Market Call

MARKET CALL: The Trump/Musk/Vivek/Santa Rally

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

For better or worse, Trump's New World Order will certainly be different from Biden's Old World Order. Moreover, the globalists of the World Economic Forum, headed by Klaus Schwab (and Greta Thunberg), are about to be seriously challenged by Trump's anti-globalists. Klaus has been calling for the "Great Reset" including a "stakeholder economy," replacing fossil fuels with solar and wind

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Bitcoin Going To The Moon, To Mars, To Infinity & Beyond!

Nov 25, 2024 3 min read

We are increasingly asked about the outlook for Bitcoin. We don't have a clue because it doesn't provide investors with any way to value it. We know that the supply of the cryptocurrency is limited, which is why the supply of alternative cryptocurrencies seems to be expanding as fast as the price of Bitcoin is soaring. However, the increased supply of alternatives doesn't seem

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Powell's Latest Pirouette

Nov 17, 2024 3 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is an accomplished danseur. His pirouette's are masterful. He did another such pivot on Friday in prepared remarks for a speech [starts at 19:00] to business leaders in Dallas. He said that, "the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." That's what we've been saying since Powell

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Trend Spotting

Nov 3, 2024 3 min read

Some of our best friends are technicians. Ed was at Prudential Equity Group at the same time as Ralph Acampora, the renowned market historian and technical analyst. Ralph's analysis often confirmed Ed's fundamental analysis. So in our spare time we like to follow the charts for clues about the future, and we occasionally spot trends that seem to support our forecasts. Currently, we are focusing on

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Sweep Stakes

Oct 27, 2024 3 min read paid

We still think that gridlock would be the most bullish outcome of the November 5 presidential and congressional elections, making it difficult for the next president to deliver on all the promises he or she made during their campaigns to win the White House. More than half of our Founding Fathers were lawyers. They designed a system of checks and balances that required lawyers to get anything done and even

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Back To Higher For Longer?

Oct 6, 2024 2 min read

Remember the "higher for longer" mantra about the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) during the spring? It turned into "lower and sooner" this summer in response to the economy's soft patch. After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to "no rush to ease further" during the fall. We can't rule out "higher for

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: October Is Here. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Sep 29, 2024 3 min read paid

We asked the very same question at the start of September, and were hard pressed to come up with an answer. We concluded: "So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher. We are still expecting a yearend rally to 5800 on the S&P 500, but it could already be underway." The S&P 500 rose 1.6% during September

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Next Surprise

Sep 22, 2024 3 min read

So far, September isn't living up to its bad reputation for the stock market now that the S&P 500 and the DJIA are at record highs. At the start of the month, on September 2, we asked, "What Could Possibly Go Wrong?" We wrote: "We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Worst & The Best Of Times

Sep 15, 2024 2 min read

A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens famously begins, ''It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.'' Two weeks ago was the worst week for the stock market so far this year. Last week was the best week for the stock market so far this year. In the July 28 Quicktakes, we wrote: "Our hunch is that the stock market

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Is Here. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Sep 2, 2024 3 min read paid

September has a history of being the worst month of the year for the stock market (chart). It's hard to imagine that it will be a bad one this year since the Fed is widely expected to start its latest monetary easing cycle on September 18 with a 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR). In addition, the FOMC will release its latest Summary of Economic Projections

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Did Powell Just Pour Gasoline On Stock Market's Fire?

Aug 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was unambiguously dovish, as we observed in that day's QT. It was also unambiguously bullish for the stock market because it confirmed widespread expectations that September's cut in the federal funds rate is in the bag and will be followed by several more cuts. However, the stock market may have discounted most of these

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bungee Jump

Aug 18, 2024 3 min read

Last week's economic data confirmed that consumers are still consuming, the labor market is fine, small business owners are more optimistic, and inflation is still moderating. On Friday, at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate that the economy is performing well and that inflation is getting closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. He is likely to support market expectations that

Ed Yardeni

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