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Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/14/23

Dec 14, 2023 1 min read paid

The economy has proven resilient, defying all the reasons it shouldn’t be, to which diehard hard landers still cling. We expect that it will remain resilient and that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed’s target (a.k.a. “immaculate disinflation”). In this scenario, the Fed won’t be rushing to ease and won’t ease by much. The Fed’s policy stance is perhaps better cast

Ed Yardeni

Stock & Bond Prices Flying With The Fed's Doves

Dec 13, 2023 3 min read paid

Today's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC after the committee's meeting was dovish. As a result, bond and stock prices continued their Santa Claus rallies that started at the beginning of November. The most important change in the latest SEP from the previous one during September is that the federal funds rate is projected to fall in 2024 to 4.6% rather than

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Earnings At Record High

Dec 12, 2023 2 min read paid

Yippee! S&P 500 operating earnings per share rose to a record high in Q3, for the first time since Q2-2022, and its 4.6% y/y increase was the first such gain in four quarters (chart). Forward earnings rose to another record high during the December 7 week, suggesting the same for actual earnings during Q4. The just-ended earnings recession was very mild, with three back-to-back quarters of

Ed Yardeni

Continue To Underweight Commodities & Emerging Markets In Global Portfolios

Dec 11, 2023 2 min read

The global economy is growing, but at a slow pace. Much of the weakness is attributable to the recessions in China and Europe. US economic growth is slowing from Q3’s rapid pace. Much of the weakness is structural in China but cyclical in the US and Europe. The latter two are likely to grow in 2024, but China will probably remain weak. This implies that commodities and emerging markets

Ed Yardeni

A Christmas Market For The Bull? S&P 500 At 6000 In 2025?

Dec 10, 2023 3 min read paid

Christmas is in two weeks. This year's Santa Claus rally started early, i.e., on October 27. Will it last through Christmas? Will the rally continue through the end of this year, and maybe through the end of 2024 or even 2025? We think so. In our November 3, 2022 Morning Briefing, we wrote that “we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 11 - 15

Dec 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The big event of the week will be the FOMC meeting (Tue & Wed) followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser (Wed @ 2:30 pm). December's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released along with the Dot Plot after the meeting. The markets have most likely fully discounted what Powell will say and what the SEP and Dot Plot will show. Powell will say that

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Construction Is Booming!

Dec 8, 2023 3 min read paid

The US economy has been remarkably resilient in the face of the Fed’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy since early last year. One of the sectors that accounts for that resilience is the construction industry. In the past, rising interest rates always depressed construction, which exacerbated the resulting recessions (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). This time, the weakness in residential construction has been offset by relatively strong private nonresidential

Ed Yardeni

Another Bowl Of Mixed Nuts

Dec 7, 2023 2 min read

The S&P 500 is consolidating its gains since the October 27 bottom. In recent days, its been trading between 4550 and 4600 (chart). Investors are trying to ascertain which way the economy is headed in 2024. We remain in the soft landing camp. Today's data continued to show that consumers have jobs. However, the latest reading on consumer credit borrowing was weak. Consider the following: (1)

Ed Yardeni

Productivity Revised Up

Dec 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market marked time again today with the S&P 500 remaining around 4550. The 10-year Treasury bond yield continued to fall today to 4.10%. Apparently, today's economic indicators were deemed to be more bullish for bonds than stocks. Consider the following: (1) Employment & wages. ADP reported that payrolls rose just 103,000 during November. Job-stayers saw a 5.6% pay increase in November,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/6/23

Dec 6, 2023 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Soft Landing Remains In Play and Bullish

Dec 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is taking a rest just north of 4550 and south of 4600. Stock investors are waiting for November's jobs report on Friday to decide what to do next. Meanwhile, bond investors aren't waiting to buy more bonds. They liked the latest batch of economic indicators and drove the 10-year Treasury bond yield below 4.25%. Here is a brief overview of

Ed Yardeni

Better Bull Breadth?

Dec 4, 2023 2 min read paid

The latest bull market started on October 12, 2022. Its detractors have been saying that it may not be the real thing. They've observed that it has been narrowly led by the MegaCap-8. That's true. The bearish naysayers have concluded that the bull market therefore isn't sustainable. We disagree. Our alternative outlook is that the bull market should broaden, which may be starting to

Ed Yardeni