Sentiment

MARKET CALL: Meltup Again? (Do We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear?)

Jun 8, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has become tariff-scare-proof now that the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its February 19 record high despite Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) since then. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, the stock market has also become recession-scare-proof. According to Polymarkets, the odds of a recession were back down to 27% on Friday from a recent peak of 66% on May 1

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Let's Make A Deal

May 11, 2025 3 min read paid

Dealmaking is in the air. American and Chinese delegations met this past weekend to discuss how they might deescalate their trade war. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine on May 15 in the Turkish city of Istanbul that he said should be aimed at bringing a durable peace and eliminating the root causes of the war. A fragile ceasefire was holding between India and Pakistan

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bears

Apr 20, 2025 4 min read paid

We don't recall this ever happening before. During the past three weeks, The Economist has featured three very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the global economy (chart). Contrarians of the world, unite! As extreme bearishness pervades world markets, the old maxim “It’s always darkest before the

Ed Yardeni

Was That The Bottom?

Mar 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq might have bottomed on Thursday, but we doubt it for reasons we get into below. Both indexes rallied nicely on Friday and today. That action jibes with the extremely bearish sentiment readings of the bull/bear ratios compiled by Investors Intelligence and AAII. Last week, the former was down to 0.80, the lowest since the 2022 bear market, and the latter

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

A Bond Vigilante In Trump's Court

Feb 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump 2.0 is borrowing a page from the Clinton administration's playbook, specifically the one in which Robert Rubin and James Carville warned Clinton that he had to respect the power of the Bond Vigilantes and maintain fiscal discipline. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said that he and President Trump are less concerned with the federal funds rate (FFR) and instead are hoping to contain the 10-year

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Sentiment Remains Remarkably Bearish, Which Is Bullish

Jan 22, 2025 2 min read

Stock price indexes are back at record highs. Yet the stock market's sentiment indicators have turned stubbornly bearish over the past couple of weeks. We noted this development a week ago and concluded that it might be a bullish signal from a contrarian perspective. We aren't sure why there are more bears and fewer bulls recently. Last week, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell from 4.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 9-13

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of inflation updates. We're expecting stickier inflation readings that should ruffle the feathers of the Fed's doves. The FOMC is in a blackout period ahead of its December 17-18 meeting, meaning FOMC members won't be able to comment publicly. If the CPI news changes their minds about cutting the federal funds rate (FFR), they'll have to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Animal Spirits Are Back & Boosting the Roaring 2020s! Fueling A Meltup Too?

Nov 10, 2024 3 min read paid

Just after Donald Trump won the presidential race on November 8, 2016, we observed that the economy and stock market were charged up with "animal spirits," a term coined by John Maynard Keynes meaning spontaneous optimism. Animal spirits are back now that Trump won a second term on November 5 and in a clean sweep if the Republicans win the House, which seems likely. The stock market jumped

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Front Cover Curse

Oct 22, 2024 1 min read

We've been recommending overweighting the US in global equity portfolios since 2010. We still are, and it is still working (chart). We started writing about the Roaring 2020s in the US in 2020. For example, on August 11, 2020, we wrote: "We live in interesting, though not unprecedented, times. The Roaring 1920s could be a precedent for the Roaring 2020s. As Mark Twain observed: 'History doesn’

Ed Yardeni

Market Technicals: Is Sentiment Bearish Enough To Signal A Market Bottom?

Sep 8, 2024 2 min read

We asked Joe Feshbach for an update of his take on the stock market from a trading perspective: "Even with the recent decline in the stock market, I’m still recommending a cautious/defensive approach to stocks. My two biggest concerns have been the optimistic levels that the sentiment indicators have reached and the parabolic moves in technology charts followed by their significant recent declines. We’ve had a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear, Again.

May 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Nothing to worry about? The geopolitical risk premium in the price of oil has dropped sharply since early April. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil slipped to $82.96 from a recent peak of $91.17 on Friday, April 5 (chart). Stock market sentiment indicators have turned less bullish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective. Last week's economic indicators were on the weak side.

Ed Yardeni

Tanks A Lot

Apr 17, 2024 2 min read paid

The war premium in the crude oil market fell again today. Fears of a significant disruption to global oil production continued to dissipate this week. That's even though Israel has threatened to attack Iran in response to the aerial attack launched by Iran against Israel on Saturday. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil peaked recently at $91.17 0n April 5 (chart). It was down

Ed Yardeni

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