Video Webcasts

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/20/24

Nov 20, 2024 1 min read paid

The US Constitution was designed to promote gridlock. But the benefits of gridlock are undermined by lawmakers’ spending freely because the Constitution lacks a balanced budget requirement. … Gridlock is good for investing, but the stock market tends to do well no matter who is in the White House. Trump’s proposals—representing a radical change from Biden’s policies—are likely to materialize because he won a clean sweep. Today,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/13/24

Nov 13, 2024 1 min read paid

Something’s amiss with Fed Chair Powell’s explanation for lowering the federal fund rate a second time in two months despite an economy he admits is performing remarkably well. He tied the rationale for the move to the theoretical “neutral FFR,” implying that monetary policy needs to be less restrictive to reach that point, even though that point is intrinsically unknowable. Also implied was that the related risks are

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/6/24

Nov 6, 2024 1 min read paid

The bond market seems to be ignoring developments that usually halt rising yields in their track. Investors seem focused instead on the stimulus—both fiscal and monetary—that’s likely coming to an economy that doesn’t need it. The effective result: The bond market is tightening the economy itself. The Bond Vigilantes are back and threatening to take the 10-year Treasury bond yield up to the 5% realm.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/30/24

Oct 30, 2024 1 min read paid

Goldman Sachs’ bold projection that the next 10 years may be a “lost decade” for stocks, with mere 3% annual returns, is unlikely in the extreme, says Dr Ed. It seems to rest on the assumption that valuations in the future will be lower than today’s. Even without expanding valuation multiples, earnings growth would likely boost the S&P 500 price index at a pace that’s at

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/25/24

Oct 25, 2024 1 min read

The US presidential and congressional elections aren't until November 5, but the Bond Vigilantes are voting early. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has risen a whopping 63 basis points to 4.25% since the Fed's September 17-18 meeting (chart). In exit polls, the Bond Vigilantes are saying they are voting against Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish monetary policy because the economy

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/16/24

Oct 16, 2024 1 min read paid

As the bull market turns two, Dr. Ed fondly recollects the performance of the young raging bull. At times, the bull charged and at times stomped its hooves on the ground in reaction to the monetary policy, earnings expectations, and economic outlooks waved in front of it. Yet the bull trampled even our heady expectations this year, passing our year-end S&P 500 forecast ahead of schedule. At

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/9/24

Oct 9, 2024 1 min read paid

It takes a lot to kill an economic expansion, often a credit crisis during periods of Fed tightening that escalates into a credit crunch and a recession. The latest tightening has ended, and that didn’t happen. Now the latest batch of strong economic data should finally lay to rest the diehard hard-landers’ recession warnings. It should also cast doubt on whether the Fed needed to ease at all

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/2/24

Oct 2, 2024 1 min read paid

The permabears have fueled much negativity about the outlooks for the US economy and stock market. Their analyses often don’t hold up to scrutiny. Today, Dr Ed puts the prospects of a recession and a bear market into perspective, historically and in light of recent BEA data releases. The data show the economy to be remarkably resilient, including the goods producing sector. … With a strong economy and no recession

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/18/24

Sep 18, 2024 1 min read paid

It’s a foregone conclusion that the Federal Open Market Committee will be launching a new monetary easing cycle by cutting the federal funds rate when it meets this week. But a weighty decision faces the committee: To cut by 50 basis points or not to cut that much? Fifty is the usual amount kicking off an easing cycle, but the economic circumstances are different this time: There’s no

Stephen Rybka

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/11/24

Sep 11, 2024 1 min read paid

The latest batch of labor market indicators has caused a temporary “growth scare,” in our opinion. Concerns that economic growth is slowing have convinced the markets that the Fed will open up the easing spigots and cut the federal funds rate by more than we expect. … Previous peaks in the yield-curve spread suggest that the bond yield is close to bottoming. … There were bright spots in the employment report

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/4/24

Sep 4, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, Dr. Ed puts the notion of a recession still to come into perspective. Since 1945, the US economy has been in recession 14% of the time. Most of the nine recessions stemmed from the credit-crunching effects of monetary tightening. The most recent tightening round won’t likely trigger a recession despite the “long and variable lag” often noted before the economy reacts to tightening. That’s because this

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/28/24

Aug 28, 2024 1 min read paid

It was an unambiguously dovish Fed Chair Powell who described the Fed’s intentions for US monetary policy at the Jackson Hole gathering of global central bankers on Friday. In our opinion, he was too dovish for this point in the economic cycle. After all, successful execution of the Fed’s dual mandate basically has been achieved: Inflation is headed on autopilot down to the 2.0% target (thanks to

Ed Yardeni

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