Retail Sales

US Economy Is Hot, Hot, Hot

Oct 17, 2024 3 min read

Today, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model raised Q3's real GDP growth rate from 3.2% to 3.4% (saar) following a roaring September retail sales report (chart). Real consumer spending was revised up from 3.3% to 3.6%! Jobless claims fell despite worker strikes and hurricanes. Manufacturing also held up well notwithstanding Boeing layoffs and bad weather. Today's data further confirm our

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 14-18

Oct 13, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will likely confirm that consumer spending continues to shine, while manufacturing production remains lackluster. Meanwhile, as earnings season kicks off with the S&P 500 at a record high and valuations relatively stretched, the onus will be on company managements to deliver better-than-expected earnings, which should be relatively easy since expectations are low. As earnings surprises turned increasingly negative during the summer, so too did

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Fed Playing With An Economy On Fire?

Sep 17, 2024 2 min read paid

Today, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model raised Q3's real GDP growth rate to 3.0% (saar) from 2.5% following the release of solid retail sales and industrial production reports for August (chart). Leading the way was an upward revision in real consumer spending growth to a whopping 3.7% from 3.5%. The increase in real spending on capital equipment was raised to 11.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Fed Easing Monetary Policy Into An Economic Boom?

Sep 16, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: September 16-20

Sep 15, 2024 3 min read paid

The main event this week is the FOMC meeting (Wed). The Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate (FFR), but with a heated debate over whether it will be 25bps or 50bps. Perhaps more important than the size of the first cut will be the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which will provide Fed officials' updated forecasts for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Consumers Are Still Shopping, Not Dropping

Aug 15, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's data tsunami showed that the labor market remains in good shape and is fueling consumer spending. The latest data support our view that betting against consumers when jobs are expanding is a bad bet. In addition, cautious guidance by several consumer-related companies during the latest earnings reporting season might have been too cautious. Today on a call with analysts, Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon said,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: August 12-16

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with economic reports. In addition, more Fed talking heads are likely to opine on last week's financial markets volatility and the monetary policy outlook. As market prognosticators debate the speed and size of coming interest rate cuts, the most important indicators are likely to be those closely tied to the Fed's dual mandate. Here's what we're watching

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: July 15-19

Jul 14, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will include updates on industrial production and business sales of goods, as well as retail sales. The upshot is likely to be another all-time high for June's Index of Coincident Indicators (Thu), as confirmed by S&P 500 forward earnings per share which climbed to another new record high during June (chart). When profits grow, the economy grows. During the current earnings reporting

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Consumers Consuming, Producers Producing & Treasury Borrowing

Jun 18, 2024 2 min read paid

May's retail sales, including food services, rose just 0.1% m/m, weaker than expected (chart). That's in current dollars. Adjusted for inflation, they were not as weak. CPI goods fell 0.1% m/m during May. So real retail sales, less food services, rose 0.3%. Much of the recent weakness in retail sales has been in housing-related merchandise since housing sales remain weak. Real

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: June 17-21

Jun 16, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will include lots of economic indicators, which on balance should show that the pace of economic activity improved during May. June's regional business surveys for the New York and Philly Fed districts will also be released. The BIG number should be initial unemployment claims. Here's our take: (1) Unemployment claims. Jobless claims (Thu) jumped over the past three weeks through the week

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Housing Still In Rolling Recession

May 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Inflation's Puzzle Pieces Painting Bullish Picture

May 15, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high of 5308.15 following today's economic numbers. It could easily reach our yearend target of 5400 well ahead of schedule! For now, we are sticking with this target, as well as 6000 for 2025 and 6500 for 2026. That's consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario (60% subjective probability). If the market continues its near-vertical ascent,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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