Labor Market

Another Bad JOLTS For Job Market

Oct 1, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) closed today at 666 (chart). I have fond memories of that number. I wrote on March 16, 2009: "We’ve been to Hades and back. The S&P 500 bottomed last week on March 6 at an intraday low of 666. This is a number commonly associated with the Devil. . . . The latest relief rally was sparked by lots of good

Ed Yardeni

25 Or 50, To Be Or Not To Be?

Sep 11, 2025 3 min read members

Following yesterday's cooler-than-expected PPI and today's as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenting votes among voting members. Following today's jump in last week's initial unemployment claims, meeting participants might consider a 50-basis-point cut, but we doubt that they will opt for that, as the majority would

Ed Yardeni

Hot PPI Inflation & Cold Jobless Claims

Aug 14, 2025 2 min read paid

We've acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July's cold employment report and July's lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we've also noted that more economic indicators will be released before the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. So we haven't abandoned our increasingly contrary view that "none-and-done in 2025&

Ed Yardeni

Musical Chairs & Policies At The Fed

Aug 7, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump on Thursday nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. Trump said Miran will serve in the role until January 31, 2026, while he continues a search for a permanent replacement. The Senate will probably confirm his nomination quickly and before the September meeting of the FOMC. If so, then there could be at least

Ed Yardeni

Bond Yield Rises, Ignoring Weak ADP Payrolls Report

Jul 2, 2025 3 min read

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday's report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in layoffs. The bond market chose to tune out the uptick in continuing unemployment claims in yesterday's report, and it also ignored today's

Ed Yardeni

More Bad News Caused By Trump Turmoil 2.0

Apr 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 has caused a stock market selloff that is in full swing. The Nasdaq fell around 5% and the S&P 500 nearly 4% in the first hour of trading. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16bps to 4.03% as recession fears outweigh inflation fears. Yesterday's Liberation Day festivities in the Rose Garden set off a freefall in stock prices on increasing fears

Ed Yardeni

Powell Presses The Pause Button

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read

The FOMC left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged yesterday at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely expected. At his presser yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed might pause cutting rates for a while. He mentioned five times that the Fed is in no hurry to resume the cutting. He said eight times that the Fed needs to see further progress in lowering inflation. Powell acknowledged that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Jobs Market: Onwards & Upwards

Dec 3, 2024 2 min read paid

We've contended all year that the labor market was normalizing from the unsustainable pace of hiring during the pandemic. We disagreed with the view that it was weakening. Now we are turning more upbeat about the outlook for employment. Our bet is that the animal spirits unleased by Trump 2.0 will soon be reflected in more job openings and a faster pace of hiring. Today's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 4 - 8

Nov 3, 2024 3 min read paid

The blockbuster event in the week ahead is Tuesday's presidential election. We're rooting for gridlock, or a divided government. Both parties seem intent on passing policies which would widen the federal government budget deficit that's already too wide. Notwithstanding the stimulative outlook for fiscal policy, the Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 bps on Thursday to a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Help Still Wanted

Oct 29, 2024 2 min read paid

We don't expect to be disappointed by October's payroll employment report on Friday. Both September's JOLTS report and October's consumer confidence survey suggest that the labor market remains in good shape. Better yet, it may be improving. The impact of bad weather and strike-related layoffs will make a dent in October's payroll employment number, but that doesn't mean

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Passing Tests With Flying Colors

Oct 3, 2024 3 min read paid

While everyone in our business breathlessly awaits tomorrow's payroll employment report, the economy passed the brunt of this week's labor market tests with flying colors. Of course, the labor market is showing signs of easing. But that's mostly compared to the record tightness seen a couple years ago. We think the labor market is normalizing. Meanwhile, the economy continues to prove stronger than many

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Less Help Wanted: Sign of Trouble for Labor Market?

Aug 27, 2024 3 min read paid

Nvidia is set to report quarterly results tomorrow. We bet that the company won't disappoint unless it announces that its highly anticipated Blackwell chip isn't quite ready for primetime. A CNBC headline trumpeted today that Nvidia is the world's "most important stock." It certainly has had an amazing run as its revenues have soared and so has its forward profit margin, currently

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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