Video Webcasts

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/18/24

Sep 18, 2024 1 min read paid

It’s a foregone conclusion that the Federal Open Market Committee will be launching a new monetary easing cycle by cutting the federal funds rate when it meets this week. But a weighty decision faces the committee: To cut by 50 basis points or not to cut that much? Fifty is the usual amount kicking off an easing cycle, but the economic circumstances are different this time: There’s no

Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/11/24

Sep 11, 2024 1 min read paid

The latest batch of labor market indicators has caused a temporary “growth scare,” in our opinion. Concerns that economic growth is slowing have convinced the markets that the Fed will open up the easing spigots and cut the federal funds rate by more than we expect. … Previous peaks in the yield-curve spread suggest that the bond yield is close to bottoming. … There were bright spots in the employment report too:

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/4/24

Sep 4, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, Dr. Ed puts the notion of a recession still to come into perspective. Since 1945, the US economy has been in recession 14% of the time. Most of the nine recessions stemmed from the credit-crunching effects of monetary tightening. The most recent tightening round won’t likely trigger a recession despite the “long and variable lag” often noted before the economy reacts to tightening. That’s because this tightening

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein
Jackie Doherty

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/28/24

Aug 28, 2024 1 min read paid

It was an unambiguously dovish Fed Chair Powell who described the Fed’s intentions for US monetary policy at the Jackson Hole gathering of global central bankers on Friday. In our opinion, he was too dovish for this point in the economic cycle. After all, successful execution of the Fed’s dual mandate basically has been achieved: Inflation is headed on autopilot down to the 2.0% target (thanks to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/21/24

Aug 21, 2024 1 min read paid

Last week saw unfounded US recession fears and global financial market jitters go poof as quickly as they arrived. Dr. Ed examines what the markets were overreacting to when they beat a hasty retreat and the subsequent developments that set investors straight. … Weather was the reason for much of the weakness in July’s economic indicators, suggesting that August’s data may surprise on the upside and that Fed officials

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/14/24

Aug 14, 2024 1 min read paid

Corporate earnings have never been higher, suggesting that employment should continue to grow as profitable companies expand their payrolls. Today, Ed and Eric put the prospect of a recession into perspective with their “Credit Crisis Cycle.” Ed notes that S&P 500 companies’ record-high forward earnings is a bullish indicator for the stock price index. The S&P 500 forward profit margin is near its record high and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/7/24

Aug 7, 2024 1 min read paid

A weak July employment report does not a recession make. The financial markets reacted on Friday as though it does, but we believe that report was a weather-impacted anomaly and not representative of the strength of the US labor market. Eric & Ed make that case today, explaining what was going on behind the scenes to make Friday’s stock market unusually volatile, why we expect employment data to snap

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/31/24

Jul 31, 2024 1 min read paid

If economic performance were an Olympic sport, America would sweep up gold medals. The US economy hit record-high real GDP, real consumer spending, and real consumption per household (a barometer for standards of living) last quarter. It has achieved the feat of “immaculate disinflation”—falling inflation without recessionary fallout—as PCED inflation is fast approaching the Fed’s 2.0% target. Real capital spending by businesses also stood at a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/24/24

Jul 24, 2024 1 min read paid

Characterizing the investing backdrop at this juncture are big unknowns about the near-term future, such as which administration will be controlling fiscal policy six months from now and what monetary policy will be at that time. So it’s no wonder that multiple consensus viewpoints seem to be moving financial markets this way and that. Today, Dr. Ed and Eric Wallerstein examine what’s been driving the commodities, fixed income,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/17/24

Jul 17, 2024 1 min read paid

In congressional testimony last week, Fed Chair Powell sounded more dovish than he has this tightening cycle. That clinched financial markets’ growing expectation that the Fed would cut the federal funds rate as early as September. We believe so too. Now that inflation is closing in on the Fed’s 2.0% target, Fed officials are increasingly focused on keeping the unemployment rate low. … From today’s vantage point, it’

Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/10/24

Jul 10, 2024 1 min read paid

Signs that the Fed might lower the federal funds rate soon have sent stocks soaring, even though those signs were weak economic data. So the Fed Put is back. We’re concerned that the Fed might ease too soon, switching its mandate focus from inflation to unemployment. That could be a wrong move given the likelihoods that the soft patch won’t grow into a recession and that trade policies

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/3/24

Jul 3, 2024 1 min read paid

Personal consumption expenditures data for May suggest clear skies on both the inflation and income fronts: The PCED has been gliding steadily earthward and looks on course to reach the Fed’s 2.0% y/y destination for it by year-end. Consumer spending has been showing no sign of retrenchment, and consumption trends jibe with our rosy economic outlook. Moderating inflation with a robust economy argue against the Fed’s

Eric Wallerstein
Ed Yardeni

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