Wages

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 24-28

Mar 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The predominant theme of the economic week ahead will be inflation, both realized and expected. Consumer inflation expectations will be updated for March, while February's PCED inflation rate also will be released (both Fri). Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints last month aren't likely to translate to the PCED due to some hotter components that feed through to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Regardless,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Big Employment Increase Puts Recession Story to Bed

Oct 4, 2024 3 min read paid

This morning's payroll employment report for September and upward revisions for July and August were much stronger than the consensus expected. We weren't surprised. They should bury the looming recession scenario. Stock futures immediately surged, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 10bps to 3.95%, and the dollar moved higher. As we previously observed, the Fed's 50bps cut in the federal funds rate on September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead

Sep 29, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. The Fed started a new monetary easing cycle on September 18, cutting the federal funds rate by 50bps. The question now is how hard will it press on the gas pedal? Given last week's cooler-than-expected inflation print, the Fed will most likely retain its bias for easier monetary policy unless the labor market data are surprisingly strong. The consensus currently

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Powell Says Economy Is Normalizing & September Rate Cut Is On The Table

Jul 31, 2024 3 min read paid

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged between 5.25%-5.50% at today's meeting, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did signal that a 25bps rate cut is highly likely at the September meeting now that the labor market is "normalizing" and inflation is cooling. The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields slid by about 6 basis points during

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Recession Claim

May 9, 2024 2 min read

One of our competitors claims that we are in a recession. Another claims that we will soon be in a recession. The most widely anticipated recession of all times is turning into the longest widely anticipated recession of all times. One day, the diehard hard-landers will be right. Was today the day? We're sure that their heartbeats quickened on today's jobless claims report. Consider the following:

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stocks & Bonds Rally Despite Weak Productivity Report

May 2, 2024 2 min read

Go figure: Stocks & bonds sold off on Tuesday following a hotter-than-expected Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI). It was up 5.4% q/q (saar) and 4.1% y/y. Today, they both rallied despite a hot Q1 unit labor costs inflation report. We agree with the markets' response to today's news because it is consistent with our view that inflation is still moderating when measured on

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 2 - 6

Sep 30, 2023 2 min read paid

The first week of the month is usually jampacked with employment indicator releases. On balance, we expect they will show that the labor market remains relatively strong. August's JOLTS report (Tue) could show that job openings fell but remained high as evidenced by the "jobs plentiful" series in the consumer confidence survey (chart). The jobs plentiful series also suggests less upward pressure on wages, as measured

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Still Cooling

Sep 13, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's CPI report suggests that inflation is continuing to cool. That's not a new development so the financial markets barely reacted. Needless to say, if the report suggested that inflation wasn't moderating, both bond and stock prices would have tanked. We are expecting a weak retail sales report tomorrow, which should be greeted favorably by both. We attribute much of the decline in the

Ed Yardeni

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