Video Webcasts

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 6/12/24

Jun 12, 2024 1 min read paid

How the labor market is doing is critical to the Fed’s setting of monetary policy given its dual mandate to steer the economy away from both too-high unemployment and too-high inflation. But gauging how the labor market is doing can be a stumper: Two different employment indicators point in different directions. … Less ambivalent are the indicators of wage inflation: All point to continued moderation. … We believe the labor market

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 6/5/24

Jun 5, 2024 1 min read paid

Our economic and S&P 500 forecasts are underpinned by our forecasts for corporate revenues, earnings, and profit margins. We often compare them to industry analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 companies in aggregate and how they change over time in response to earnings reports. Today, we illustrate this process by showing how data from Q1’s earnings season have fed into our own annual and forward

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/29/24

May 29, 2024 1 min read paid

Geopolitical events can shake up the stock market, sometimes providing buying opportunities. The current geopolitical landscape is unsettled and unsettling, with potentially seismic ramifications on several fronts and lots of uncertainties: Is Putin’s call for negotiations with Ukraine a nonstarter? Is it even real? Are US efforts at brokering peace in the Middle East progressing toward that end or is that notion wishful thinking? Does the heightened pitch of

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/22/24

May 22, 2024 1 min read paid

Boomer-led households’ collective net worth has skyrocketed 19-fold since 1990. As the generation has lived long and prospered, so has the stock market (rising 40-fold over their adulthood) and the US economy (with nominal GDP up eightfold since 1982). Looking ahead, our Roaring 2020s scenario assumes faster-than-average growth for S&P 500 earnings, GDP, and productivity. Faster productivity growth should depress unit labor costs and inflation in a process

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/16/24

May 16, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, we look at cracks in the story that consumers are cracking. Crack proponents expect consumers to start saving more and spending less because they’ve depleted their excess saving from the pandemic years. We expect personal saving rates to stay low and consumer spending to stay high as Baby Boomers, done with paying college tuitions and mortgage loans, spend their sizable nest eggs. (Many apparently are buying big-ticket items

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/8/24

May 8, 2024 1 min read paid

Investors in both stock and bond markets are suddenly blooming with optimism. Both markets rallied on Friday’s (mostly) positive employment report, including yet another sub-4.0% jobless rate and despite some negatives in the report. Stoking the optimism, perversely, has been economic news suggesting weakening: Cheery investors have focused not on that but on the potential ramification of it, that interest rates won’t be kept higher for longer

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/1/24

May 1, 2024 1 min read paid

One quarter does not stagflation make. True, the March quarter’s real GDP growth rate was down from the December quarter’s, while inflation was up—a combination that calls to mind “stagflation.” But the current economic scenario is nothing like the stagflationary environment of the late 1970s, when the combination of anemic GDP growth and out-of-control inflation crippled economic activity. … Today, we look at data confirming that economic activity

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/25/24

Apr 25, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, we rant about rent and the housing market. Like a fun house mirror without the fun, several housing-related forces are distorting economic activity. There’s the distortive way rent inflation is measured in the headline CPI; if the BLS’s new All Tenant Rent index were used instead, the Fed would be fighting too-low inflation! … There are the forces messing with supply and demand, depressing the supply of homes

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/17/24

Apr 17, 2024 1 min read paid

As the war in the Middle East escalates, it could send the oil price flying toward $100 per barrel and wipe out our expectations of continued moderation in US inflation (notwithstanding March’s anomalous CPI). … Barring that ugly scenario, our inflation outlook is good, with continued moderation to the Fed’s 2.0% target—which, notably, we wouldn’t view as justifying Fed easing this year. … But there are flies

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/11/24

Apr 10, 2024 1 min read paid

There was no recession last year, but the widespread expectation of one depressed certain economic activities, like hiring. With that depressant now lifted, several labor market indicators shot to record highs in March. … Consumer spending has been strong, especially by Baby Boomers and especially on services, keeping demand for service workers robust. Strong employment and wage growth in turn have boosted consumer spending. … Real average hourly earnings has resumed its

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/4/24

Apr 4, 2024 1 min read paid

The US economy is flying high and should continue to do so. It has defied the past two years’ widespread expectations that it would land hard or fall into recession. In fact, last year’s real GDP growth of 3.1% matched the 48-year average. Fiscal stimulus has helped, but the major engine has been robust consumer spending as Baby Boomers spend their wealth. With consumption per household near its

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/27/24

Mar 27, 2024 1 min read paid

Is the “Fed Put” back? Might the Fed’s assurances that interest rates will be brought down this year (as long as inflation behaves as expected) fuel irrational exuberance among investors? And what if interest rates really don’t need to come down, because the notion that they do rests on a faulty premise—the “long and variable lag” thesis? Our Post-Modern Monetary Theory suggests that monetary tightening doesn’t

Ed Yardeni

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