Sentiment

Market Call

Mar 26, 2023 2 min read

Bond investors are having fun again. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield peaked last year at 4.25% on October 24. It was down to 3.38% on Friday. Most of this decline occurred since the start of the current banking crisis on March 9 (chart). Bond investors have been waiting for something to break in the financial system since last summer when the yield curve inverted. They are betting

Ed Yardeni

Listening To The Markets

Feb 18, 2023 2 min read paid

On a regular basis, we all need to listen to the markets. They process a tremendous amount of information. They reflect the opinions of lots of buyers and sellers. Their price action can tell us a great deal about the economy, financial conditions, and sentiment. Joe Feshbach helps us to do just that based on his 40+ years trading the financial markets. He had expected that the S&P

Ed Yardeni

Copper, Mortgages, GDP, Breadth & Sentiment

Jan 11, 2023 2 min read

Yesterday, the World Bank slashed its 2023 global economic growth rate outlook to 1.7% from its earlier projection of 3.0%. In its Global Economic Prospects, the bank warned that the global economy is "perilously close to falling into recession." Dr. Copper, the metal with a PhD in economics, begs to differ. The nearby futures price of the basic metal is up to $4.17 currently from

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Sentiment Readings Mostly Bearish

Nov 10, 2022 2 min read paid

The Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio remained below 1.00 this week for the eighth consecutive week, holding at 0.96 for a third week, after falling steadily from 1.15 in mid-September to 0.57 four weeks ago—which was the lowest since March 2009 (chart). Bullish sentiment dipped for the second week to 35.2% after increasing the prior two weeks from 25.0% (the fewest bulls since

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Float As 2-Year Yield & Dollar Sink

Oct 26, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 bottomed this morning around 10 a.m. about 1% below yesterday's close on earnings misses by Alphabet and Microsoft. But it quickly popped back up to the surface, so it now is floating slightly above yesterday's close as of 11 a.m. The trading day isn't over, but there is an interesting dynamic playing out in the markets: (1)

Ed Yardeni

Bull-Bear Ratio Still Under 1.00

Oct 19, 2022 1 min read paid

The Bull-Bear Ratio was below 1.00 for the fifth successive week this week, edging up to 0.78 after falling steadily from 1.15 in mid-September to 0.57 last week—which was the lowest since March 2009. Bullish sentiment increased for the first time in five weeks, to 31.3%, after falling the prior four weeks from 32.4% to 25.0%—which was the fewest bulls since

Ed Yardeni

BBR Down to 0.57

Oct 12, 2022 1 min read

So far, widespread bearishness hasn't worked as a contrary bullish signal. Readings below 1.0 in the Bull-Bear Ratio (BBR) have often marked the bottoms of corrections (charts below). But during bear markets, such readings can persist. In the current bear market, contrarians have been up against the old adage: "Don't fight the Fed." The BBR sank further below 1.00 this week, dropping

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Back Down to 0.61

Oct 5, 2022 1 min read paid

(1) The BBR dropped for the third week in a row to 0.61--the lowest since the June 21 week’s 0.60 (chart below). (2) Bullish sentiment held steady at 25.4% this week (the fewest bulls since early 2016) after falling the prior two weeks from 32.4%.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Back Above 3666, BBR Under 1.00

Sep 28, 2022 1 min read paid

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell below the June 16 low of 3666 to 3647. Today, it bounced back above that devilish number to 3719. The good news was that a major central bank was forced to pivot by the Bond Vigilantes. On Monday and Tuesday, the foreign exchange value of the British pound and bond prices crashed, sending US bond yields soaring and stocks falling. Today, the

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: BBR Back Under 1.00

Sep 21, 2022 1 min read paid

Given the recent action in the stock market, it's not surprising to see that the Bull/Bear Ratio compiled by our friends at Investors Intelligence dropped to 0.96 during the September 20 week from 1.15 the previous week (chart below). In the past, readings of 1.00 or less have proven to be contrarian signals of good times to buy for long-term investors.

Ed Yardeni

BBR Edges Up To 1.15

Sep 14, 2022 1 min read paid

We are predicting that the S&P 500 will remain range-bound for a while between the June 16 low of 3666 and the August 16 high of 4300. The index closed at 3946 today, around the middle of the range. Sentiment remains very bearish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective: (1) The Bull-Bear Ratio climbed to 1.15 this week after falling the prior three weeks from 1.

Ed Yardeni

Reversal Days Signal Sideways Stock Market

Sep 8, 2022 1 min read paid

Stock investors don't know whether they are coming or going. They don't have much conviction. Yesterday, we observed that there are more market letters calling for a correction than either a big move up or down in the stock market. Reversal days seem to be occurring more frequently recently. Some days the market starts by moving down only to finish up. The next day, it goes

Ed Yardeni

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