Labor Market

Bond Vigilantes Dare Bessent To Use His Bazooka

Sep 10, 2026 5 min read paid

On September 1, we warned you that September is back. We wrote, "Everyone in the stock market knows that September is the cruelest month for stocks. But when it is a bad month, it tends to create buying opportunities for a year-end rally that often starts in October." So far, the month has been crueler to bond investors than to stock investors. The 10-year US Treasury

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Bessent Tells Bond Vigilantes: "I Am The House"

Sep 9, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Bessent Intervening On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of the Treasury's buyback program in the long end of the yield curve. Today, the Treasury unveiled a $6 billion buyback operation in the 10- to 20-year sector, with Bessent stating that the goal is to ensure "that there is not a bad, big adverse outcome" in the Treasury market. However, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Goldilocks Jobs Report Just In Time For Labor Day

Sep 4, 2026 4 min read

The August US jobs report is among the best we have seen in some time and provided an uplifting backdrop for the Labor Day weekend. Labor demand is solid and becoming more broad-based, unemployment remains low, and labor supply improved in August. At the same time, moderate wage growth and solid productivity gains show that inflationary pressures are subdued in the labor market. In other words, the report reinforces

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Beware: September Is Back Again

Sep 1, 2026 5 min read paid

I. A Month of Opportunities "The Waste Land" is a poem by T.S. Eliot. It opens with the line, "April is the cruelest month." Apparently, Eliot never managed a stock portfolio. Everyone in the stock market knows that September is the cruelest month for stocks (chart). But when it is a bad month, it tends to create buying opportunities for a year-end rally that

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

July CPI: The Fed Is Still In The Woods

Aug 12, 2026 4 min read paid

The July CPI report was good news for Fed officials and the rest of us. Inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. However, the inflation picture may not be as bright as the CPI report suggests. New York Fed President John Williams recently said that if core PCED inflation readings remain above 0.2% m/m during the second half of this year, then the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

People Close To Warsh Are Talking About Him

Aug 6, 2026 4 min read paid

I. The Fed Today's Financial Times ran an exclusive story about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It is based on insights provided by unidentified people close to him. They say that he admits that he has made some mistakes, "including failing to reinforce his key messages on price stability." In our opinion, he has been unequivocal about his commitment to restore price stability. He just hasn'

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market's Summer Stall Is Over Thanks To The ‘OK Economy’ & FEMO

Aug 4, 2026 5 min read paid

In an interview with CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and Iran could reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz to "freedom of movement" as soon as "today or tomorrow." Following his remarks—alongside reports of ongoing regional mediation via Qatar and Oman—crude oil prices dropped significantly. Brent crude fell below $80/barrel. The US Treasury yield curve edged lower

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US Economy Powers On As FIFA Spending & IRS Tax Rebates Fade

Jul 21, 2026 4 min read paid

As confetti and red-and-yellow streamers rained down on the roaring crowd, the final whistle blew, and Spain lifted the World Cup trophy after a thrilling 1:0 victory over Argentina. The games are over. The fans are heading home, and an important economic tailwind is beginning to fade. According to Bank of America, the FIFA World Cup generated roughly $20 billion in economic activity across the United States,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Well-Balanced US Labor Market

Jun 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock prices of ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup sold off sharply last year as hiring cooled. Employers froze their headcounts as they assessed the impacts of Trump's tariffs and of AI technologies on their businesses (chart). On May 8, we wrote that the labor market was showing early signs of improvement and that employment-related stocks may have bottomed. So far, so good. Employers now seem to have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JUNE 1-5

May 30, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 climbed to another record high on Friday, closing at 7,580.05. Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) and falling oil prices boosted stock prices. Brent crude settled at $92.05 a barrel, the lowest weekly close since April 17. Axios reports that the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire-extension deal, pending President Trump's approval. The odds that the US blockade of the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Inflating, But Not Stagnating

May 28, 2026 5 min read paid

The three major US stock market price indexes (i.e., the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DJIA) rose to record highs again today. So did the Russell 2000. Leading the way higher were technology stocks. Driving stock prices higher was a report that the US and Iran have "mostly agreed" to extend their ceasefire by 60 days. The market ignored a warning from ExxonMobil that oil inventories

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

CPI Heats Up But, Unlike 2021-22, Wages Remain Cool

May 12, 2026 4 min read paid

During 2021 and 2022, a wage-price spiral was exacerbated by widespread global supply chain disruptions and a spike in oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (charts). This time, the war in the Middle East has caused oil prices to spike. Some supply chains have been disrupted. But a wage-price spiral is less likely. The labor market is in equilibrium this time (chart). In 2021-22,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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