Housing Market

Mixed Messages From Manufacturing & Housing

Aug 16, 2022 1 min read paid

July was a good month for manufacturing and a bad one for the housing industry. Industrial production, which is one of the four components of the Index of Coincident Indicators, rose 0.6% m/m to a new record high during July (chart). Housing starts tumbled during the month. Building permits, which is one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, also fell during July. There'

Ed Yardeni

China Scrambles to Avoid Lehman Moment

Jul 20, 2022 1 min read

How do you say "Lehman Moment" in Chinese? The Chinese government is scrambling to avert such a calamity resulting from China's real estate bust. There's a global housing recession underway, led by China. That's why the price of copper has been in a freefall, plunging 33% from $4.94 on March 4, 2022 to $3.31 today (chart). We’ve been tracking

Ed Yardeni

Homebuilders' Sentiment Plummets

Jul 18, 2022 1 min read

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a survey designed to gauge market conditions, found builder sentiment dropped 12 points to 55 in July. That marked the largest one-month drop in the survey’s 37-year history with the exception of April 2020, when the reading plummeted 42 points to 30 during the pandemic lockdown. The S&P 500 Homebuilding Index, which is highly correlated with

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 7/18/22

Jul 17, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead is a light one for economic indicators. Monday starts out with May's Treasury International Capital System data on net capital inflows into the US. April's data showed a near-record $1.5 trillion in private net capital inflows, which certainly explains why the dollar has been so strong. This is consistent with our TINAC theme, that "there is no alternative country" to

Ed Yardeni

Mortgage Applications Falling, Consumer Credit Balances Rising

Jun 8, 2022 1 min read paid

The housing market may be falling into a recession, but consumers continue to spend—though they have needed to borrow more to do so. The seasonally adjusted purchase Index for mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, decreased 7% w/w and 21% y/y during the week ended June 3. Record-high home prices combined with this year’s spike in the mortgage rate to 5.40% have clobbered

Ed Yardeni

Homebuilders Slammed As Sales Fall, Costs Soar

May 24, 2022 1 min read

There's lots of stagflation in the new home market. During April, new home sales (registered when contracts are signed) dropped 16.6% m/m and the months' supply of new homes jumped to 9.0 from 6.9 in March. Here's more: (1) The m/m sales declines were widespread in the South (-19.8%), Midwest (-15.1), West (-13.8), and Northeast (-5.9)

Ed Yardeni