Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Don't Cry For Him, Venezuela

Jan 4, 2026 4 min read paid

We expected the first half of 2026 to be volatile for stocks. It's only January 4, and we can add Venezuela to our list of unsettling developments. Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan president captured by the United States on Saturday, is being held in a notorious Brooklyn jail. President Donald Trump said the US will "run" Venezuela. The geopolitical fallout could be troublesome. The Chinese government might

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: January 5–9

Jan 4, 2026 3 min read

With the holidays behind us, the first full trading week of the year is a busy one on the data front. The big focus, naturally, is on the December employment report. It's the first "full" release since the government shutdown caused data interruptions. It also marks a return to normalcy for investors eager to gauge how the Fed might proceed in the weeks ahead. Recent data

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: 1920s And 2020s Not The Only Roaring Decades

Jan 2, 2026 4 min read

Goldman Sachs has been pushing the view that the stock market's return over the next 10 years is likely to be very low, at only around 3% per year. We disagree. Admittedly, there's logic to that forecast: The forward P/E of the S&P 500 is currently historically high at 21.8 (chart). That suggests that it's likely to fall in the

Ed Yardeni

CRIB SHEET: The New Year

Jan 1, 2026 4 min read paid

Happy 2026! It should be the seventh year of our Roaring 2020s scenario, with three more to go. We first wrote about this scenario on August 11, 2020, in our Morning Briefing titled "Another Roaring Twenties May Still Be Ahead." We predicted, "So far, the 2020s has started with the pandemic, but there are plenty of years left for the prosperous 1920s to become a precedent for

Ed Yardeni

Will Emerging Markets Outperform Again In 2026?

Dec 31, 2025 3 min read paid

The Emerging Markets (EM) MSCI stock price index may outperform both the US MSCI stock price index and the Developed Countries ex-US MSCI stock price index in 2026. It outperformed the former in 2025 but underperformed the latter and many of its constituents. The broader EM outperformance we expect in 2026 might last for a few years. That's because advanced economies have, on average, stagnated in both production

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: More Thoughts on 2026: Markets, Earnings, and Volatility

Dec 31, 2025 1 min read paid

Dr Ed Yardeni shares additional thoughts on the outlook for 2026, including why the economy and markets remain resilient and where risks may emerge. He discusses earnings-driven market gains, consensus S&P 500 targets, the impact of Fed easing and fiscal stimulus, and why the first half of 2026 could be volatile despite a constructive full-year outlook. Ed also covers AI competition, productivity trends, bond yields, deficits, gold, and

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: 2026--Another Year Of Living Audaciously!

Dec 29, 2025 10 min read paid

This is a reprint of our December 11, 2025 Morning Briefing. 2026 I: What Will Likely Go Right? The Roaring 2020s remains our base-case scenario. For 2026, we are raising our subjective odds of this prospect from 50% to 60%. We are less concerned about a meltup/meltdown scenario now, so we are lowering the odds of that from 30% to 20%. We are keeping our bearish scenario at 20%

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Both AI Story And Contrary Indicators Are Mixed

Dec 27, 2025 4 min read

The AI plot thickens: Chinese scientists have unveiled an optical computing chip that outperformed Nvidia’s top GPU by over a hundredfold in speed and energy efficiency—particularly for generative tasks such as video production and image synthesis. (Incidentally, YRI is working with a Korean media company that will use AI to synthesize Dr Ed’s speech in various languages.) One of our sage accounts observed that AI may be

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Stocks, Bonds & Gold In 2026

Dec 24, 2025 paid

Ed Yardeni shares his outlook for stocks, bonds, and gold in 2026, examining the key drivers that could shape each asset class in the year ahead. 🔒Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on

Ed Yardeni

Mistletoe Magic And The S&P 500 In 2026

Dec 24, 2025 3 min read

Mistletoe is relevant to several cultures. In the advent of the Christian era, mistletoe in the Western world became associated with Christmas as a decoration under which lovers are expected to kiss, as well as with protection from witches and demons. Let's hope its magic lasts into 2026 through next Christmas. The consensus among Wall Street investment strategists is that the magic will last. According to Bloomberg, their

Ed Yardeni

Remind Us: Why Did The Fed Ease?

Dec 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Productivity must be booming. Real GDP jumped 4.3% (saar) in Q3, following a 3.8% increase in Q2. Over the same period, aggregate hours worked in private industry was flat (saar). Productivity must have increased by more than 3.5% over the previous two quarters. That's consistent with our productivity-led Roaring 2020s scenario. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross

Ed Yardeni

Why Are Precious Metals Getting More Precious?

Dec 22, 2025 3 min read paid

Are the soaring prices of precious metals a warning sign that the Roaring 2020s might end in 2026? We don't think so. However, we have been considering what might be driving the recent spike in precious metals prices. On a y/y basis, gold is up 69.0%. It is lagging silver (139.5%), platinum (133.1%), and palladium (95.1%). We doubt this reflects a rebound in

Ed Yardeni

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