Retail Sales

Consumers Are Still Shopping, Not Dropping

Aug 15, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's data tsunami showed that the labor market remains in good shape and is fueling consumer spending. The latest data support our view that betting against consumers when jobs are expanding is a bad bet. In addition, cautious guidance by several consumer-related companies during the latest earnings reporting season might have been too cautious. Today on a call with analysts, Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon said,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 12-16

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with economic reports. In addition, more Fed talking heads are likely to opine on last week's financial markets volatility and the monetary policy outlook. As market prognosticators debate the speed and size of coming interest rate cuts, the most important indicators are likely to be those closely tied to the Fed's dual mandate. Here's what we're watching

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 15-19

Jul 14, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will include updates on industrial production and business sales of goods, as well as retail sales. The upshot is likely to be another all-time high for June's Index of Coincident Indicators (Thu), as confirmed by S&P 500 forward earnings per share which climbed to another new record high during June (chart). When profits grow, the economy grows. During the current earnings reporting

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Consuming, Producers Producing & Treasury Borrowing

Jun 18, 2024 2 min read paid

May's retail sales, including food services, rose just 0.1% m/m, weaker than expected (chart). That's in current dollars. Adjusted for inflation, they were not as weak. CPI goods fell 0.1% m/m during May. So real retail sales, less food services, rose 0.3%. Much of the recent weakness in retail sales has been in housing-related merchandise since housing sales remain weak. Real

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 17-21

Jun 16, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will include lots of economic indicators, which on balance should show that the pace of economic activity improved during May. June's regional business surveys for the New York and Philly Fed districts will also be released. The BIG number should be initial unemployment claims. Here's our take: (1) Unemployment claims. Jobless claims (Thu) jumped over the past three weeks through the week

Ed Yardeni

Housing Still In Rolling Recession

May 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Inflation's Puzzle Pieces Painting Bullish Picture

May 15, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to a new record high of 5308.15 following today's economic numbers. It could easily reach our yearend target of 5400 well ahead of schedule! For now, we are sticking with this target, as well as 6000 for 2025 and 6500 for 2026. That's consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario (60% subjective probability). If the market continues its near-vertical ascent,

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: May 13 - 17

May 12, 2024 3 min read

The week ahead is jampacked with economic indicator releases. The big ones are for inflation, retail sales, and production. They may be somewhat stagflationary on balance, showing inflation remains too high while economic growth is slowing. Nevertheless, we still expect to see inflation moderate with solid economic growth over the rest of this year. Here are a few observations on this week's key indicators: (1) CPI. The Cleveland

Ed Yardeni

No Landing

Apr 15, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Pause That Refreshes Spooks Investors

Mar 14, 2024 2 min read paid

The vertical momentum rally that started on October 27, 2023 seems to be losing some of its momentum. Maybe. That's OK with us. We would rather see our 5400 S&P 500 target achieved by yearend, then by mid-year. But as the Rolling Stones observed, "You can't always get what you want." Slowing the pace of the advance this week have been hotter

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 11-15

Mar 9, 2024 2 min read paid

The coming week starts with a couple of key inflation indicators. Both were probably boosted by rising gasoline prices. The retail pump price is up 9.1% since the last week of January. This bounce might have boosted February's reading on the year-ahead expected inflation rate in the FRBNY consumer expectations survey (Mon). It did so, though only slightly, in a similar series from February's SCR

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 12-16

Feb 11, 2024 2 min read

Powell & Co. would like to see more evidence that inflation is falling toward their 2.0% target. They should get more of it this week. January's headline and core CPI inflation rates (Tue) should be 0.2% and 0.3% m/m, and 3.0% and 3.8% y/y, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model. We will be focusing on these inflation

Ed Yardeni

Page 3 of 4