Paid Will Powell Sound More Dovish On Wednesday? Oct 31, 2023 2 min read paid The short answer is: We doubt it. It's unlikely that his views on the economy and monetary policy have changed much since his hawkish interview on October 19 at the Economic Club of New York. So he is likely to maintain the same tone at his presser on Wednesday following the latest FOMC meeting. The message should remain the same. Monetary policy will have to remain restrictive until Ed Yardeni
Paid Market Call: Investors Are Spooked Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid Halloween is on Tuesday. Investors have been spooked since early August. They are still spooked by the widening federal deficit, partisan gridlock in Washington, sticky inflation, Fed hawkishness, and a world of trouble. They've been reacting to good economic news as though it is bad news since inflation is less likely to moderate if the economy is strong. We don't agree because we think that productivity Ed Yardeni
Paid The Week Ahead: October 29 - November 3 Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid Investors would clearly like to see peace on earth and goodwill towards all people. But that ain't happening anytime soon. They would also like to see the US economy slow so that inflation will fall faster and the Fed will turn less hawkish. That ain't likely to happen this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will probably be as hawkish at his presser on Wednesday, following the Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: What's Driving Bonds? Oct 27, 2023 5 min read paid In his interview Thursday with Bloomberg’s David Westin at the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked about the bearish impact of the increasing supply of government debt on the bond market given that the Fed is no longer buying Treasury securities and that foreigners reportedly are reducing their purchases as well. Powell responded that buying by foreigners has “actually been pretty robust” this year. Ed Yardeni
Public Are Stock Valuations Rerating? Oct 26, 2023 2 min read The economic news today was very good. But the stock market sold off sharply for the second day in a row led by a 1.90% drop in the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 fell 1.19% today (chart). That's even though the bond market behaved with the 10-year Treasury yield falling from 4.985% at 8:25 am to 4.851% by the close. But Ed Yardeni
Paid Another Tech Wreck? Oct 25, 2023 2 min read paid The market chose to go down today on Google's disappointing Q3 earnings report rather than Microsoft's upside surprise on Tuesday after the close. Contributing to today's selloff was the rebound in the 10-year bond yield back up to 4.95%. Tech has been weighing on the market since mid-July as the yield rose by 100bps. The Nasdaq is down 10.7% since its 2023 Ed Yardeni
Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/25/23 Oct 25, 2023 1 min read paid The Middle East crisis seems to be escalating into a regional war with US involvement, existential stakes, and global effects. The S&P 500 fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday in response to the geopolitical risks. We expect it to breach that level this week even if the bond yield declines. The escalation of hostilities we expect prompts us to raise our odds of a US recession Ed Yardeni
Paid Everything Is OK Except For... Oct 24, 2023 2 min read paid The Q3 earnings reporting season is underway and going well with Microsoft delivering a big upside earnings surprise after today's close. We still expect that S&P 500 earnings per share rose to a record high during the quarter. That's confirmed by S&P 500 forward earnings (chart). Inflation continues to moderate as confirmed by today's Richmond Fed regional business survey' Ed Yardeni
Paid Ackman's Big Short Oct 23, 2023 2 min read paid “There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates,” Bill Ackman said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, this morning. “We covered our bond short.” He first disclosed his Big Short on August 2 on X, one day after Fitch Ratings downgraded US Treasuries from AAA to AA+, and two days after the Treasury Department announced that the government would Ed Yardeni
Public The Economic Week Ahead: October 23-27 Oct 22, 2023 2 min read This week should be another disappointing one for the hard-landers. That's been true all year and especially during Q3, when the economic surprises were mostly to the upside as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (chart). Q3's real GDP (Thu) is tracking at 5.4% (saar) for the quarter according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. The labor market indicators are likely to show Ed Yardeni
Public Market Call: 'Dangerous Times' Oct 22, 2023 4 min read Strategy I: Middle East's Existential Crisis. Jamie Dimon is probably right. On October 13, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase sounded the alarm on the global effects of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” he said in a statement accompanying the bank’s quarterly earnings. He warned of “far-reaching impacts on energy and food Ed Yardeni