Nasdaq

Will Rate Cuts Continue Unless Inflation Behaves Badly?

Dec 11, 2024 4 min read

Today's CPI report for November matched expectations. The CME FedWatch tool shows 95% odds that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps next week, and the Fed doesn't like to surprise market expectations. The Nasdaq front-ran our forecast to reach 20,000 by mid-2025 by reaching that milestone today (chart). Now we are aiming for 22,000 by mid-2025. Our yearend target

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

From Election Uncertainty To Policy Uncertainty

Nov 12, 2024 3 min read paid

The NFIB survey of small business owners was released today showing a record high in their uncertainty index during October (chart). That's not surprising since the polls showed that the presidential race was too close to call, raising the prospect of a contested election. The same happened prior to the previous two elections. The uncertainty index will undoubtedly fall when November's survey is released. However, it

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Between Iran & A Hard Place

Jan 28, 2024 3 min read paid

Geopolitical events and crises rarely influence Fed policymaking. This time it might be different. The war that began on October 7 between Israel and Hamas is turning into a regional conflict in the Middle East. On Sunday, Iran-backed militants killed three US service members and wounded many more during an unmanned aerial drone attack in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border. This latest escalation increases the risks of disruptions to

Ed Yardeni

Are Stock Valuations Rerating?

Oct 26, 2023 2 min read

The economic news today was very good. But the stock market sold off sharply for the second day in a row led by a 1.90% drop in the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 fell 1.19% today (chart). That's even though the bond market behaved with the 10-year Treasury yield falling from 4.985% at 8:25 am to 4.851% by the close. But

Ed Yardeni

Another Tech Wreck?

Oct 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The market chose to go down today on Google's disappointing Q3 earnings report rather than Microsoft's upside surprise on Tuesday after the close. Contributing to today's selloff was the rebound in the 10-year bond yield back up to 4.95%. Tech has been weighing on the market since mid-July as the yield rose by 100bps. The Nasdaq is down 10.7% since its 2023

Ed Yardeni

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Will Rate Cuts Continue Unless Inflation Behaves Badly?

From Election Uncertainty To Policy Uncertainty

Market Call: Between Iran & A Hard Place

Are Stock Valuations Rerating?

Another Tech Wreck?