Surveys

Loose Houthis Can Sink Ships

Jan 16, 2024 2 min read

Chevron CEO Michael Wirth warned yesterday in a CNBC interview that the Red Sea crisis could disrupt oil supplies and quickly push oil prices higher: "So much of the world's oil flows through that region that were it to be cut off, I think you could see things change very rapidly," he said. So what did the price of oil do today? It edged down (chart)

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 2–5

Jan 1, 2024 2 min read paid

We made it through another year of living dangerously: 2024 is here! The first week of the new year is unlikely to bring any surprises on the economic front. Most of the indicators will provide insights into the labor market and consumer spending on autos and houses: (1) November's JOLTS report (Tue) should confirm that there are still more job openings than unemployed workers. We know that from

Ed Yardeni

Bonds Yields Down On Weak Goods Economy

Dec 27, 2023 1 min read paid

Bond yields continued to fall today on December's weak manufacturing regional surveys conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve district banks. Furthermore, on Tuesday, Mastercard SpendingPulse reported that retail sales during the holiday shopping season (from November 1 through December 24) were up just over 3% y/y. The increase was weaker excluding the 7.8% increase in restaurant sales. We conclude that the rolling recession for

Ed Yardeni

Roaring Stock Market

Dec 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market came roaring back today led by the stock prices of companies that are benefitting from the Roaring 2020s. Strong results and guidance from Micron Technology boosted shares 9% today, while lifting other chip and semiconductor equipment stocks (chart). Micron is the largest US memory chip maker. Its chips go into a wide range of products. The rally since the correction low on October 27 has been breathtaking

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 27 - December 1

Nov 26, 2023 2 min read paid

The BIG number of the week is likely to be October's personal consumption expenditures deflator (Thu). It should confirm the ongoing moderation in consumer price inflation shown by October's CPI and PPI reports (chart). The core PPI final demand for personal consumption was down to just 2.5% y/y in October. It does not include rent inflation, which is still high but heading lower. The

Ed Yardeni

Halloween Is Over. Is Santa Here Already?

Nov 1, 2023 2 min read paid

It's possible that the S&P 500 bottomed today. Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach appeared on CNBC following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser and opined that the entire yield curve looked attractive, at least for a trade. We agree. He also observed that the S&P 500 might have found support at its uptrend line connecting the lows of March 23, 2020 and October 12,

Ed Yardeni

Will Powell Sound More Dovish On Wednesday?

Oct 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The short answer is: We doubt it. It's unlikely that his views on the economy and monetary policy have changed much since his hawkish interview on October 19 at the Economic Club of New York. So he is likely to maintain the same tone at his presser on Wednesday following the latest FOMC meeting. The message should remain the same. Monetary policy will have to remain restrictive until

Ed Yardeni

Everything Is OK Except For...

Oct 24, 2023 2 min read paid

The Q3 earnings reporting season is underway and going well with Microsoft delivering a big upside earnings surprise after today's close. We still expect that S&P 500 earnings per share rose to a record high during the quarter. That's confirmed by S&P 500 forward earnings (chart). Inflation continues to moderate as confirmed by today's Richmond Fed regional business survey'

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 23-27

Oct 22, 2023 2 min read

This week should be another disappointing one for the hard-landers. That's been true all year and especially during Q3, when the economic surprises were mostly to the upside as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (chart). Q3's real GDP (Thu) is tracking at 5.4% (saar) for the quarter according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. The labor market indicators are likely to show

Ed Yardeni

A Sunny Day With Storm Clouds

Oct 10, 2023 2 min read paid

Despite the dark news coming out of the Middle East, today was sunny in the bond and stock markets. It's possible that the latest geopolitical turmoil has caused the 10-year bond yield to fall to 4.65% today from 4.80% at the end of last week, reflecting a flight to safety, which may be giving stocks a lift. However, the dollar index (DXY) and the price of

Ed Yardeni

Oil's Slippery Slope

Oct 4, 2023 2 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell for a change today. It peaked at 4.87% at 2:45 am, but ended the day at 4.72% thanks to falling oil prices and a weak September payroll employment report from ADP. Brent crude oil futures settled down $5.11, or 5.6%, to $85.81 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $5.01, or 5.6%, to

Ed Yardeni

Why Is the Bond Yield Soaring?

Oct 2, 2023 2 min read paid

The latest batch of economic indicators was weaker than expected. On Friday, we learned that real personal consumption expenditures rose just 0.1% during August. The core PCED edged up by only 0.1% during the month. September’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.4 points to 68.1. As a result, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is down to 47.3% from a recent high of 81.9%

Ed Yardeni

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