Stock Market

Market Call: The Bull Market's Alleged Vulnerabilities

Jul 7, 2024 2 min read

The stock market's bull run since October 12, 2022 has raised some concerns lately. According to the naysayers, earnings growth expectations may be too high because there are mounting signs of an economic slowdown that might lead to an economic recession. The breadth of the stock market rally continues to narrow, which may be confirming that the underlying fundamental support for the bull market is narrowing. If the

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Market Call: Is The Stock Market Hazardous?

Jun 30, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock market rose to another record high last week. It has been doing so in recent weeks led by fewer sectors and fewer stocks. The S&P 500 market-cap-weighted stock price index has significantly outperformed the equal-weighted index in recent weeks (chart). Many technicians warn that this could be a bearish sign in the short-run if the leaders experience a correction. An alternative scenario we favor is that

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Technology Now & Then

Jun 24, 2024 3 min read paid

Are stock market valuations too high? There is no obvious answer to the valuation question. So we are dependent on history for some guidance. We don’t have to go very far back in time to find a meltup that looks similar to the current one. The obvious analogy is to that of the late 1990s: (1) Valuation multiples, now & then. The S&P 500 peaked at a

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Meltup: Earnings-Led Or Valuation-Led?

Jun 19, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Market Call: Momentum Meltup, Blowoff Top, Or Both?

Jun 16, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer price disinflation is raising expectations for a Fed rate cut, which is fueling a meltup in stock prices. This morning on CBS' "Face the Nation," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that a rate cut by year-end is a “reasonable prediction.” On Friday, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 4.25% to 4.20%. The technical picture is signaling that it might continue to fall

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Low Inflation Readings Stampede the Bulls

Jun 13, 2024 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) warned markets to expect no more than one interest rate cut over the rest of this year. But the bulls are charging ahead anyway on May's lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation data yesterday and today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 25bps since Monday's high to 4.24% (chart). The Nasdaq hit another record high

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Inflation Moderates & Stocks Soar As Fed Aims For One Rate Cut In 2024

Jun 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Hooray! The S&P 500 closed slightly above our yearend target of 5400 today (chart). The same thing happened to us last year: We were forecasting 4600 by the end of 2024 and got there by mid-year. The index closed around 4800 at the end of last year. So what do we do now? We’ll talk and write more about our 2025 and 2026 targets of 6000 and

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Blue Angels Flying High

Jun 9, 2024 2 min read paid

Our Blue Angels framework shows that the S&P 500 was back in record high territory last week as S&P 500 forward earnings rose to yet another record high (chart). Meanwhile, the S&P 500's forward P/E has been relatively steady just above 20.0 in recent weeks. The S&P 500's forward P/E with and without the MegaCap-8

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Another Rollercoaster Ride.

Jun 2, 2024 3 min read paid

Friday was another wild ride on the S&P 500 rollercoaster. At first, stock prices rose after April's PCED inflation rate released at 8:30 am matched expectations. But then they dropped after a recessionary reading in May's Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer at 10:00 am (chart). The unexpected decrease in the business barometer partly reflected a steep drop in the new orders index,

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Magnificent One?

May 27, 2024 2 min read paid

Stock market pundits have been bemoaning the narrowness of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. It has been led by the Magnificent-7. Now the pundits are fretting that it is being led by just Nvidia, which is up 115.0% ytd versus 11.2% for the S&P 500 (chart). It is also significantly outperforming the Magnificent-6 so far this year. Nvidia is the only

Ed Yardeni

Dow 60,000: Here We Come

May 22, 2024 3 min read

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 for the first time on Friday, May 17 (chart). Today it is back down slightly below this level. We hope the title of this QT doesn't turn out to be a jinx, but we are still aiming for Dow 60,000 by 2030 in our Roaring 2020s scenario. Along the way, there could be corrections and even another bear

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Why Are LargeCaps Doing Better Than SMidCaps?

May 21, 2024 2 min read paid

Why has the S&P 500 LargeCaps stock price index been more expensive than the indexes for the S&P 400 MidCaps and S&P 600 SmallCaps since the pandemic (chart)? From around 2005 until about 2019, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 had mostly been below the forward P/Es of the SMidCaps (chart). The last time that LargeCaps sported higher P/

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

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