Perversely, the financial markets’ vote of confidence in the Fed’s ability to subdue inflation without getting the economy into trouble represents a threat to those very efforts, in Fed officials’ eyes, loosening financial conditions as the Fed tightens them. So Fed officials have been trying to squelch investor optimism.
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A close look at the data relevant to financial conditions reveals them as tight, but in a good way—tight enough to bring inflation down without a recession but not tight enough to provoke a credit crunch that results in a recession. We continue to stand behind our disinflationary soft-landing forecast.