Inflation

Stagflation’s Absence, Trump’s Deal-Making, Government’s Higher Debt

Jun 11, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market didn't do much today. Neither did the bond market. But the price of a barrel of crude oil rose, and so did the price of an ounce of gold. President Donald Trump announced another deal with China. The US will allow Chinese students to continue attending American colleges, and China will continue to provide rare earth minerals to American manufacturers. Tariffs imposed on each country

Ed Yardeni

Betting On Bullish Hard Data, Not Bearish Soft Data

Jun 10, 2025 2 min read paid

The “soft” economic data releases have been weak, while the “hard” data have been strong in recent months. The former includes surveys of consumers, small business owners, and purchasing managers. We've been betting on the resilience of the economy, as confirmed by the hard data. Stock investors seem to agree with our view. The purchasing managers indexes for both manufacturing (M-PMI) and non-manufacturing (NM-PMI) remained weak through May.

Ed Yardeni

Inflationary Expectations Decline In US As China Deflates

Jun 9, 2025 3 min read paid

In the hilarious comedy movie "What About Bob," Bill Murray, who plays Bob, tells his shrink "that there are two types of people in this world. Those who like Neil Diamond and those who don't." There also seem to be two types of respondents to surveys of inflationary expectations: like those included in the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) survey and those included in the

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 9 - 13

Jun 8, 2025 4 min read

Many of the questions the Fed has about how Trump's trade war is impacting the inflation outlook will get timely answers this week. Well, updates at least, since only President Donald Trump knows how long Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) will continue disrupting the world's biggest economy. On Friday, we learned that half of Fed's dual mandate is doing just fine. The full-employment

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 27 - 30

May 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is starting with another tariff whiplash. On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed hefty reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners but postponed them for 90 days on April 9. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on the European Union, Apple Inc., and perhaps Samsung and other tech giants to be named later. But on Sunday, he postponed Friday's June 1 tariff of 50%

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Let Them Eat Tariffs!

May 19, 2025 3 min read paid

Walmart warned last week that it will have to raise prices because of President Donald Trump's tariffs. On Saturday, the President advised the country's largest retailer that it should "eat the tariffs." Retailers operate with very thin profit margins (chart). If they don't raise their prices, they stand to lose money on their sales. That's not a sustainable business model.

Ed Yardeni

Not Much Stagflation Today

May 15, 2025 4 min read

Earlier this year, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he and President Donald Trump were focusing on the 10-year Treasury bond yield as a key metric for economic health, rather than the Fed's short-term interest rate. He stated, "He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury," indicating a strategy to manage borrowing costs through fiscal policy rather than pressuring the Fed to cut rates.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

A Quiet Day For A Change

May 13, 2025 3 min read members

The Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn't up or down by 1,000 points today. The S&P 500's VIX was back down below 20 on Monday and again today (chart). The yield spread between corporate junk bonds and the 10-year Treasury bond has narrowed recently. The latter seems to be settling down around 4.50%, in the middle of our 2025 range of 4.25%

Ed Yardeni

FOMC Day Minus One: Waiting For Nothing

May 6, 2025 3 min read paid

The federal funds rate (FFR) futures market has consistently been predicting several cuts in the FFR since March 2023 (chart). The Fed did deliver three rate cuts totaling 100bps from September 18 through December 18, 2024. Since then, Fed officials have said that they are in no hurry to lower the FFR again. Nevertheless, the FFR futures market is currently anticipating two rate cuts over the next six months and

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Are Stirred, Not Shaken

Apr 28, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down roughly 10% from its record high on February 19. Considering Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT), that's not too bad. Also recall all the angst unleashed when the 10-year US Treasury bond yield spiked from 4.00% to 4.50% right after President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs. Now it is back down to 4.20%

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Remain Unhappy

Apr 10, 2025 3 min read

It was not a happy day in the bond market. Neither was it a happy day in the stock market: Bond Market. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 4.45% this evening, up from a recent low of 4.01% on April 4, two days after Liberation Day. Yesterday, President Donald Trump partially postponed Liberation Day because the bond market was "tricky." It remained tricky today. Yields

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: APRIL 7-11

Apr 6, 2025 3 min read paid

While Trump's tariffs will likely dominate the headlines, the economic week ahead will also focus on the inflationary impact of US import duties. We expect March's CPI (Thu) and PPI (Fri) to confirm our concern that higher goods prices will lift headline inflation measures quickly, preventing an easing policy response from the Fed. In other words, the Fed Put is likely on hold this year even

Ed Yardeni

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