May 5, 2024 2 min read

Market Call: Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear, Again.

Nothing to worry about? The geopolitical risk premium in the price of oil has dropped sharply since early April. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil slipped to $82.96 from a recent peak of $91.17 on Friday, April 5 (chart). Stock market sentiment indicators have turned less bullish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Last week's economic indicators were on the weak side. But that's bullish too since that increases the odds that the Fed Put might make a comeback. Indeed, the two-year Treasury yield fell back below 5.00% late last week to 4.81% on Friday from 5.04% on Tuesday. So a couple of Fed rate cuts over the rest of the year are back on the table. Fed officials might start sounding less hawkish and more dovish. The earnings reporting season is going relatively well. In other words, it's still a bull market. Consider the following:

(1) The latest bull/bear ratios compiled by Investors Intelligence and AAII have dropped back to their historical averages (chart).

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