Geopolitics

MARKET CALL: Oil Price Going Straight Up As Strait Of Hormuz Remains Closed

Mar 8, 2026 4 min read paid

This evening, the prices of a barrel of Brent and WTI crude oil are up about $15 to $107. The price of gold is falling because the dollar's foreign exchange value is rising. The 10-year bond yield is up to 4.195%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down by more than 1.7%. The Nikkei is down 4.5%. This chaos in the financial

Ed Yardeni

Straitjacket: Iran's Chaos War Strategy

Mar 5, 2026 4 min read

On Tuesday, we warned: "We've been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It's hard to imagine that the IRGC won't use drones and speed boats to maintain their effective blockade of the Strait. If they are successful in doing so, the correction could be closer to 15%." When the war

Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait Versus Home On The Range

Mar 4, 2026 4 min read

Oil prices stabilized today, so stock prices rose. We expected a pullback in the S&P 500 in early 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% from its record high of 6987.60 on January 27 through Wednesday's close. It was up 0.77% today. Is the pullback over? If so, that's quite remarkable, suggesting investors believe Iran has lost the war and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

On The Fog Of War & Having Second Thoughts

Mar 3, 2026 4 min read

Our initial reaction to the latest war in the Middle East was that it isn't likely to last long. However, wars are hard to predict. The fog of war can be very disorienting. The US and Israel killed the top leaders of Iran's regime during the first day of their attacks on the country. So we thought that might set the stage for a short war.

Ed Yardeni

SWEET & SOUR: Iran, China, M-PMI, & PPI

Mar 2, 2026 3 min read

I. Hot war with Iran and cold war with China We remain in the short-war camp on the outlook for the current conflict in the Middle East. The stock market seems to agree, since it barely budged today, though defense stocks rose significantly (chart). Geopolitical crises tend to create buying opportunities in the stock market (chart). The problem is that everyone knows that, which diminishes the magnitude of opportunities! Following

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

DEEP DIVE: The Implications Of The War In The Middle East

Mar 1, 2026 8 min read

This is an excerpt from our latest Morning Briefing, which we are sharing with our QuickTakes community. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on Saturday along with 40 other top Iranian leaders when the US and Israel launched a military campaign against Iran’s Mullah regime. In a February 28 post on The Free Press, historian Niall Ferguson observed that President Donald Trump’s approach to dealing

Ed Yardeni

GEOPOLITICS: The Clock Is Ticking In The Middle East

Feb 27, 2026 3 min read

The US has assembled its largest military presence in the Middle East since 2003, including two aircraft carriers and F-22 stealth fighters. Indirect talks in Geneva between US envoys (Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner) and Iranian officials ended Thursday without a breakthrough. The Trump administration has warned of "drastic consequences" if Iran does not make significant nuclear concessions. Israel has opened bomb shelters and warned Lebanon that its

Ed Yardeni

Troubles In Tokyo & Nuuk Hit Stocks & Bonds

Jan 20, 2026 3 min read paid

What do Tokyo and Nuuk have in common? They are the capital cities of Japan and Greenland. They are the two epicenters of the shocks that hit stock and bond markets worldwide today. In Tokyo, bond yields are soaring, suggesting that a debt crisis may be underway. In Nuuk, the locals are siding with Denmark in their opposition to President Donald Trump's plan to acquire Greenland "one

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Don't Cry For Him, Venezuela

Jan 4, 2026 4 min read paid

We expected the first half of 2026 to be volatile for stocks. It's only January 4, and we can add Venezuela to our list of unsettling developments. Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan president captured by the United States on Saturday, is being held in a notorious Brooklyn jail. President Donald Trump said the US will "run" Venezuela. The geopolitical fallout could be troublesome. The Chinese government might

Ed Yardeni

Gold Is The New Bitcoin!

Oct 14, 2025 4 min read paid

Investors are mining for gold and rare earth minerals. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the VanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) are up 57.3% and 104.4% ytd (Fig. 1 below). The trading volumes of both have increased sharply in recent weeks (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3). Both have been benefiting from rising geopolitical tensions between the US and both Russia and China. On October

Ed Yardeni

GOOD MARKET CALL: Gold

Oct 6, 2025 3 min read

From time to time, we will review and update some of our good market calls. We hope this provides a helpful perspective on our approach to market forecasting. Today, let's review and update our thoughts on the outlook for gold: (1) We first turned bullish on the price of gold on April 7, 2024. We noted that it was breaking out above $2000 per ounce to new record

Ed Yardeni

A New Day In The Middle East?

Jun 24, 2025 3 min read paid

Any day with a ceasefire in the Middle East is a good day for stocks. On Monday, President Donald Trump declared that the "12-Day War" between Israel and Iran is over. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% yesterday and today on that news to 6092.18 (chart). That's only 0.9% below the February 19 record high of 6144.15. The market rose even

Ed Yardeni

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