Stock Market

MARKET CALL: Get A Neck Brace

Dec 21, 2024 3 min read paid

Wednesday was a bad day for stocks after the release of the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which showed two cuts in the federal funds rate in 2025 rather than the four cuts shown in September's SEP. Friday was a better day for stocks after two Fed officials suggested that November's PCED inflation report provided justification for rate cutting in 2025. * Goolsbee. "

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Game of Drones

Dec 15, 2024 3 min read

Look up in the sky. It's a bird. It's a plane. It's Superman! Nope, it's lots of drones flying over New Jersey, New York, and Maryland typically between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m. They are reportedly the size of an SUV, so they aren't likely to be owned by hobbyists. Some folks are getting panicky about all these

Ed Yardeni

Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bulls

Dec 5, 2024 3 min read

We were very bullish at the start of this year with a Street-high year-end price target of 5400 for the S&P 500. That level was surpassed on June 12. We weren't bullish enough as the stampeding bulls left hoof marks on our backs. So we raised our target to 5800 on July 10, which was surpassed on November 6 (chart). So we raised our target to

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: The Trump/Musk/Vivek/Santa Rally

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

For better or worse, Trump's New World Order will certainly be different from Biden's Old World Order. Moreover, the globalists of the World Economic Forum, headed by Klaus Schwab (and Greta Thunberg), are about to be seriously challenged by Trump's anti-globalists. Klaus has been calling for the "Great Reset" including a "stakeholder economy," replacing fossil fuels with solar and wind

Ed Yardeni

In Bessent We Trust

Nov 25, 2024 3 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes like Scott Bessent, who was nominated to be US Treasury Secretary by Donald Trump yesterday. Their vote of confidence was reflected in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which fell to 4.28% from 4.42% at the end of last week. We like him too. We are looking forward to having him in the Trump administration working hard to make our Roaring 2020s scenario great. Earlier

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Bitcoin Going To The Moon, To Mars, To Infinity & Beyond!

Nov 25, 2024 3 min read

We are increasingly asked about the outlook for Bitcoin. We don't have a clue because it doesn't provide investors with any way to value it. We know that the supply of the cryptocurrency is limited, which is why the supply of alternative cryptocurrencies seems to be expanding as fast as the price of Bitcoin is soaring. However, the increased supply of alternatives doesn't seem

Ed Yardeni

Lost Decade Ahead For Stocks With Only 3% Annual Returns?

Oct 22, 2024 3 min read

We've been asked to comment on yesterday's grim forecast by economists at Goldman Sachs that the S&P 500 will produce annualized returns of only 3% (before accounting for inflation) over the next 10 years. They reckon that the range of possible outcomes includes -1% at the low end and +7% nominal returns at the high end. In our opinion, even Goldman's optimistic

Ed Yardeni

Anatomy of a Meltup

Oct 20, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Break Out The Bubbly: Lots Of New Record Highs

Oct 9, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at records today. Leading the charge were technology stocks. Bank stocks also performed well. At the beginning of September, we wrote: "We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher." We wrote the same at the start of October.

Ed Yardeni

The Oscar For The Best Leading Economic Indicator

Oct 7, 2024 3 min read paid

There have been numerous misleading economic indicators signaling a recession since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in early 2022. Among the worst have been the inverting yield curve and then the disinverting yield curve. And, of course, there's the falling Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which is long overdue for a product recall. On the other hand, S&P 500 operating forward earnings has been

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Back To Higher For Longer?

Oct 6, 2024 2 min read

Remember the "higher for longer" mantra about the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) during the spring? It turned into "lower and sooner" this summer in response to the economy's soft patch. After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to "no rush to ease further" during the fall. We can't rule out "higher for

Ed Yardeni

In 10 Charts: History & Future of DJIA and S&P 500

Oct 3, 2024 3 min read paid

(1) The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on course to hit 60,000 by the end of the decade. (2) The S&P 500 may be on course to rise above 8000 by the end of the decade. (3) The S&P 500 stock price index is driven by its earnings per share (EPS), which has been growing mostly between 6% and 7% since the 1950s. EPS could

Ed Yardeni

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