Stock Market

Market Call: Burning Or Churning?

Jul 28, 2024 3 min read

Geopolitical risk increased on Saturday after a rocket strike from Lebanon killed 12 people in Israel's Golan Heights. Israel retaliated with a strike on Hezbollah weapons caches and infrastructure on Sunday. This is all stoking fear of a wider war in the Middle East. So far, the region's turmoil since October 7, 2023 (when Hamas terrorists attacked and massacred Israelis) hasn't weighed on the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Valuation-Led Selloff Led by Magnificent-7

Jul 24, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's stock market rout was led by the Magnificent-7. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) was down 6.1% today, and down 8.3% since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high during July 16 (chart). The S&P 500 is down 4.2% since then to 5427.13, just below its 50-day moving average (chart).

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Ups & Downs of the Stock Market Cycle

Jul 21, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down 2.9% from its record high of 5667.20 on Tuesday, July 16. The following day semiconductor stocks got whacked on news that the Biden administration is considering draconian measures to clamp down on foreign companies which manufacture chipmaking machinery from selling their products in China (chart). Of course, the pain spread quickly to the Magnificent-7 including Nvidia, which should find support north

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Earnings Reporting Season Likely To Broaden The Stock Market Rally

Jul 14, 2024 3 min read paid

We've previously written that our number one concern for the stock market is unsettling domestic and global political turmoil. The attempt to assassinate former President Donald Trump on Saturday heightened anxiety about political violence at home as the November elections approach. On the global stage, the violence of the wars between Ukraine and Russia and in the Middle East seems to be escalating. Then again, the stock market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Meltup!

Jul 10, 2024 3 min read paid

We are raising our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400. We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade. The stock market seems to be discounting our Roaring 2020s scenario faster than we expected. We've been among the most bullish investment strategists since November 2022, but not bullish enough. The bull market might continue to achieve our targets ahead of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: The Bull Market's Alleged Vulnerabilities

Jul 7, 2024 2 min read

The stock market's bull run since October 12, 2022 has raised some concerns lately. According to the naysayers, earnings growth expectations may be too high because there are mounting signs of an economic slowdown that might lead to an economic recession. The breadth of the stock market rally continues to narrow, which may be confirming that the underlying fundamental support for the bull market is narrowing. If the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Is The Stock Market Hazardous?

Jun 30, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock market rose to another record high last week. It has been doing so in recent weeks led by fewer sectors and fewer stocks. The S&P 500 market-cap-weighted stock price index has significantly outperformed the equal-weighted index in recent weeks (chart). Many technicians warn that this could be a bearish sign in the short-run if the leaders experience a correction. An alternative scenario we favor is that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Technology Now & Then

Jun 24, 2024 3 min read paid

Are stock market valuations too high? There is no obvious answer to the valuation question. So we are dependent on history for some guidance. We don’t have to go very far back in time to find a meltup that looks similar to the current one. The obvious analogy is to that of the late 1990s: (1) Valuation multiples, now & then. The S&P 500 peaked at a

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Meltup: Earnings-Led Or Valuation-Led?

Jun 19, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Momentum Meltup, Blowoff Top, Or Both?

Jun 16, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer price disinflation is raising expectations for a Fed rate cut, which is fueling a meltup in stock prices. This morning on CBS' "Face the Nation," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that a rate cut by year-end is a “reasonable prediction.” On Friday, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 4.25% to 4.20%. The technical picture is signaling that it might continue to fall

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Low Inflation Readings Stampede the Bulls

Jun 13, 2024 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) warned markets to expect no more than one interest rate cut over the rest of this year. But the bulls are charging ahead anyway on May's lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation data yesterday and today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 25bps since Monday's high to 4.24% (chart). The Nasdaq hit another record high

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Inflation Moderates & Stocks Soar As Fed Aims For One Rate Cut In 2024

Jun 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Hooray! The S&P 500 closed slightly above our yearend target of 5400 today (chart). The same thing happened to us last year: We were forecasting 4600 by the end of 2024 and got there by mid-year. The index closed around 4800 at the end of last year. So what do we do now? We’ll talk and write more about our 2025 and 2026 targets of 6000 and

Ed Yardeni

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