Archive

Most Widely Anticipated Recession Ever

Nov 28, 2022 2 min read

Our contrarian instincts give us more confidence in our “growth recession,” or “mid-cycle slowdown,” scenario. A recession next year would be the most widely anticipated downturn on record. Consider the following: (1) Philly Fed’s Anxious Index. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, which started during Q4-1968, includes the Anxious Index, which is the probability of a decline in real GDP (chart). The survey asks panelists

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/28/22

Nov 28, 2022 1 min read

The consensus is now bracing for a 2023 recession that tempers inflation and ends the Fed’s reign of tightening but also depresses corporate earnings, suggesting more downside for stocks’ valuation multiples. We’re more optimistic, expecting Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. We’re more optimistic, expecting no

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Nov. 28-Dec. 2

Nov 27, 2022 2 min read paid

We hope you had a chance to relax with your family and friends and to recharge your batteries during the Thanksgiving holiday. We did. The big question that will be answered this week is whether the labor market remains charged up. There may be some signs that it is slowing given layoffs in the tech industry and the modest upturn in initial unemployment claims in recent weeks.

Ed Yardeni

Yield Curve Spread Signaling Rate Peak

Nov 27, 2022 2 min read

The yield curve spread between the 2-year US Treasury note and the 10-year US Treasury bond is a leading indictor of several cyclical financial and economic developments. It tends to invert (i.e., to turn negative) before economic downturns (chart). So it tends to predict recessions. We think that yield curve inversions actually predict that the Fed's monetary policy is getting too tight, which could trigger a financial

Ed Yardeni

China's Zero-Covid Policy Is A Disaster

Nov 24, 2022 1 min read

Investors are hoping that the Chinese government will soon ease its zero-Covid policies. The facts on the ground suggest that the latest wave of the pandemic is getting worse in China and that the government is continuing to respond with more lockdowns and other severe restrictions (chart). Japanese brokerage firm Nomura estimates that more than a fifth of the country is under restricted movement. This is weighing on China'

Ed Yardeni

Happy Thanksgiving

Nov 24, 2022

We at the Yardeni Research family wish you and your families a Happy Thanksgiving. We are thankful for your interest in our research service.

Ed Yardeni

Leading Indicators Seeing Recession Next Spring

Nov 23, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Housing: Multi-Family Boom vs Single-Family Bust

Nov 22, 2022 1 min read paid

Single-family housing activity is falling into a recession. Single-family housing starts fell 29.5% ytd through October. Housing downturns have been major contributors to most recessions in the past. This time, though, strength in multi-family starts is offsetting some of the weakness in single-family starts. Single-family starts has accounted for only 51% of residential construction put in place over the past 10 years, down from close to 70% prior to

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Is A Net Exporter Of Fossil Fuels

Nov 21, 2022 2 min read paid

Climate activists believed that if governments were to impose regulations that limit fossil fuel production, fossil fuel prices would rise, encouraging more usage of renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, government support still would be needed to make renewable sources cost competitive. That reality combined with geopolitical developments have made the transition from fossil to renewable fuels far less smooth than climate activists had assumed. This is an excerpt from our Nov

Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Market Call

Nov 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Here is Joe Feshbach’s latest call on the market: “On Wednesday of last week, we had one of those crazy-high put/call ratios which halted the big decline in the Nasdaq the next day. Unfortunately, the ratio didn’t remain high and quickly returned to neutral.

Ed Yardeni

Risk Off In Last Week's Performance Derby

Nov 19, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 went nowhere fast last week, dropping 0.7% to 3965, putting it in between its 200-day moving average of 4053 and its 50-dma of 3790 (chart and table). Hanging over the market is that investors seem to be hanging on to every word of the participants of the FOMC (a.k.a., the "Federal Open Mouth Committee"). The economy is doing relatively well,

Ed Yardeni

FTX Crash Isn't Stressing US Credit System

Nov 18, 2022 2 min read

Earlier last week, crypto exchange FTX had to deny customer withdrawal requests of about $5 billion. FTX lent about $10 billion of customers’ funds to Alameda Research for trading purposes. John Ray III is the new CEO of FTX. He was the man who cleaned up the mess at Enron. He says the situation at FTX is even worse, describing what he calls a “complete failure” of corporate control. (Here

Ed Yardeni

Archive

Page 102 of 129

Most Widely Anticipated Recession Ever

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/28/22

The Economic Week Ahead, Nov. 28-Dec. 2

Yield Curve Spread Signaling Rate Peak

China's Zero-Covid Policy Is A Disaster

Happy Thanksgiving

Leading Indicators Seeing Recession Next Spring

Housing: Multi-Family Boom vs Single-Family Bust

DEEP DIVE: US Is A Net Exporter Of Fossil Fuels

Feshbach's Market Call

Risk Off In Last Week's Performance Derby

FTX Crash Isn't Stressing US Credit System