Recession

'Obliteration Day' Was Postponed. Time To Buy Stocks?

Mar 24, 2026 4 min read paid

Stocks rallied on Monday because President Donald Trump postponed his 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if the country doesn't fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, he extended the deadline by five days, until Friday, while talks with Iran continue. Investors and traders recall that stocks soared on April 9, 2025, an hour before the stock market closed after Trump

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Oil Price Going Straight Up As Strait Of Hormuz Remains Closed

Mar 8, 2026 4 min read paid

This evening, the prices of a barrel of Brent and WTI crude oil are up about $15 to $107. The price of gold is falling because the dollar's foreign exchange value is rising. The 10-year bond yield is up to 4.195%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down by more than 1.7%. The Nikkei is down 4.5%. This chaos in the financial

Ed Yardeni

Investors May Be Gaining Confidence In the Resilience of the US Economy

Jul 24, 2025 2 min read paid

The four-week moving average of weekly initial unemployment claims provides a real-time indicator of the labor market (chart). It has been improving recently as the four-week average of jobless claims has been falling. Employers may be less concerned about the possible adverse impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy and on their companies. They should also be gaining confidence in the economy's resilience as validated by

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: In The Middle Of The Middle East

Jun 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Israel is in the middle of the Middle East. Iran's Mullahs have been threatening Israel's existence since they overthrew the Shah of Iran in February 1979. There has been a covert war between the two since then. It turned more overt last year and escalated on Friday when Israel launched a preemptive strike targeting nuclear facilities (Natanz, Khondab, Fordow), military installations, and residences of senior officials

Ed Yardeni

A Quiet Day For A Change

May 13, 2025 3 min read members

The Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn't up or down by 1,000 points today. The S&P 500's VIX was back down below 20 on Monday and again today (chart). The yield spread between corporate junk bonds and the 10-year Treasury bond has narrowed recently. The latter seems to be settling down around 4.50%, in the middle of our 2025 range of 4.25%

Ed Yardeni

Is The Economy On The Edge?

May 1, 2025 3 min read

The good news is that the Magnificent-7 are still magnificent. Three of them (Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft) beat earnings expectations for Q1. We've been arguing that while AI may or may not make money for the providers of Large Language Models, the result will be more demand for cloud computing. That should be good news for at least four of the Mag-7. The bad news is that recent

Ed Yardeni

Bond Vigilantes Hit Another Homerun

Apr 9, 2025 3 min read paid

"Bond investors are the economy's bond vigilantes. ... So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won’t regulate the economy, the bond investors will. The economy will be run by vigilantes in the credit markets.” – Ed Yardeni, 1983 "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 EPS At Record High During Q2

Aug 12, 2024 3 min read paid

Now that the S&P 500 companies are more than 90% through the Q2 earnings reporting season, let's do a quick check up on how Corporate America is faring. In short, there's no sign of an imminent recession as S&P 500 earnings rose to a record high during Q2. Here's more happy news to serve as a tonic to the geopolitical

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Pushing Back Against the Diehard Hard-Landers

Aug 4, 2024 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Is The Fed Put Back?

Jun 4, 2024 3 min read paid

The financial markets seem to believe that the Fed Put is back. The recent batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators raised the number of expected 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) from 2 to 3 over the next 12 months (chart). That's according to the basis-point spread between the 12-month FFR futures and the actual FFR divided by 25bps. Investors must be confident that inflation is getting

Ed Yardeni

Time To Get Some Worry Beads?

Aug 1, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's batch of economic indicators was relatively upbeat. June's JOLTS report showed that jobs remained plentiful. July's M-PMI suggests that the rolling recession experienced by goods producers and distributors may be bottoming. June's construction spending rose to yet another record high (chart). The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model estimates that real GDP rose a whopping 3.9% during Q3. That

Ed Yardeni

The Urge To Merge

Jul 26, 2023 2 min read paid

When the banking crisis occurred during March, we concluded that the Fed's emergency liquidity response would contain the problem. We predicted that investors soon would be scrambling to determine which regional banks might be acquired rather than worrying about which of them might be seized by banking regulators. We argued that the higher costs of regulation that would soon be imposed on the smaller banks would force the

Ed Yardeni

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