This will be a head spinning week. It could also be another rollercoaster ride in the financial markets. Maybe we should go on vacation and come back on Friday following the deluge of economic indicators from Monday through Thursday, and a FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to boot.
May's CPI will be released on Tuesday morning just as the FOMC convenes for a two-day meeting, which will include the committee's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will update us on the committee's latest views. Odds are the FOMC will skip another rate hike, but hint that rate hiking might not be over.
We are expecting the CPI continued to moderate during May as suggested by the "percent planning to raise average selling prices" in the NFIB survey of small business owners (chart). May's survey will also be out on Tuesday. Monday's NYFRB survey of consumers' inflationary expectations during May should also show continuing moderation. By the way, we also expect to see CPI rent inflation is finally cooling.
