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Fed Not Even Thinking About Thinking About Cutting Rates

Nov 21, 2023 2 min read paid

That's the basic message of the FOMC's minutes released today. The word "restrictive" was mentioned seven times mostly in the following context: "In discussing the policy outlook, participants continued to judge that it was critical that the stance of monetary policy be kept sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over time." The core PCED was up

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Set To Vault To New Bull Market High

Nov 20, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 peaked this year on July 31 at 4588.96 (chart). It closed today at 4547.38, which just happens to be the resistance line connecting the July 31 high with the all-time high of 4796.56 on January 3, 2022. It could easily rise to this year's high, which is just shy of our 4600 year-end target by vaulting over the resistance line.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Refreshing Pause For Bulls & Reindeer

Nov 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The federal funds rate futures market is anticipating two 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate over the next 12 months (chart). That makes sense to us and is consistent with the September FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. More rate cuts could occur if a recession is coming our way in 2024, but that's not our forecast. We still think that the 10-year Treasury bond yield

Stephen Rybka

The Economic Week Ahead: November 20-24

Nov 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: In Yellen We Trust

Nov 17, 2023 2 min read paid

When Janet Yellen was Fed chair from October 2010 through February 2014, I often fondly (and respectfully) referred to her as the “Fairy Godmother of the Bull Market.” I noticed that almost every time she spoke publicly about the outlook for monetary policy and the economy, the stock market moved higher. She hasn’t been as bullish for the stock market since January 2021, when she became the secretary of

Ed Yardeni

A Whiff Of Deflation

Nov 16, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Taking A Well-Deserved Break

Nov 15, 2023 2 min read paid

Today was a day of rest in the bond and stock markets. They didn't do much. Perhaps the markets will consolidate their gains since the start of the month through the end of Thanksgiving week. Then we expect that the stock market's Santa Claus rally will resume through the end of the year. In our opinion, the consensus outlook has turned much less pessimistic so far

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/15/23

Nov 15, 2023 1 min read

The stock market has a good track record as a business-cycle indicator, even though last year’s bear market was a false alarm, as investors expected a recession that never came. Since that bear market ended, in October 2022, the stock market has been in a bull market, with its August-through-October weakness simply a correction. Now the Bond Vigilantes and their concerns have retreated, clearing the way for the S&

Ed Yardeni

Another Happy Day For Bond & Stock Investors

Nov 14, 2023 2 min read paid

As inflation continues to descend, bond and stock prices are ascending. Today's lower-than-expected CPI inflation report confirms that inflation is continuing to moderate. So the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.44%, boosting the valuation multiples of stocks. The S&P 500 is now up 9.2% above its recent correction low on October 27 (chart). Our yearend target of 4600 for the index could be

Ed Yardeni

Pumping More Oil & Less Gasoline

Nov 13, 2023 2 min read

Fed officials often have said that they want to make sure that inflation is “well anchored.” In other words, they want to see that inflationary expectations are low. So it was a bit unsettling that Friday’s release of the consumer sentiment survey for the first half of November showed the one-year expected inflation rate jumped from 3.2% in September to 4.2% in October and 4.4% in

Ed Yardeni

Stock Prices Are Jumping Again

Nov 12, 2023 3 min read paid

After the stock market closed on Friday, Moody’s reduced the US government's credit rating from “stable” to “negative” citing large fiscal deficits. The ratings agency said in a statement that “continued political polarization” in Congress raises the risk that lawmakers will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability.” Will bond and stock prices tumble on Monday again

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 13 - 17

Nov 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The third week of the month tends to be action packed with key economic indicators. This week's batch should confirm that inflation remains on a moderating trend and that the economy continues to grow albeit at a slower pace than during Q3. Unfortunately, on Monday, we will be reminded that this Goldilocks scenario has at least one big flaw, i.e., the widening federal deficit. In addition, we

Ed Yardeni