Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 116)

Another Week Without a Banking Crisis

Apr 29, 2023 2 min read

Our mantra since the start of the banking crisis on March 10 has been that any day without a banking crisis is a good day for the stock market. Now our mantra is that any week without a banking crisis is a good week for the stock market. It was a good week for stock prices last week, especially on Friday, even though First Republic Bank continued its meltdown, which

Ed Yardeni

Consumer Staples Prices Inflating

Apr 28, 2023 1 min read paid

The good news is that the headline PCED inflation rate fell sharply to 4.2% y/y during March (chart). The bad news is that the core PCED inflation rate edged down to 4.6%. We aren't changing our forecast for headline inflation this year. We are still expecting to see it fall below 4.0% soon and closer to 3.0% later this year.

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Buoyed By Solid Consumer Indicators

Apr 28, 2023 2 min read paid

The widely anticipated recession is still MIA. That's one reason why stocks have rebounded smartly since October 12, 2022, which was the end of the latest bear market in our opinion. It's hard to have a recession when consumer incomes are rising and they are spending more on both goods and services (chart). Inflation-adjusted incomes are rising because employment gains remain solid. Just as important

Ed Yardeni

Inventories Depress GDP

Apr 27, 2023 1 min read

Economic growth wasn't as weak as suggested by real GDP which rose only 1.1% (saar) during Q1. During Q4, inventories surged as consumers pivoted from buying goods to purchasing services. Goods producers and providers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting their orders to their suppliers and by lowering their prices to move their excess merchandise out the front door. So, excluding inventories, real final sales rose 3.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/24/23

Apr 26, 2023 1 min read paid

Banks were tightening lending standards before the banking crisis, and the crisis has escalated that. We don’t think a credit crunch will ensue, though we’re monitoring the situation closely. But we agree with Treasury Secretary Yellen that banks’ tightening of credit conditions effectively can substitute for further Fed tightening. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will

Ed Yardeni

Foul Moods

Apr 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% today mostly because First Republic's earnings report reminded investors that the banking crisis may not be over yet. That put them in a foul mood all day. Consumers are also in a foul mood: The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 in April, the lowest reading since July 2022, from 104.0 in March. Consumers&

Ed Yardeni

An Upbeat Earnings Indicator

Apr 24, 2023 1 min read paid

Why has the stock market been holding up so well so far this year despite lots of pessimism about an impending recession? One possible explanation is that industry analysts are turning more optimistic on the earnings prospects of the companies they follow. We have been tracking the percent of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month percent changes in analysts' consensus forward earnings (chart). (FYI: “Forward” earnings

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 23, 2023 2 min read

The S&P 500 has been remarkably quiet over the past couple of weeks just below its February 2 high and above both its 50-dma and 200-dma (chart). The earnings season started well with better-than-expected results from the major banks. Investors may be marking time waiting to see if Fed officials will proceed with the widely expected 25bps hike in the federal funds rate at

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 24-28

Apr 23, 2023 1 min read paid

This week is jampacked with economic indicators and earnings reports. The BIGGEST numbers will come out on Friday for the PCED and ECI inflation rates. Both should show that inflation remains high but is continuing to moderate. The ECI wage inflation rate was 5.1% during Q4. We know that AHE fell to 4.2% y/y during March (chart). Q1's preliminary real GDP (Thu) is tracking at

Ed Yardeni

Fed 's H.4.1 Shows Banking Crisis Not Getting Worse

Apr 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed's H.4.1 report is released every Thursday at 4:15 pm. It shows the Fed's assets and liabilities. Yesterday's report shows that the Fed's total assets edged down to $8.7 trillion after rising since early March when banks scrambled to borrow from the Fed's liquidity facilities to offset deposit outflows during the SVB-induced banking crisis

Ed Yardeni

Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder

Apr 20, 2023 3 min read

The S&P 500 has been holding up quite well as the the nattering nabobs of negativism beat their drums more loudly. Today's batch of economic indicators gave the bears plenty to growl about. Consider the following: (1) LEI. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) peaked at a record high during February 2022 (chart). It's been falling since then. It was down during March

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Sentiment Most Bullish Since Start of Last Year's Bear Market

Apr 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) climbed for the fourth week to 2.11 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year, just when the previous bull market ended (chart). Early last October, when the bull market bottomed, the BBR was well below 1.00 at readings similar to those at the bottom of the bear market during the Great Financial Crisis. In late October, we concluded

Ed Yardeni

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