Ed Yardeni

Straitjacket: Iran's Chaos War Strategy

Mar 5, 2026 4 min read paid

On Tuesday, we warned: "We've been expecting a pullback due to excessive bullish sentiment, but now we expect a 10% correction from the high. It's hard to imagine that the IRGC won't use drones and speed boats to maintain their effective blockade of the Strait. If they are successful in doing so, the correction could be closer to 15%." When the war

Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait Versus Home On The Range

Mar 4, 2026 4 min read

Oil prices stabilized today, so stock prices rose. We expected a pullback in the S&P 500 in early 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% from its record high of 6987.60 on January 27 through Wednesday's close. It was up 0.77% today. Is the pullback over? If so, that's quite remarkable, suggesting investors believe Iran has lost the war and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Another Regime Alteration

Mar 4, 2026 1 min read paid

Saturday’s military attack on Iran by the US and Israel that killed Iran’s leader and 40 top officials is likely to push oil prices higher this week. However, in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire. In any event, the attack also incapacitated Iran’s navy, so the threat of a blocked Strait of Hormuz has been greatly reduced. This is

Ed Yardeni

On The Fog Of War & Having Second Thoughts

Mar 3, 2026 4 min read

Our initial reaction to the latest war in the Middle East was that it isn't likely to last long. However, wars are hard to predict. The fog of war can be very disorienting. The US and Israel killed the top leaders of Iran's regime during the first day of their attacks on the country. So we thought that might set the stage for a short war.

Ed Yardeni

SWEET & SOUR: Iran, China, M-PMI, & PPI

Mar 2, 2026 3 min read

I. Hot war with Iran and cold war with China We remain in the short-war camp on the outlook for the current conflict in the Middle East. The stock market seems to agree, since it barely budged today, though defense stocks rose significantly (chart). Geopolitical crises tend to create buying opportunities in the stock market (chart). The problem is that everyone knows that, which diminishes the magnitude of opportunities! Following

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 2 - 6

Mar 1, 2026 3 min read

Nothing upends the economic game board like a sudden war few had in their bingo cards a week ago. Granted, the coordinated US-Israel attack on Iran over the weekend wasn’t a complete surprise. But the scale of the bombardment that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was impressive. Tehran’s wave of retaliatory missile and drone attacks aimed at US bases and allies around the region, and threats to

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Implications Of The War In The Middle East

Mar 1, 2026 8 min read

This is an excerpt from our latest Morning Briefing, which we are sharing with our QuickTakes community. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on Saturday along with 40 other top Iranian leaders when the US and Israel launched a military campaign against Iran’s Mullah regime. In a February 28 post on The Free Press, historian Niall Ferguson observed that President Donald Trump’s approach to dealing

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Record High For S&P 500 Equal-Weight Stock Price Index

Feb 28, 2026 5 min read

We started writing our Market Call on Friday. Saturday morning, we woke up to the news of the joint military campaign by the US and Israel against Iran's evil Mullah regime. It appears that the two allies have complete air superiority. In a video statement posted to social media, US President Donald Trump vowed to destroy Iran's missile program and navy, and ensure that the country

Ed Yardeni

GEOPOLITICS: The Clock Is Ticking In The Middle East

Feb 27, 2026 3 min read

The US has assembled its largest military presence in the Middle East since 2003, including two aircraft carriers and F-22 stealth fighters. Indirect talks in Geneva between US envoys (Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner) and Iranian officials ended Thursday without a breakthrough. The Trump administration has warned of "drastic consequences" if Iran does not make significant nuclear concessions. Israel has opened bomb shelters and warned Lebanon that its

Ed Yardeni

Will The US Economy Remain Resilient Despite AI Derangement Syndrome?

Feb 26, 2026 4 min read paid

If AI continues to disrupt, if not destroy, more and more business models, won't that cause a recession? It might if it triggers lots of white-collar layoffs, which in turn lead to blue-collar job losses (chart). Alternatively, it might cause a credit crunch in the private credit markets. UBS Group AG has raised its private credit default forecast, with its strategists warning that losses could reach as high

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Update On AI Derangement Syndrome & Its Consequences

Feb 25, 2026 3 min read paid

Last year's impressive stock market rally, which began on April 9 (when POTUS postponed his Liberation Day tariffs), was fueled by AI Optimism. It turned into AI Fatigue late last year and, in recent weeks, into AI Fear. Now it's AI Derangement Syndrome. For a while, AI was widely thought of as a productivity-enhancing tool. Now the worry is that it has turned into a Terminator

Ed Yardeni

Foreigners Are Buying, Not Selling, US Securities

Feb 24, 2026 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

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