Geopolitics

Apocalypse Now, Not! Lowering Recession Odds.

Apr 7, 2026 4 min read paid

Two hours before his latest deadline, President Donald Trump canceled Obliteration Day. He agreed tonight to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The deal was brokered by Pakistan. Trump confirmed the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran as a basis for negotiating a permanent peace agreement. Israel separately agreed to suspend its bombing during negotiations. The market reaction was swift. Crude oil prices tumbled, while S&

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

POTUS Sees An Exit Ramp Up Ahead

Apr 1, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War and the President's Speech Yesterday, we concluded that the S&P 500's pullback bottomed on Monday, just shy of a 10% correction. The S&P 500 fell on Monday to 6343.72, down 9.1% from its January 27 record high. That low could be retested, but we think that yesterday's big rally, combined with the recent drop in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

The War, The Yield Curve, The Fed, Private Credit, and Gold

Mar 30, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The War Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and military theorist, famously observed that "war is a mere continuation of politics by other means." He argued that war is never an end in itself. Instead, it is a tool used by states to achieve a specific political objective. Therefore, the military strategy must always be subordinate to the political goal. If the political aim changes, the military

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Stock P/Es Discounting Higher-For-Longer Oil Prices & Interest Rates

Mar 29, 2026 5 min read paid

The fog of war is getting thicker because of the likelihood of US boots on the ground (the "bog of war"). The US Department of War has deployed 15,000 troops to the war zone, raising the risks of a longer war and more American casualties, which will cause an uproar in the US. On Tuesday, March 3, we wrote: "We've been expecting a pullback

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Eurozone's Latest Energy Crisis

Mar 26, 2026 5 min read

NEWS FLASH: President Donald Trump postponed Obliteration Day again today, until Monday, April 6 at 8:00 pm EST. He said he is granting a request from the Iranian government to extend the pause on potential airstrikes on Iran's power plants by an additional 10 days. That will prolong uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets. It also means oil prices will remain elevated for at least another

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

'Obliteration Day' Was Postponed. Time To Buy Stocks?

Mar 24, 2026 4 min read paid

Stocks rallied on Monday because President Donald Trump postponed his 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if the country doesn't fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, he extended the deadline by five days, until Friday, while talks with Iran continue. Investors and traders recall that stocks soared on April 9, 2025, an hour before the stock market closed after

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Odds Of A Longer War Increasing As Trump Set To Declare Victory

Mar 22, 2026 5 min read paid

Is the fog of war thinning or thickening? President Donald Trump has suggested that he is getting ready to declare victory. However, the Iranians have been at war with the US and Israel for 47 years and are showing no signs of ending it. On Friday night, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is "getting very close to meeting our objectives" and is considering "winding

Ed Yardeni

Why Is Gold Melting?

Mar 19, 2026 4 min read

There's plenty of geopolitical risk today, along with higher global inflation and larger US federal budget deficits ahead. Yet, the price of an ounce of gold is down sharply today. It fell to an intraday low of $4508 per ounce at 9:02 am EST, down from a recent closing high of $5311 on Monday, March 2, two days after the start of the current war in the

Ed Yardeni

Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?

Mar 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war is back. Oil prices jumped today after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing facility. Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Qatar then reported that Iranian missile strikes had damaged a key liquefied natural gas export facility. Early this morning at 2:17 a.m. EST, the price of a barrel of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Oil Shock Is Latest Test Of US Economy's Resilience

Mar 17, 2026 3 min read paid

The latest crude oil price spike has drawn comparisons to previous similar spikes (charts). There were six of them before the current one, since 1970. The first five coincided with recessions. The two during the 1970s caused two recessions and boosted inflation, resulting in a lost "stagflationary" decade for the stock market. The previous spike in 2022 coincided with a bear market in stocks, but there was no

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

A Break In The Weather

Mar 16, 2026 4 min read paid

Forecasting the weather is easier than forecasting the timeline and outcome of a war. The expression "the fog of war" is a bit confusing because fog often lifts within hours. Wars last much longer. Today, we had "a break in the weather." The war is ongoing, but there were sighs of relief in the energy and financial markets. That's because some tankers are getting

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: The War Is Getting Foggier

Mar 14, 2026 3 min read

Why has the stock market held up so well since the start of the war? The S&P 500 is down only 4.96% from its record high on January 27 and 3.59% since the start of the war on February 28 (chart). It fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday and held it. The obvious explanation is that the market is discounting a short war.

Ed Yardeni

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