Global Stocks

GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: French Toast & Brazilian Bossa Nova

Oct 10, 2026 4 min read

I. Bonds The global bond market remains jittery, though yields may be starting to stabilize after their rout in recent months (chart). Nevertheless, geopolitical turbulence may still buffet them. Yields have risen for an assortment of reasons, from better-than-expected economic growth (US) to fiscal instability concerns (France). Brazil and China are the only major countries showing declines in bond yields so far this year (chart). Bond yields have

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Gone Wild

Oct 4, 2026 5 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes have gone wild worldwide, pushing government bond yields higher in developed and emerging markets alike. A month ago, we asked whether rising yields reflected stronger growth, higher inflation, or looming fiscal crises. We still think the answer is mostly growth. The exception is where government finances are weakest. There, bond investors are charging a fiscal-risk premium. France may be on the verge of a full-blown

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Don't Cry For Him, Venezuela

Jan 4, 2026 4 min read paid

We expected the first half of 2026 to be volatile for stocks. It's only January 4, and we can add Venezuela to our list of unsettling developments. Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan president captured by the United States on Saturday, is being held in a notorious Brooklyn jail. President Donald Trump said the US will "run" Venezuela. The geopolitical fallout could be troublesome. The Chinese government might

Ed Yardeni

Update: Stay Home Versus Go Global

Aug 27, 2025 3 min read

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue after the stock market closed today. Revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters. Nvidia is one of several mega-cap technology stocks that have fueled the bull market in the US, causing it to outperform overseas stock markets. The outperformance was briefly interrupted earlier this year, but the US market seems to be back on its winning track. We

Ed Yardeni

Foreign Investors Aren't Following The Dollar-Is-Bad Script

Aug 19, 2025 2 min read paid

By most accounts, almost everyone is bearish on the dollar. Nearly everyone is selling dollars to buy euros and gold, according to this widely held view. Global investors are rebalancing their equity portfolios out of US stocks into European stocks. The only problem with this narrative is that the monthly capital flows data collected by the Treasury International Capital System (TICS), which was updated on Friday, show that US foreign

Ed Yardeni

Liberation Day II

Jul 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Liberation Day I occurred on Wednesday, April 2 after the stock market closed, when President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners. The immediate reaction was what we called "Annihilation Days" in the stock and bond markets until April 9, when Liberation Day I was postponed until July 9 (chart). Today, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs again on 14 countries. Their governments have until August

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: 'There Will Be Flexibility'

Mar 23, 2025 3 min read paid

When President Donald Trump was asked on Friday about his tariff policies, he said: "I didn’t change my mind. I don’t change. But the word ‘flexibility’ is an important word. Sometimes there's flexibility. So there will be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal." A WSJ article posted at 5:26 pm today is titled "White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs." It

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Unexceptional Performance Of US Stocks So Far In 2025

Feb 17, 2025 3 min read paid

US stocks haven't been exceptional since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5, 2024. That's if the performances on the major country MSCI stock market indexes are measured in local currencies (chart). So far, Trump's tariff turmoil seems to be weighing more on the US, Canada, Mexico, and many other emerging markets than on China and most European countries. That could change

Ed Yardeni

Trump 2.0 Supercharges Our Stay Home Investment Strategy

Nov 14, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been bullish on the dollar for a while. Since, the Fed's September 18 meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 5.8% (chart). Roughly half of that move has occurred since last Tuesday's US elections. The strong dollar confirms our view that the Fed has already cut the federal funds rate too much too soon, and now likely won’t be lowering

Ed Yardeni

Global Monetary Fire Hose To The Rescue!

Sep 24, 2024 3 min read paid

Chinese stocks rose 4.1% overnight thanks to the flurry of easing measures from its central bank (chart). The Peoples Bank of China lowered bank reserve requirements, cut interest rates, and will provide leverage to brokers to buy stocks. Propping up stocks with government funding sounds more like panic than proactivity to us. But the skinny of the matter is that the Fed's 50bps rate cut last week

Ed Yardeni

Tight Fed Fueling Foreign Stock Market Rallies?

May 8, 2024 3 min read paid

In the past, the major foreign central banks often followed the Fed's lead. This time, they aren't waiting for the Fed to ease before doing so themselves. That's boosting the foreign exchange value of the dollar as well as many overseas stock markets. Consider the following: (1) The Swedish Riksbank cut its official rate by a quarter-point today, to 3.75% from 4.

Ed Yardeni

Inflation: China Is Killing It

Dec 18, 2023 2 min read paid

What have we learned about inflation over the past year? One of the main reasons that the US doesn't need to have a recession to bring down inflation is that China is having the recession for us. China's property bubble has burst, and the deflationary consequences are far greater and more global than those following the bursting of similar bubbles in Japan during the late 1980s

Ed Yardeni

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