The big event this week will be January's CPI release on Tuesday. Bond yields rose and stock prices fell last week as investors started anticipating a bad print. The Cleveland Fed provides a daily model-based Inflation Nowcast. On February 10, it showed the headline and core indexes increasing 0.65% and 0.46% last month. These are high compared to the MarketWatch consensus of 0.4% and 0.3%.
December's readings were 0.1% and 0.4%, which were revised by BLS on Friday from -0.1% and o.3%. October and November were also revised higher. These revisions were attributable to new seasonal adjustment factors. So the y/y comparisons remained the same.
The MarketWatch consensus for January's y/y headline and core CPI are 6.2% and 5.4%, which would confirm the moderating trend in inflation compared to December's 6.5% and 5.7%.
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