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Supply-Chain Disruptions Easing. More Supply or Less Demand?

Jun 28, 2022 1 min read

June's surveys of five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks strongly suggest that supply-chain disruptions have eased significantly in recent months. However, that has yet to relieve inflationary pressures according to the surveys. The question is whether the drops in regional indexes tracking unfilled orders and delivery times during the first half of this year reflect more ample supplies or diminishing demand. Presumably, if demand is taking

Ed Yardeni

June's Regional Business Surveys Were Recessionary

Jun 28, 2022 2 min read paid

It's hard to come up with anything positive to say about June's batch of regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 district Federal Reserve Banks. That's because they were mostly in negative territory (chart below). They certainly add to the credibility of the recession-is-here scenario. However, the regional surveys tend to focus on manufacturing rather than services. Indeed, the averages of the

Ed Yardeni

Regional Business Surveys Bearish for New Orders

Jun 27, 2022 1 min read

The economy is teetering. After the release of durable goods orders this morning, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model showed Q2 real GDP rising by a paltry 0.3% (saar), but up from 0.0% previously. Nondefense capital goods orders, a measure of capital spending, rose at a better-than-expected pace of 0.5% m/m (9.8% y/y) during May to yet another record high. However, some of

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 6/27/22

Jun 26, 2022 1 min read

The best laid plans of climate activists have gone majorly awry: Soaring fossil fuel prices haven’t increased demand for and supply of “clean” energy sources, as they’d expected, while demand for fossil fuels exceeds supplies. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. And activists’ pressure on European governments

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: How's Business?

Jun 26, 2022 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing. Every month, the Census Bureau releases its “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services.” The latest report was released on June 15 at 8:30 a.m. An hour and a half later every month, the Census Bureau releases its “Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales” report—for the previous month. In other words, on June 15, Census reported retail sales

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/27/22

Jun 25, 2022 2 min read

The week ahead is jam packed with June regional and national economic surveys. They are likely to confirm that we live in stagflationary times. Key consumer indicators are likely to show that Americans are spending less on goods, more on services, and much more on everything because of inflation. More specifically: (1) Among the biggies will be the national M-PMI on Friday, which is the first day of July. It

Ed Yardeni

A Good Relief Rally

Jun 24, 2022 1 min read paid

What a relief to finally have a good relief rally in the stock market. Consider the following: (1) The S&P 500 was up 6.4% this week, and 6.7% since it bottomed on Thursday, June 16 at 3666.77. It was down 23.6% back then from its January 3 record high. Now it is down 18.4% from that peak. (2) The S&P 500&

Ed Yardeni

Oil Prices Might Be Peaking

Jun 24, 2022 2 min read

The best cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. They are boosting production, while weighing on demand. As a result, crude oil prices may be peaking, which would certainly help to cause overall inflation to peak. Consider the following recent developments: (1) US petroleum output rose to 19.4mbd during April, with crude oil field production rising to 11.9mbd, natural gas liquids at 5.5mbd, biofuels at

Ed Yardeni

No Recession Yet In Forward Profit Margins

Jun 23, 2022 1 min read

Corporate profit margins always plunge during recessions. They aren't doing so at this time, thus raising doubts about the credibility of imminent-recession forecasts. We can monitor the profit margins of the S&P 500 along with its 11 sectors and 100+ industries on a weekly basis using forward profit margins derived as the ratio of forward earnings to forward revenues, which are time-weighted averages of the consensus

Ed Yardeni

Dr. Copper May Be Signaling Peak Inflation

Jun 23, 2022 1 min read paid

Dr. Copper, the base metal with a PhD in economics, may be signaling a top in the CRB raw industrials spot price index. It dropped below $4.00 for the first time this year to $3.92 today (chart below). It may be predicting a global economic slowdown, but it's too soon to tell if it is foreshadowing an impending US recession.

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratio Lowest Since March 2009!

Jun 22, 2022 2 min read

Bears started coming out of hibernation early this year. Now they are roaming all over the stock market. Here are the latest bearish sentiment readings, which are bullish from a contrarian perspective: (1) The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) was below 1.00 for the eighth consecutive week this week. It slipped for the third week to 0.60 this week—the lowest reading since early March 2009, which was when

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 6/21/22

Jun 21, 2022 1 min read

In today's Webcast: “What planet are you from?,” analysts and investors may be wondering of each other these days, with the former super bullish and the latter super bearish. Analysts weren’t bullish enough about Q1 earnings. Yet investors are solely focused on the recession risk as the Fed fights inflation and have been pounding down valuations. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast

Ed Yardeni