Stock Market

The Oscar For The Best Leading Economic Indicator

Oct 7, 2024 3 min read paid

There have been numerous misleading economic indicators signaling a recession since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in early 2022. Among the worst have been the inverting yield curve and then the disinverting yield curve. And, of course, there's the falling Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which is long overdue for a product recall. On the other hand, S&P 500 operating forward earnings has been

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Back To Higher For Longer?

Oct 6, 2024 2 min read

Remember the "higher for longer" mantra about the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) during the spring? It turned into "lower and sooner" this summer in response to the economy's soft patch. After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to "no rush to ease further" during the fall. We can't rule out "higher for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

In 10 Charts: History & Future of DJIA and S&P 500

Oct 3, 2024 3 min read paid

(1) The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on course to hit 60,000 by the end of the decade. (2) The S&P 500 may be on course to rise above 8000 by the end of the decade. (3) The S&P 500 stock price index is driven by its earnings per share (EPS), which has been growing mostly between 6% and 7% since the 1950s. EPS could

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Raising Odds Of A Meltup

Sep 19, 2024 4 min read paid

We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market meltup, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks causing oil prices and inflation to spike. We haven't had to change our subjective probabilities of 60/20/20 for these three alternative outlooks. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is forcing us

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: The Worst & The Best Of Times

Sep 15, 2024 2 min read

A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens famously begins, ''It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.'' Two weeks ago was the worst week for the stock market so far this year. Last week was the best week for the stock market so far this year. In the July 28 Quicktakes, we wrote: "Our hunch is that the stock market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

No News Is Good News

Sep 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Dr. Ed was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning at 7 a.m (see link below). Ace journalist Lisa Abramowitcz noted that during the summer, we were saying that the economy is resilient and doesn't need much monetary stimulus, which might cause a meltup in stock prices. Now we are saying that if the Fed cuts the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps instead of 25bps on September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Looking For Black Swans In September

Sep 3, 2024 3 min read paid

September has just started, and it is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stock prices which tumbled today during the first trading day of the month. So did commodity prices, led downward by oil and copper. The stock market selloff started when it opened and before August's weak M-PMI report was released at 10:00 a.m. EST, which

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Did Powell Just Pour Gasoline On Stock Market's Fire?

Aug 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was unambiguously dovish, as we observed in that day's QT. It was also unambiguously bullish for the stock market because it confirmed widespread expectations that September's cut in the federal funds rate is in the bag and will be followed by several more cuts. However, the stock market may have discounted most of these

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: More Churning?

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been expecting the stock market to churn for a while. We didn't expect it would churn so much in just one week as it did last week. So now what? Our bet is probably more churning is ahead with lots of volatility through the presidential election.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Pushing Back Against the Diehard Hard-Landers

Aug 4, 2024 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Rotating Market Betting On Pivoting Powell

Jul 30, 2024 3 min read paid

This is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say at his presser tomorrow: "The economy has been stronger than we expected and the labor market remains solid. Inflation is getting closer to our 2.0% target, but it isn't there yet. We didn't cut the federal funds rate at this meeting of the FOMC, but we might do so at the September 17-18

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Burning Or Churning?

Jul 28, 2024 3 min read

Geopolitical risk increased on Saturday after a rocket strike from Lebanon killed 12 people in Israel's Golan Heights. Israel retaliated with a strike on Hezbollah weapons caches and infrastructure on Sunday. This is all stoking fear of a wider war in the Middle East. So far, the region's turmoil since October 7, 2023 (when Hamas terrorists attacked and massacred Israelis) hasn't weighed on the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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