Stock Market

Raising Odds Of A Meltup

Sep 19, 2024 4 min read paid

We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market meltup, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks causing oil prices and inflation to spike. We haven't had to change our subjective probabilities of 60/20/20 for these three alternative outlooks. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is forcing us

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Worst & The Best Of Times

Sep 15, 2024 2 min read

A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens famously begins, ''It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.'' Two weeks ago was the worst week for the stock market so far this year. Last week was the best week for the stock market so far this year. In the July 28 Quicktakes, we wrote: "Our hunch is that the stock market

Ed Yardeni

No News Is Good News

Sep 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Dr. Ed was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning at 7 a.m (see link below). Ace journalist Lisa Abramowitcz noted that during the summer, we were saying that the economy is resilient and doesn't need much monetary stimulus, which might cause a meltup in stock prices. Now we are saying that if the Fed cuts the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps instead of 25bps on September

Ed Yardeni

Looking For Black Swans In September

Sep 3, 2024 3 min read paid

September has just started, and it is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stock prices which tumbled today during the first trading day of the month. So did commodity prices, led downward by oil and copper. The stock market selloff started when it opened and before August's weak M-PMI report was released at 10:00 a.m. EST, which

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Did Powell Just Pour Gasoline On Stock Market's Fire?

Aug 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was unambiguously dovish, as we observed in that day's QT. It was also unambiguously bullish for the stock market because it confirmed widespread expectations that September's cut in the federal funds rate is in the bag and will be followed by several more cuts. However, the stock market may have discounted most of these

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: More Churning?

Aug 11, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been expecting the stock market to churn for a while. We didn't expect it would churn so much in just one week as it did last week. So now what? Our bet is probably more churning is ahead with lots of volatility through the presidential election.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Pushing Back Against the Diehard Hard-Landers

Aug 4, 2024 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Rotating Market Betting On Pivoting Powell

Jul 30, 2024 3 min read paid

This is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to say at his presser tomorrow: "The economy has been stronger than we expected and the labor market remains solid. Inflation is getting closer to our 2.0% target, but it isn't there yet. We didn't cut the federal funds rate at this meeting of the FOMC, but we might do so at the September 17-18

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Burning Or Churning?

Jul 28, 2024 3 min read

Geopolitical risk increased on Saturday after a rocket strike from Lebanon killed 12 people in Israel's Golan Heights. Israel retaliated with a strike on Hezbollah weapons caches and infrastructure on Sunday. This is all stoking fear of a wider war in the Middle East. So far, the region's turmoil since October 7, 2023 (when Hamas terrorists attacked and massacred Israelis) hasn't weighed on the

Ed Yardeni

Valuation-Led Selloff Led by Magnificent-7

Jul 24, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's stock market rout was led by the Magnificent-7. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) was down 6.1% today, and down 8.3% since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high during July 16 (chart). The S&P 500 is down 4.2% since then to 5427.13, just below its 50-day moving average (chart).

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Ups & Downs of the Stock Market Cycle

Jul 21, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down 2.9% from its record high of 5667.20 on Tuesday, July 16. The following day semiconductor stocks got whacked on news that the Biden administration is considering draconian measures to clamp down on foreign companies which manufacture chipmaking machinery from selling their products in China (chart). Of course, the pain spread quickly to the Magnificent-7 including Nvidia, which should find support north

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Earnings Reporting Season Likely To Broaden The Stock Market Rally

Jul 14, 2024 3 min read paid

We've previously written that our number one concern for the stock market is unsettling domestic and global political turmoil. The attempt to assassinate former President Donald Trump on Saturday heightened anxiety about political violence at home as the November elections approach. On the global stage, the violence of the wars between Ukraine and Russia and in the Middle East seems to be escalating. Then again, the stock market

Ed Yardeni

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