Paid Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/21/23 Feb 22, 2023 1 min read paid What’s next for the US economy? Of four potential outlooks, we see the greatest odds (40%) of a soft landing in which inflation moderates, the Treasury bond remains below last year’s peak, and the S&P 500 ends the year at a new high. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public Ed Yardeni
Paid More Soft Landing Stats Feb 22, 2023 2 min read paid No boom, no bust. That describes yesterday's flash estimates for February's M-PMI and NM-PMI released by S&P Global. They both track the comparable series compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The flash M-PMI rose from 46.9 in January to 47.8 this month (chart). It suggests that the ISM's version of this index will uptick but remain below 50. Ed Yardeni
Paid Rent Inflation Is Moderating Feb 21, 2023 2 min read paid The CPI's rent of primary residence is showing no signs of peaking, rising to 8.6% y/y during January (chart). However, it is widely recognized that this measure is a laggard because it includes rents not only on new leases, but also outstanding ones. The market-based rent inflation indexes compiled by Zillow and ApartmentList have been plunging from around 17% a year ago to 6.9% and Ed Yardeni
Public The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 21-24 Feb 20, 2023 2 min read The holiday-shortened week is a light one for economic indicators. The BIG number will be January's PCED inflation rate, which will be released along with personal income on Friday. The month's CPI was higher than expected , though the y/y inflation rate continued to disinflate. The PCED inflation rate tends to be lower than the CPI inflation rate (chart). That's because rent of shelter Ed Yardeni
Paid DEEP DIVE: The Fed Is Fighting the Markets Feb 18, 2023 3 min read paid Fed officials have indicated that they’d rather see stock and bond prices fall than continue to rise, as they’ve been doing since October of last year. In their opinion, financial markets’ strength has eased financial conditions in the economy, offsetting some of their efforts to tighten financial conditions to bring inflation down. Joe and I question their logic. In our opinion, the drop in bond yields since late Ed Yardeni
Paid Listening To The Markets Feb 18, 2023 2 min read paid On a regular basis, we all need to listen to the markets. They process a tremendous amount of information. They reflect the opinions of lots of buyers and sellers. Their price action can tell us a great deal about the economy, financial conditions, and sentiment. Joe Feshbach helps us to do just that based on his 40+ years trading the financial markets. He had expected that the S&P Ed Yardeni
Paid Loose Fed Lips Sink Stocks & Bonds Feb 16, 2023 2 min read paid Stock and bond prices fell today as two none-voting FOMC participants (Bullard & Mester) suggested that higher-for-longer interest rates will be necessary to bring down inflation. They were reacting to the latest batch of economic indicators confirming that the labor market is tight, consumers are still spending, and inflation may not be falling fast enough. January's PPI, released this morning, rose 0.7% m/m. That was above Ed Yardeni
Paid Foreigners Buying Lots of US Bonds Feb 15, 2023 1 min read paid Foreigners purchased a record $1.6 trillion in US securities over the 12 months through December (chart). That's an impressive US net capital inflow that was generally bullish for the dollar last year and offset the Fed's QT paring of its bond portfolio. Net foreign purchases of US bonds totaled a record $1.2 trillion last year as follows: Treasury notes & bonds ($927 billion), Government Ed Yardeni
Public Born To Shop & Fly Feb 15, 2023 1 min read We aren't that surprised by the 3.0% m/m jump in retail sales reported today. When January's employment data were released, we calculated our Earned Income Proxy for private wages and salaries in personal income (chart). It soared 1.5% m/m as the average workweek jumped 0.9%, payrolls increased 0.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3%. American consumers are doing what Ed Yardeni
Public Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/13/23 Feb 15, 2023 1 min read Perversely, the financial markets’ vote of confidence in the Fed’s ability to subdue inflation without getting the economy into trouble represents a threat to those very efforts, in Fed officials’ eyes, loosening financial conditions as the Fed tightens them. So Fed officials have been trying to squelch investor optimism. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open Ed Yardeni
Paid Inflation Still Too High But Gliding Down Feb 14, 2023 2 min read paid January’s CPI release today showed that inflation is continuing to moderate, though perhaps more slowly than it did during the second half of 2022. The headline and core CPI rose 6.4% y/y and 5.6% through January down from 6.5% and 5.7% during December (chart). The CPI for all consumer goods rose 4.5% y/y in January, down from 4.8% in December and Ed Yardeni
Paid Improving Outlook for Global Economy Feb 13, 2023 1 min read paid While the US economic outlook has been a source of dissention since early last year, few disagreed last summer that both Europe and China would be in recessions by now. Europe was expected to go dark and freeze during the winter months because of a shortage of natural gas resulting from Russia’s attack on Ukraine. China’s recession was expected to result from the government’s zero-Covid lockdowns. Instead, Ed Yardeni