Video Webcasts

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/23/25

Apr 23, 2025 1 min read paid

On Edge For 90 Days Trump’s Tariff Turmoil has put the world on edge. A new world order may be the ultimate result, but for now we’ve got the New World Disorder, leaving everyone scrambling to adjust to Trump’s unpredictable policy pivots. The economic fallout is uncertain. The uncertainty is keeping Wall Street on edge. It’s keeping US trading partner nations on edge. It’s keeping

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/16/25

Apr 16, 2025 1 min read paid

Bonds Away!? Long-term Treasury bond yields surged last week despite news that March inflation was subdued and consumer sentiment is falling fast. That’s partly because the federal budget deficit is too d@mn high! In the past, recessions and lower long-term bond yields were associated with higher deficits; but the budget deficit has been widening since Covid despite a growing economy. Supply of long-term bonds also affects yields, but

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/9/25

Apr 9, 2025 1 min read paid

Annihilation Days Trump’s Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday, with the Stock Market Vigilantes giving a costly thumbs-down to Trump’s Reign of Tariffs. Trump officials say they aim to make Main Street wealthy again even if that’s bad for Wall Street. The problem is that Main Street owns lots of equities traded on Wall Street, so the two streets prosper and suffer

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/2/25

Apr 2, 2025 1 min read paid

Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs: Stagflation Odds Up, S&P 500 Target Down The expected fallout from Trump 2.0’s Reign of Tariffs undercuts our former bullishness and dims the prospects of our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario for now. It has also drained confidence in the US economy on the parts of everyone from CEOs to consumers to investors. Recent data showing manufacturing faltering and purchasing managers paying

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/26/25

Mar 26, 2025 1 min read paid

The Fed’s Economic Forecast Versus The Consensus & Ours Investors clearly fear a recession is coming—that’s what the recent stock market correction suggests. The consensus of economists probably puts the prospect of a recession at 35% (as we now do). Fed officials likely expect to avert a recession by lowering interest rates; FOMC meeting participants dropped their GDP projections last week to 1.7% this year. As

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/19/25

Mar 19, 2025 1 min read paid

The Bull Versus The Bear Case Will all the Trump turmoil deepen the recent stock market correction into a bear market? Very few bear markets have occurred without accompanying recessions. If no recession looms, today’s historically stretched valuations could be sustained, Dr Ed says. But the Trump factor is unpredictable, and a trade war could cause a recession. Would Trump pivot before that point, pressured by the Stock Market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/12/25

Mar 12, 2025 1 min read paid

High Noise-To-Signal Ratios Unnerving Stock Investors It’s getting harder to make out the shape of the economy through the fog of Trump 2.0’s firings and tariffs. Indeed, one regional Fed bank sees real GDP contracting this quarter, another sees it expanding, and bad weather has distorted signals from several economic indicators. No wonder the stock market’s default position is risk-off and stocks have been correcting. We’

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/5/25

Mar 5, 2025 1 min read paid

Testing The Resilience Of The US Economy We continue to bet on the resilience of the American economy. Yes, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lowered its Q1 GDP forecast significantly on Friday. The volatile model swung in response to January’s surge in imported goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs. In addition, consumer spending was depressed by a colder-than-usual January, but consumer spending and the model are bound to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/26/25

Feb 26, 2025 1 min read paid

A Tale Of Woes While Ed and Eric have been accentuating the positives in the stock market outlook and also acknowledging the negatives, investors and many commentators seem suddenly to be doing the opposite. Today, Ed outlines both the concerns that dragged the stock market off its midweek record high last week and our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario (55% subjective odds). Even if a 1990s-style meltup was followed by a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/19/25

Feb 19, 2025 1 min read paid

The Gunfight At DOGE City The Bond Vigilantes aren’t saddling up just yet, but they’re on high alert, Ed reports. They’re watching to see whether anti-DOGE gunslingers will cripple the new federal department or whether DOGE will root out sufficient government inefficiencies to enable Trump 2.0 to slow the budget deficit’s growth and proceed on its tax-cut plans. The stakes are high for the US

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/12/25

Feb 12, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of Full Employment When others saw labor market weakening last summer, we saw normalization from the settling down of pandemic-period churn. Our labor market outlook remains constructive. The growth of the labor force should continue to slow, but demand for workers will remain strong, keeping the labor market needle at full employment. Strong productivity gains from widespread AI adoption and a full-employment labor market should spur robust real wage

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/5/25

Feb 5, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of Gross National Product Why is the US economy so strong? Look in the mirror: The consumer is the engine of growth. Yes, technological advancements will continue to buoy GDP, as will Trump 2.0 deregulation and lower taxes. But consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of real GDP. We reject the notion that consumer spending will slow in the face of depleted saving and other drags; it’s

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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