GDP IS HOT

Nov 3, 2025 2 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in Q3-2025 is 4.0% (saar) today, up from 3.9% on October 27 (chart). After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of Q3 real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. Of course, the model is based solely on data compiled

Ed Yardeni

Like Throwing Gasoline On A Fire

Sep 16, 2025 2 min read paid

The FOMC is likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps tomorrow. Among the meeting participants, there might be one or more dissenters to the decision who favor a 50bps cut and one or more dissenters opposed to any cut. The Summary of Economic Projections may also indicate that FOMC participants are divided on whether and when further cuts might be necessary. Tomorrow's rate cut isn&

Ed Yardeni

Is Fed About To Stimulate A Hot Economy?

Aug 28, 2025 3 min read

The bull market in stocks is making everyone who owns stocks richer. Gallup reported that 62% of Americans were invested in the stock market at the end of 2024 (chart). That's the highest since the end of 2008. We think the bull market is having a significant positive wealth effect on consumers who own equities, more than offsetting the debt effect on them of rising credit delinquencies. At

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Is In The Cloud

Jul 30, 2025 3 min read

The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement, released this morning, was a non-event. No unexpected policy shifts or drastic changes in issuance sizes were noted, so the announcement was largely as anticipated. The FOMC's decision in the afternoon to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged was widely expected, too. So was the fact that two Fed governors dissented from that decision for the first time since 1993.

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Is Tariffied

Apr 30, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is certainly upsetting global trade relations and confusing financial markets. This is all having an effect on the US economy, as evidenced by today's Q1 GDP report. The S&P 500 fell sharply in the morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that real GDP fell 0.3% (saar) (chart). By the end of the day, the

Ed Yardeni

Trump Slams On The Auto Tariff Brakes

Mar 27, 2025 2 min read

President Trump's Wednesday night announcement of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign motor vehicles caused a selloff in auto stocks today. Components such as engines and transmissions are also impacted, while previously trade-compliant parts from Canada and Mexico will be slapped with tariffs at a later date. At the moment, the 25% tariff is expected to be on top of those coming on April 2. That would

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Fed's Dovish Pause Boosts Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his press conference yesterday was that the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates, but the Fed still intends to lower them over time. So it's a dovish pause. That boosted stock, gold, and bitcoin prices today. Meanwhile, Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio remained relatively low this past week. It was released yesterday morning before Powell'

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Back On The Happy Trail

Jan 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Today, the US stock market quickly confirmed our view that DeepSeek is a positive for the proliferation of AI, which should boost productivity and economic growth, especially in the US. The Nasdaq added 2% as Nvidia rose 9%. Both regained much of Monday's losses from the DeepSeek mini panic. It was yet another buying opportunity in the current bull market, as we anticipated in Sunday's QT.

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Bond Vigilantes Butting Heads With Washington's Profligate Crowd

Dec 19, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Going Nowhere Fast?

Oct 30, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index has been going nowhere fast since the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 (chart). The same can be said for the Russell 2000. The stock market rally has stopped broadening since the Fed's rate cut! Why is that given that the current earnings season has been mostly upbeat? The problem is that the bond yield

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The Economic Week Ahead: October 28 - Nov 1

Oct 27, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with key indicators for the labor market, economic growth, and inflation, as well as more Q3 S&P 500 earnings. The first estimate of Q3 GDP will be followed by the September PCED inflation rate and October payroll employment. We're expecting continued strong growth and disinflation, though we anticipate that employment was muddled by one-time factors and that some components of the

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The US Economy Is Roaring!

Oct 2, 2024 3 min read

Last Thursday on September 26, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released several very significant upward revisions to real GDP, real GDI, personal income, and personal saving. Collectively, they blew away the hard landing scenario. They didn't leave much if any room for the soft landing scenario either. They suggest that productivity growth will be revised higher and unit labor cost inflation will be revised lower. These revisions

Ed Yardeni

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