Video Webcasts

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/21/24

Today, we analyze the analysts, noting that they tend be influenced by stock market meltups—thus fueling the meltups—and during meltups tend to raise their long-term earnings growth rates unrealistically high. Nevertheless, we explain why we follow their forward earnings, revenues, and profit margin projections closely. We also give our projections for the S&P 500 companies’ operating earnings, revenues, profit margins, as well as the index’s

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/14/24

High inflation rarely has been tamed without precipitating a recession. Few economic prognosticators thought it could be done. Yet the Fed has steered inflation down toward its 2.0% target while allowing the US economy to fly, avoiding a hard landing. Today, we look at the projections of economists who expected a hard landing of the economy and why their trusty models and indicators failed them. Below is exclusive early

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/7/24

The pandemic distorted the economy in many ways, including derailing the productivity boom that we’d been expecting would characterize this decade—our Roaring 2020s scenario. That boom now may be back on track; productivity growth was well above the historical average during the past three quarters. If so, the ramifications for economic growth would be profound, as GDP growth is a function of labor force growth plus productivity growth.

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/31/24

It doesn’t take a recession to bring down inflation to the Fed’s target! “Immaculate disinflation,” widely dismissed as a fairy tale, has come true. In fact, the current economic picture is enchanting, with GDP growth remaining robust, inflation moderating, unemployment remaining low, and consumer spending holding up even as pandemic-era saving depletes. The fairy dust that’s enabled this ideal economy: productivity growth, three quarters strong and counting.

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/24/24

Now that investors’ recession fears have abated, they’re focusing on company fundamentals again, so good corporate news is having a stronger bullish impact. Additionally, investors are excited about the potential of AI and the prospect of Fed easing. The possible result: an exuberant meltup phase, which might already be under way and might become irrational. … Unless Fed Chair Powell stresses that he’s in no rush to ease, a

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/17/24

The runaway inflation of the 1970s was whipped only after Paul Volcker took over as Fed chief, doing the deed but not without precipitating a recession. Powell’s efforts to engineer “immaculate disinflation,” lowering inflation without a recession, have gone well so far, as we’ve been expecting. But the specter of 1970s inflation’s twin peaks must keep him up at nights now that Middle East hostilities raise the

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/10/24

The point between Fed tightening and easing is a good time to reconsider the widely accepted long-and-variable-lags theory of monetary policy. Is the economy still vulnerable to recession from the lagged effects of the 2022-2023 tightening round? We don’t think so. The markets have already started to ease, which should offset some lagged tightening effects. Furthermore, lagged tightening effects don’t invariably cause recessions. Our work shows that recessions

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/3/24

How likely is the stock market to have a down year in 2024? Since down years tend to be associated with recessions, and since a recession is unlikely now that inflation has been approaching the Fed’s target, and since the Fed looks more likely to ease than not, it’s hard to see the stock market ending 2024 lower than it began. Our last Morning Briefing of 2023 provided

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/20/23

The bears who still expect a recession base their arguments on historical precedents: At times in the past when economic indicators were flashing the signs they are today, recessions occurred. But we see good reasons not to apply past rules of thumb to the current set of circumstances. Moreover, our Roaring 2020s thesis that widespread adoption of new technologies will set off a productivity boom is unfolding. As a result,

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/14/23

The economy has proven resilient, defying all the reasons it shouldn’t be, to which diehard hard landers still cling. We expect that it will remain resilient and that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed’s target (a.k.a. “immaculate disinflation”). In this scenario, the Fed won’t be rushing to ease and won’t ease by much. The Fed’s policy stance is perhaps better cast

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/6/23