Video Webcasts

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/18/24

Dec 18, 2024 1 min read paid

Lots of crosscurrents are converging to determine the course of inflation in 2025. So projecting that course takes seeing where those currents are headed, predicting with the aid of historical correlations how they’ll likely impact inflation, then overlaying potential economic scenarios to see how they change the narrative. The result: Dr Ed’s three inflation scenarios—the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. In the Good, rising productivity growth

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/11/24

Dec 11, 2024 1 min read paid

As Taylor Swift ends her Eras tour, Dr Ed starts his Roaring 2020s Tour to meet with our accounts. Last week in Texas, they shared their concerns about the “known unknowns,” as the new administration represents a significant policy regime change. On balance, Trump 2.0 should perpetuate our Roaring 2020s scenario. Fortunately, the US economy and financial markets are resilient and tend to outperform globally whomever occupies the White

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/4/24

Dec 4, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, Dr. Ed examines Baby Boomer economics. The Boomers are sitting on sizable nest eggs that continue to expand along with home prices and stock prices. They are starting to spend more of their net worth as they retire. Many Boomers are not empty nesters but have grown children living at home and are providing them with financial support. The population bulge that has had outsized effects on markets in

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/27/24

Nov 27, 2024 1 min read paid

With economic growth robust and the stock market at a record high, we’re living the Roaring 2020s now. The economy’s resilience has been remarkable considering the headwinds it has faced. While the outlook under Trump 2.0 involves lots of moving parts, we don’t see the net effects of his policies jeopardizing the Roaring 2020s’ continuation. In this scenario (with our 55% subjective probability), Trump 2.0

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein
Jackie Doherty

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/20/24

Nov 20, 2024 1 min read paid

The US Constitution was designed to promote gridlock. But the benefits of gridlock are undermined by lawmakers’ spending freely because the Constitution lacks a balanced budget requirement. … Gridlock is good for investing, but the stock market tends to do well no matter who is in the White House. Trump’s proposals—representing a radical change from Biden’s policies—are likely to materialize because he won a clean sweep. Today,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/13/24

Nov 13, 2024 1 min read paid

Something’s amiss with Fed Chair Powell’s explanation for lowering the federal fund rate a second time in two months despite an economy he admits is performing remarkably well. He tied the rationale for the move to the theoretical “neutral FFR,” implying that monetary policy needs to be less restrictive to reach that point, even though that point is intrinsically unknowable. Also implied was that the related risks are

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/6/24

Nov 6, 2024 1 min read paid

The bond market seems to be ignoring developments that usually halt rising yields in their track. Investors seem focused instead on the stimulus—both fiscal and monetary—that’s likely coming to an economy that doesn’t need it. The effective result: The bond market is tightening the economy itself. The Bond Vigilantes are back and threatening to take the 10-year Treasury bond yield up to the 5% realm. That

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/30/24

Oct 30, 2024 1 min read paid

Goldman Sachs’ bold projection that the next 10 years may be a “lost decade” for stocks, with mere 3% annual returns, is unlikely in the extreme, says Dr Ed. It seems to rest on the assumption that valuations in the future will be lower than today’s. Even without expanding valuation multiples, earnings growth would likely boost the S&P 500 price index at a pace that’s at

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/25/24

Oct 25, 2024 1 min read

The US presidential and congressional elections aren't until November 5, but the Bond Vigilantes are voting early. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has risen a whopping 63 basis points to 4.25% since the Fed's September 17-18 meeting (chart). In exit polls, the Bond Vigilantes are saying they are voting against Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish monetary policy because the economy is running

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/16/24

Oct 16, 2024 1 min read paid

As the bull market turns two, Dr. Ed fondly recollects the performance of the young raging bull. At times, the bull charged and at times stomped its hooves on the ground in reaction to the monetary policy, earnings expectations, and economic outlooks waved in front of it. Yet the bull trampled even our heady expectations this year, passing our year-end S&P 500 forecast ahead of schedule. At the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/9/24

Oct 9, 2024 1 min read paid

It takes a lot to kill an economic expansion, often a credit crisis during periods of Fed tightening that escalates into a credit crunch and a recession. The latest tightening has ended, and that didn’t happen. Now the latest batch of strong economic data should finally lay to rest the diehard hard-landers’ recession warnings. It should also cast doubt on whether the Fed needed to ease at all on

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/2/24

Oct 2, 2024 1 min read paid

The permabears have fueled much negativity about the outlooks for the US economy and stock market. Their analyses often don’t hold up to scrutiny. Today, Dr Ed puts the prospects of a recession and a bear market into perspective, historically and in light of recent BEA data releases. The data show the economy to be remarkably resilient, including the goods producing sector. … With a strong economy and no recession

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein
Jackie Doherty

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