Stock Market

Market Call: Momentum Meltup, Blowoff Top, Or Both?

Jun 16, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer price disinflation is raising expectations for a Fed rate cut, which is fueling a meltup in stock prices. This morning on CBS' "Face the Nation," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that a rate cut by year-end is a “reasonable prediction.” On Friday, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 4.25% to 4.20%. The technical picture is signaling that it might continue to fall

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Low Inflation Readings Stampede the Bulls

Jun 13, 2024 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) warned markets to expect no more than one interest rate cut over the rest of this year. But the bulls are charging ahead anyway on May's lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation data yesterday and today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 25bps since Monday's high to 4.24% (chart). The Nasdaq hit another record high

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Inflation Moderates & Stocks Soar As Fed Aims For One Rate Cut In 2024

Jun 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Hooray! The S&P 500 closed slightly above our yearend target of 5400 today (chart). The same thing happened to us last year: We were forecasting 4600 by the end of 2024 and got there by mid-year. The index closed around 4800 at the end of last year. So what do we do now? We’ll talk and write more about our 2025 and 2026 targets of 6000 and

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Blue Angels Flying High

Jun 9, 2024 2 min read paid

Our Blue Angels framework shows that the S&P 500 was back in record high territory last week as S&P 500 forward earnings rose to yet another record high (chart). Meanwhile, the S&P 500's forward P/E has been relatively steady just above 20.0 in recent weeks. The S&P 500's forward P/E with and without the MegaCap-8

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Another Rollercoaster Ride.

Jun 2, 2024 3 min read paid

Friday was another wild ride on the S&P 500 rollercoaster. At first, stock prices rose after April's PCED inflation rate released at 8:30 am matched expectations. But then they dropped after a recessionary reading in May's Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer at 10:00 am (chart). The unexpected decrease in the business barometer partly reflected a steep drop in the new orders index,

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Magnificent One?

May 27, 2024 2 min read paid

Stock market pundits have been bemoaning the narrowness of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. It has been led by the Magnificent-7. Now the pundits are fretting that it is being led by just Nvidia, which is up 115.0% ytd versus 11.2% for the S&P 500 (chart). It is also significantly outperforming the Magnificent-6 so far this year. Nvidia is the only

Ed Yardeni

Dow 60,000: Here We Come

May 22, 2024 3 min read

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 for the first time on Friday, May 17 (chart). Today it is back down slightly below this level. We hope the title of this QT doesn't turn out to be a jinx, but we are still aiming for Dow 60,000 by 2030 in our Roaring 2020s scenario. Along the way, there could be corrections and even another bear

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Why Are LargeCaps Doing Better Than SMidCaps?

May 21, 2024 2 min read paid

Why has the S&P 500 LargeCaps stock price index been more expensive than the indexes for the S&P 400 MidCaps and S&P 600 SmallCaps since the pandemic (chart)? From around 2005 until about 2019, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 had mostly been below the forward P/Es of the SMidCaps (chart). The last time that LargeCaps sported higher P/

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Loop-The-Loop

Apr 28, 2024 2 min read

Keep your seat belts on: There may be a few more loop-the-loops in the stock market's rollercoaster ride. Or at least wear a neck brace. It's been a wild ride recently. After peaking at a record high on March 28, the S&P 500 plunged below its 50-day moving average and rose last week closing just below this average (chart). Geopolitical risks remain high, though

Ed Yardeni

Hawks Fly Higher For Longer Than Doves

Apr 16, 2024 2 min read paid

It's official: Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that he and his colleagues aren't convinced that inflation is coming down fast enough to consider cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) any time soon: "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence," Powell said at a moderated

Ed Yardeni

More Bumps Ahead?

Apr 2, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has often said that the road toward lowering inflation down to the Fed's 2.0% target is likely to be bumpy. Nevertheless, there has been no turbulence in the stock market's smooth ascent to new record highs since October 27, 2023, which marked the end of a 10.3% correction in the bull market that started October 12, 2022 (chart). Nevertheless, we

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Market Calls .... as reported in the financial press

Mar 30, 2024 1 min read

We are often asked about our track record in predicting the economy and financial markets. In response, we've compiled a handy chronological list of links to articles in the financial press that have reported on our predictions. We thank those of you have signed up for a full membership to our QuickTakes. You can find a discussion of our "current analysis" approach to forecasting in Dr.

Ed Yardeni

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