Video Webcasts

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/10/23

May 10, 2023 1 min read paid

The stock market has been climbing since mid-October even though pessimism has prevailed among economists and stock market strategists. Today, we examine this “pandemic of pessimism”—how widespread it is, our perspective on the bearish case, what the Fed’s staff thinks is ahead for the US economy, and a few of the voices of doom. … We counter that the stock market’s trend is driven mostly by the earnings

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/3/23

May 3, 2023

The rolling recession continues to roll through the economy, but will the banking crisis cause it to turn into an economy-wide recession? Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/24/23

Apr 26, 2023 1 min read paid

Banks were tightening lending standards before the banking crisis, and the crisis has escalated that. We don’t think a credit crunch will ensue, though we’re monitoring the situation closely. But we agree with Treasury Secretary Yellen that banks’ tightening of credit conditions effectively can substitute for further Fed tightening. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/17/23

Apr 19, 2023 1 min read paid

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s ambiguous warnings about the economy broadly and banks specifically, voiced intermittently since last summer, have probably led many an investor astray. JPM stock has soared 34% since October, and the S&P 500 has leapt 7% in the month or so since SVB imploded, with every sector participating. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/10/23

Apr 12, 2023 1 min read paid

The tug-of-war between the hard-landers and the soft-landers continues. The twists and turns of recent economic-outlook-impacting events have been taking investors for a ride, but our stance remains steadfastly fixed on one outcome: a soft landing of the broad economy with mini recessions continuing to roll through various sectors. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/3/23

Apr 5, 2023 1 min read paid

The S&L crisis of 1990 caused a mild, short-lived recession impacting earnings but not triggering a bear market in stocks. Conversely, we had a bear market last year but no recession (yet?). Similarly, though, the commercial real estate market was hit hard during 1990’s banking crisis and stands now in the eye of the SVB storm, since small banks—the most vulnerable—make most CRE loans. Below

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/27/23

Mar 29, 2023 1 min read paid

The recent banking crisis has heightened fears of a recession. But still the S&P 500 is up ytd—buoyed greatly by the MegaCap-8 stocks. … The SVB debacle hasn’t changed our economic outlook, which pegs the odds of a recession at a relatively high 40%, as we’re not convinced it will lead to a credit crunch that triggers a recession. Below is exclusive early access to Dr

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/20/23

Mar 22, 2023 1 min read

The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the federal funds rate inverted in November; such inversions are predictive of credit crunches and recessions. They also tend to predict financial crises that halt Fed tightening. It’s too early to credit the yield-curve inversion for calling a recession, but it was spot on in presaging a crisis like SVB. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/13/23

Mar 15, 2023 1 min read

Tightening monetary cycles often end abruptly when “something breaks” and a financial crisis is triggered. If the Silicon Valley Bank run is that something, it could mean tightening ends sooner and bond yields have peaked. We can’t say for sure that’s the case but can say the debacle should keep the tech sector mired in its rolling recession for longer. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed&

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/6/23

Mar 8, 2023 1 min read

Productivity was poor last year—declining more than it has since 1974—and growth in unit labor costs was high. But the final quarter of 2022 saw significant improvements in both, and we think the worst is over for both. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. If productivity continues

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/27/23

Mar 1, 2023 1 min read

The stock market beat a hasty retreat in February, spooked by reports of January’s economic strength and the Fed’s dreaded possible reaction. So today we look at what March’s releases of economic data for February might bring. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. They could be

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/21/23

Feb 22, 2023 1 min read paid

What’s next for the US economy? Of four potential outlooks, we see the greatest odds (40%) of a soft landing in which inflation moderates, the Treasury bond remains below last year’s peak, and the S&P 500 ends the year at a new high. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public

Ed Yardeni

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