Archive

ECB Stuck Between A Rock & A Hard Place

Aug 3, 2022 1 min read paid

Soaring consumer prices and the prospect of energy rationing this coming winter have depressed consumer confidence in the Eurozone. No wonder that the volume of retail sale in the region fell 1.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y during June, suggesting that the risks of a recession in the Eurozone are increasing (chart below).

Ed Yardeni

US Services Economy Continues To Grow

Aug 3, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 stock price index and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield are both up today following July's better-than-expected ISM nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI). It edged up to 56.7 last month. Last week's S&P Global flash estimate suggested it would be weaker. Here's more: (1) The NM-PMI's new orders index was strong at 59.9.

Ed Yardeni

Less Helped Wanted

Aug 2, 2022 1 min read paid

There are still 1.8 open jobs per available worker. However, June's job openings dropped 605,000 to about 10.7 million, the fewest since September 2021. It was the sharpest decline since April 2020, when the economy was in the lockdown recession.

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Truck Tonnage & Employment

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

The trucking industry didn't get the recession memo yet. The ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.7% in June after rising 0.3% in May. In June, the index equaled 120.1, rebounding almost back to its pre-pandemic record high. Trucking is a good coincident indicator of the economy, representing 72.5% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/1/22

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

We’ve been making the case that the latest bear market might have bottomed on June 16. So far, so good. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. Just a few weeks back, industry analysts’ earnings estimates suggested they were oblivious to investors’ recession fears, and we quipped that the

Ed Yardeni

Signs of Peak Inflation

Aug 1, 2022 1 min read

Today was a good day for those of us expecting to see peak inflation soon. July's US manufacturing purchasing managers (M-PMI) survey found that the M-PMI prices-paid index dropped to 60.0 from 87.1 in January. That's not surprising since the prices-paid and prices-received indexes that we compile from the five regional business surveys confirmed that inflationary pressures may be abating (charts below). That'

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, August 1-5

Jul 31, 2022 2 min read paid

Can you believe it’s August already? This week, we’ll get lots of data on business activity, employment, consumers, housing, and construction. On balance, it should all be consistent with our growth recession scenario. Consider the following: (1) Business. On Monday, ISM’s M-PMI is likely to fall closer to 50.0. A similar index that we compile from the 5 regional Fed surveys was very weak last month.

Ed Yardeni

Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?

Jul 31, 2022 1 min read

The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now. The US Treasury bond yield peaked this year (so far) at 3.49% on June 14, falling to 2.67% on Friday. That’s surprising given that inflation remains so high. But we aren’t surprised. As we’ve pointed out before, the

Ed Yardeni

Revaluing Earnings

Jul 30, 2022 1 min read paid

In the past few weeks, industry analysts started to shave their S&P 500 earnings forecasts for this year and next year. Last Wednesday, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75bps to 2.25%-2.50%. On Thursday, we learned that real GDP fell for a second quarter in a row marking a technical recession, though a mild one so far. So, naturally, the stock market has

Ed Yardeni

US Regional Business Slowing; Inflation Peaking

Jul 29, 2022 1 min read

July's national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI) will be released on Monday. Will investors cheer it? The regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve district banks suggest that the M-PMI should fall closer to 50.0 from June's 53.0 (chart below). The M-PMI's prices-paid index, which remained very high at 78.5, should also moderate somewhat, according to the

Ed Yardeni

Tomorrow's ECI Could Be Bad News

Jul 28, 2022 1 min read paid

Q2's Employment Cost Index (ECI) comes out tomorrow morning. In his press conference yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell assessed inflationary pressures in the labor market. He said: "There's some evidence that wages, if you look at average hourly earnings [AHE], they appear to be moderating. Not so yet from the other wage measures. And we'll be getting the employment compensation index measurement I

Ed Yardeni

It's A Banana!

Jul 28, 2022 1 min read

Real GDP fell 0.9% (saar) during Q2, following a 1.6% decline during Q1. That's a "growth recession" in our opinion. It is widely believed that two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP is an outright recession. However, it won't be an official recession until the Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. They might not do so since

Ed Yardeni

Archive

Page 116 of 130

ECB Stuck Between A Rock & A Hard Place

US Services Economy Continues To Grow

Less Helped Wanted

No Recession In Truck Tonnage & Employment

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/1/22

Signs of Peak Inflation

The Economic Week Ahead, August 1-5

Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?

Revaluing Earnings

US Regional Business Slowing; Inflation Peaking

Tomorrow's ECI Could Be Bad News

It's A Banana!