Global Market Call

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Gone Wild

Oct 4, 2026 5 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes have gone wild worldwide, pushing government bond yields higher in developed and emerging markets alike. A month ago, we asked whether rising yields reflected stronger growth, higher inflation, or looming fiscal crises. We still think the answer is mostly growth. The exception is where government finances are weakest. There, bond investors are charging a fiscal-risk premium. France may be on the verge of a full-blown

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Interest Rates Are Troubling

Sep 26, 2026 4 min read

I. Global Economy The global economy has been surprisingly resilient so far this year. There were dips earlier this year, when the Middle East war was in full swing; but in recent months, global industrial production and exports have rebounded to their record highs from before the war (chart). The All Country World MSCI forward revenues per share has continued to soar to record highs this year (chart). The All

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Stocks Weathering Storm In Bonds

Sep 20, 2026 4 min read paid

Central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan all raised their policy rates over the last two weeks. Bond yields are rising nearly everywhere. Neither development has broken the global stock bull market, as earnings forecasts keep getting marked up. The Stay Home and Go Global investment strategies have been tracking each other fairly closely in recent months, with limited dispersion between the two. The divergence instead has been across

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Will The Bull Market Survive Higher Oil Prices & Bond Yields?

Sep 13, 2026 5 min read paid

The price of Brent crude is back above $100 a barrel. Government bond yields are rising nearly everywhere, with the 10-year yields of Australia and the UK both above 5.00% and the US’s at 4.97%. Either development would normally be enough to break a global bull market in stocks. Neither has so far. That's because corporate earnings keep climbing. The Fed, the Bank of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Bull Market In Stocks Despite Bear Market In Bonds

Aug 30, 2026 4 min read paid

Bond yields are rising worldwide, but that's not stopping the global bull market in stocks. For now, investors are reading higher yields as a sign of economic growth rather than a threat to it, so the "Go Global" trade is still working. South Korea and Taiwan are back at the top of August's leaderboard after July's shakeout. The AI-linked markets that

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: China Dumping Its Excess Production On The World

Aug 23, 2026 5 min read paid

The Go Global trade continues to work; August has not interrupted it. Asia's AI-linked stock markets are back in the performance-derby lead after July's shakeout, and the other emerging markets that led this year are leading again. Last week's action was in bonds. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the Treasury's buyback program for longer-dated debt, lifting repurchases to at

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Momentum Is Back

Aug 16, 2026 3 min read paid

Momentum is back in the Go Global trade. The rotation that hit the AI-linked stock markets in July has reversed, and the leadership that held for most of 2026 is back in play. South Korea is the clearest sign of this development. The KOSPI is up more than 20% from its July 30 closing low. That ends a brutal stretch. The index fell almost 40% from its June peak

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Will Yen Yin Or Yang Financial Markets?

Aug 9, 2026 4 min read paid

The Go Global investment strategy has outperformed Stay Home this year, and August has not changed that. Korea and Taiwan are back at the front of the performance rankings to start the month, with China lagging again. Last week, Japan and the US jointly bought yen for the first time since 1998, following its fall to a near 40-year low of around 164 yen per dollar. US Treasury officials

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Damage From AI & War Shocks Has Been Minimal

Aug 2, 2026 4 min read paid

The global economy has been hit by two shocks this year and absorbed them well. The war that started in March pushed oil prices higher and disrupted global supply chains. The AI trade then took a dive in July, with Asian semiconductor stocks hit the hardest. Neither the initial shocks nor the aftershocks seem to have damaged the global economy so far. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading Emerging Markets To Market Weight

Jul 19, 2026 4 min read paid

We are downgrading emerging markets to market weight, not because the Go Global thesis is broken but because four separate short-term headwinds are converging at once: (1) The price of oil is back above $80 a barrel as the IRGC keeps the Strait of Hormuz contested. (2) The FOMC is hawkish. With inflation still sticky and a solid labor market, financial markets are currently pricing in one rate hike

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace & War

Jul 12, 2026 4 min read paid

In our March 4, 2026 QuickTakes, we wrote that the war between the US and Iran might last longer than widely expected. We suggested that any peace deal with Iran's government would effectively be vetoed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps simply by their threatening to attack ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. "These terrorists are likely to be hard to eradicate with just air power,

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: AI Trade Depresses EM Trade

Jul 5, 2026 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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