Video Webcasts

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Japan’s Brawl With The Bond Vigilantes

May 28, 2025 1 min read paid

After last week’s portentous Japanese government bond auction, in which demand was so weak as to be off the charts, William explains what went wrong and why. Contributing factors included the BOJ’s halted tightening owing to “tariff haze,” the Prime Minister’s unfortunate remark likening the nation’s fiscal situation to that of Greece, and vestiges of Japan’s economic past. But having Japan-specific causes doesn’t detract

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/21/25

May 21, 2025 1 min read paid

Meltup In Stocks Or Meltdown In Bonds? Two scenarios to put on your radar: Bond prices might melt down if the Bond Vigilantes are roused by the downgrading of the US’s sovereign debt rating and/or the prospect that Trump’s tax-cut bill worsens the federal budget deficit outlook and/or tariff-related inflation. But a bond market meltdown could force Washington to set the US onto a more sustainable

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/14/25

May 14, 2025 1 min read paid

Earnings & Valuation Under Trump 2.0 So Far Even though Q1 earnings were fabulous, most economists, industry analysts, and corporate managements have low hopes that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil won’t dunk the US economy into a recession this year. Not us: We’re counting on the economy’s resilience. Today, Dr Ed discusses why the widely expected recession, like others in recent years, will be a no-show. Hard-to-ignore

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/7/25

May 7, 2025 1 min read paid

Is The Recession Over Already? We believe in the resilience of the US economy. Recent years’ monetary tightening didn’t bring on a recession; this year’s tariff turmoil isn’t likely to either. We’re lowering the odds we see of a recession back to 35%, where it had been in early March. One reason is that China and the US appear ready to start negotiating a trade deal.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/30/25

Apr 30, 2025 1 min read paid

Anatomy Of A Correction A dovish faction has been forming within the Federal Reserve Board, dissenting from Chief Powell’s hawkish party line. Rather than wait and see whether tariffs deliver greater blows to the economic or the inflation outlook before changing monetary-policy course, the doves claim that the economy is more vulnerable and espouse lowering the federal funds rate sooner rather than later. Dr Ed sides with Powell &

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/23/25

Apr 23, 2025 1 min read paid

On Edge For 90 Days Trump’s Tariff Turmoil has put the world on edge. A new world order may be the ultimate result, but for now we’ve got the New World Disorder, leaving everyone scrambling to adjust to Trump’s unpredictable policy pivots. The economic fallout is uncertain. The uncertainty is keeping Wall Street on edge. It’s keeping US trading partner nations on edge. It’s keeping

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/16/25

Apr 16, 2025 1 min read paid

Bonds Away!? Long-term Treasury bond yields surged last week despite news that March inflation was subdued and consumer sentiment is falling fast. That’s partly because the federal budget deficit is too d@mn high! In the past, recessions and lower long-term bond yields were associated with higher deficits; but the budget deficit has been widening since Covid despite a growing economy. Supply of long-term bonds also affects yields, but

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/9/25

Apr 9, 2025 1 min read paid

Annihilation Days Trump’s Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday, with the Stock Market Vigilantes giving a costly thumbs-down to Trump’s Reign of Tariffs. Trump officials say they aim to make Main Street wealthy again even if that’s bad for Wall Street. The problem is that Main Street owns lots of equities traded on Wall Street, so the two streets prosper and suffer

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/2/25

Apr 2, 2025 1 min read paid

Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs: Stagflation Odds Up, S&P 500 Target Down The expected fallout from Trump 2.0’s Reign of Tariffs undercuts our former bullishness and dims the prospects of our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario for now. It has also drained confidence in the US economy on the parts of everyone from CEOs to consumers to investors. Recent data showing manufacturing faltering and purchasing managers paying

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/26/25

Mar 26, 2025 1 min read paid

The Fed’s Economic Forecast Versus The Consensus & Ours Investors clearly fear a recession is coming—that’s what the recent stock market correction suggests. The consensus of economists probably puts the prospect of a recession at 35% (as we now do). Fed officials likely expect to avert a recession by lowering interest rates; FOMC meeting participants dropped their GDP projections last week to 1.7% this year. As

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/19/25

Mar 19, 2025 1 min read paid

The Bull Versus The Bear Case Will all the Trump turmoil deepen the recent stock market correction into a bear market? Very few bear markets have occurred without accompanying recessions. If no recession looms, today’s historically stretched valuations could be sustained, Dr Ed says. But the Trump factor is unpredictable, and a trade war could cause a recession. Would Trump pivot before that point, pressured by the Stock Market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/12/25

Mar 12, 2025 1 min read paid

High Noise-To-Signal Ratios Unnerving Stock Investors It’s getting harder to make out the shape of the economy through the fog of Trump 2.0’s firings and tariffs. Indeed, one regional Fed bank sees real GDP contracting this quarter, another sees it expanding, and bad weather has distorted signals from several economic indicators. No wonder the stock market’s default position is risk-off and stocks have been correcting. We’

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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