Retail Sales

The Pause That Refreshes Spooks Investors

Mar 14, 2024 2 min read paid

The vertical momentum rally that started on October 27, 2023 seems to be losing some of its momentum. Maybe. That's OK with us. We would rather see our 5400 S&P 500 target achieved by yearend, then by mid-year. But as the Rolling Stones observed, "You can't always get what you want." Slowing the pace of the advance this week have been hotter

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 11-15

Mar 9, 2024 2 min read paid

The coming week starts with a couple of key inflation indicators. Both were probably boosted by rising gasoline prices. The retail pump price is up 9.1% since the last week of January. This bounce might have boosted February's reading on the year-ahead expected inflation rate in the FRBNY consumer expectations survey (Mon). It did so, though only slightly, in a similar series from February's SCR

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 12-16

Feb 11, 2024 2 min read

Powell & Co. would like to see more evidence that inflation is falling toward their 2.0% target. They should get more of it this week. January's headline and core CPI inflation rates (Tue) should be 0.2% and 0.3% m/m, and 3.0% and 3.8% y/y, according to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model. We will be focusing on these inflation

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 16-19

Jan 15, 2024 2 min read paid

Last week had plenty of indicators that allowed us to assess the latest readings on US inflation: It is continuing to moderate. This week has plenty of reports that will allow us to assess the strength of the economy: They are likely to show some mixed readings for the goods sector. Most important will be December's retail sales (Wed). We know that aggregate hours worked fell 0.2%

Ed Yardeni

A Whiff Of Deflation

Nov 16, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 13 - 17

Nov 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The third week of the month tends to be action packed with key economic indicators. This week's batch should confirm that inflation remains on a moderating trend and that the economy continues to grow albeit at a slower pace than during Q3. Unfortunately, on Monday, we will be reminded that this Goldilocks scenario has at least one big flaw, i.e., the widening federal deficit. In addition, we

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: October 16-20

Oct 15, 2023 2 min read paid

The big banks kicked off the Q3 earnings season this past Friday. Their results beat expectations. That's consistent with our view that S&P 500 operating earnings per share rose to a record high during Q3. So we have nothing to fear other than higher interest rates, a consumer-led recession, persistent inflation, and more horror in Ukraine and now the Middle East too. The week's

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market's Meltup Continues

Jun 15, 2023 2 min read

Investors had a quick look at today's economic indicators and concluded that the economy is still growing albeit slowly while inflation is continuing to moderate. The FOMC's next meeting is at the end of July. By then, the committee might conclude that the federal funds rate, currently still at 5.00%-5.25%, might be restrictive enough to get the inflation rate close to 2.0%

Ed Yardeni

US Consumers Depress Stock Investors

Jan 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell on renewed worries about a consumer-led recession following the release this morning of December's retail sales and industrial production. Both declined last month. Yesterday, the NY Fed's regional business survey for January was also very weak. (We will review it tomorrow along with the Philly Fed's latest regional business survey.) Let's have a closer look

Ed Yardeni

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