Recession

Plenty of Sunshine In Q3's GDPNow & July's CPI

Aug 10, 2022 1 min read paid

There's lots of sunshine in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model. Today's estimate shows that real GDP is rising at a 2.5% pace (saar) during Q3 (table). Consumer spending is tracking at 2.7%. It is looking like an up quarter for capital spending, government outlays, and exports so far. The downers, so far, are residential investment, imports, and the change in private

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Truck Tonnage & Employment

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

The trucking industry didn't get the recession memo yet. The ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.7% in June after rising 0.3% in May. In June, the index equaled 120.1, rebounding almost back to its pre-pandemic record high. Trucking is a good coincident indicator of the economy, representing 72.5% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and

Ed Yardeni

It's A Banana!

Jul 28, 2022 1 min read

Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "growth recession" in our opinion. It is widely believed that two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP is an outright recession. However, it won't be an official recession until the Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. They might not do so since

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Today's GDP Indicators

Jul 27, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Germany's Economic Outlook Taking A Dive

Jul 25, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

A Growth Recession?

Jul 15, 2022 2 min read paid

Following today's retail sales and industrial production reports, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised real GDP growth down to -1.5% (saar) during Q2 from -1.2%. Real consumption spending was lowered from 1.9% to 1.5%, while gross private investment now shows a decline of -13.8% instead of -13.7%. Consider the following: (1) Retail sales. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales has

Ed Yardeni

Jamie's Hurricane

Jul 14, 2022 1 min read

The stock market is down this morning on worse-than-expected PPI inflation news, heightening fears of more aggressive Fed tightening and a recession. The yield curve spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries is solidly inverted at -24bps. In addition, JP Morgan Chase reported that Q2 profits slumped as the bank built reserves for bad loans by $428 million and "temporarily" suspended share buybacks. The bank's CEO

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Readings in June’s M-PMI Report

Jul 1, 2022 2 min read

June’s national M-PMI was reported this morning, and it wasn’t as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by 5 of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. However, the new orders component of the national index was almost as weak as suggested by the comparable regional average index (charts below). Here are some quick takeaways from the national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers: (1) June’s

Ed Yardeni

It's (Unofficially) a Recession!

Jun 30, 2022 2 min read

The economy continues to teeter on the edge of a recession. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows Q2's real GDP growth at -1.0% (saar). It was revised down from 0.3% following this morning's release of May's personal income and consumption data. The model shows real consumer spending up 1.7%, a downward revision from 2.7%. In addition, real

Ed Yardeni

European Consumers Are Very Depressed

Jun 29, 2022 1 min read paid

On June 23, Bloomberg reported: “Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has built a $10.5 billion bet against European companies, almost doubling its wager in the past week to its most bearish stance against the region’s stocks in two years.” It seems like a good strategy to short Europe over the near term, especially if tensions between Russia and Europe escalate.

Ed Yardeni

Supply-Chain Disruptions Easing. More Supply or Less Demand?

Jun 28, 2022 1 min read

June's surveys of five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks strongly suggest that supply-chain disruptions have eased significantly in recent months. However, that has yet to relieve inflationary pressures according to the surveys. The question is whether the drops in regional indexes tracking unfilled orders and delivery times during the first half of this year reflect more ample supplies or diminishing demand. Presumably, if demand is taking

Ed Yardeni

June's Regional Business Surveys Were Recessionary

Jun 28, 2022 2 min read paid

It's hard to come up with anything positive to say about June's batch of regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. That's because they were mostly in negative territory (chart below). They certainly add to the credibility of the recession-is-here scenario. However, the regional surveys tend to focus on manufacturing rather than services. Indeed, the averages of the

Ed Yardeni

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