Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: 2026 Is Coming!

Nov 26, 2025 1 min read paid

Our base-case outlook calls for a continuation of the Roaring 2020s scenario next year, with ongoing productivity gains that fuel a robust economy, which propels earnings and the stock market higher. Today, Dr Ed reviews the Roaring 2020s thesis; outlines what he expects 2026 will bring in terms of economic variables, earnings, and the S&P 500; makes portfolio allocation recommendations; and weighs in on the “Impressive-493,” the rising

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: 2026 Is Coming!

Nov 25, 2025 8 min read

This is an excerpt of the November 24, 2025 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. Roaring ’20s I: Just Another Year of the Roaring 2020s. We are getting into the warm-and-fuzzy spirit of the holidays. Thanksgiving is on Thursday. Hanukkah begins the evening of December 14 and lasts through the evening of December 22. Christmas Eve is on December 24. Kwanzaa is from December 6 through January 1. The season ends with

Ed Yardeni

Joy Ride

Nov 24, 2025 3 min read

At the start of November, we expected a pullback in the stock market because the Bull-Bear Ratio we monitor indicated too many bulls. That's bearish from a contrarian perspective. Could the pullback be over already? It might be if the Fed delivers a rate cut on December 10. The stock market took a gut-wrenching dive on Thursday last week. It's still not obvious why the drop

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 24-28

Nov 23, 2025 3 min read

During this holiday-shortened week, investors will receive a cornucopia of data now that the government is open again. Some of the data will be a bit stale. But they should indicate how Q3 ended for the economy. September's retail sales report (Tue) should show a solid increase, with strength in spending by higher-income shoppers more than offsetting the weakness in spending by lower-income workers. This dichotomy is supported

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Time To Meditate

Nov 23, 2025 5 min read

The S&P 500 is back on a slower track than the fast track it was on since April 9 until the end of October. It no longer is outpacing its average year-to-date performance over the past 10 years (chart). In fact, it is up 12.3% ytd, matching the average year-end performance of the past 10 years. However, the S&P 500 did peak at a record-high

Ed Yardeni

To Bail Or Not To Bail?

Nov 20, 2025 4 min read

Good news bears were on the loose today. It was a risk-off day in financial markets despite strong earnings and economic news. Nvidia reported better-than-expected Q3 results yesterday after the market closed. This morning, we learned that payroll employment rose more than expected in September and that initial unemployment claims remained subdued last week. Nevertheless, it was a bad day for stock investors. The stock market pullback that we expected

Ed Yardeni

Data-Dependent

Nov 19, 2025 3 min read

What do Nvidia and the Fed have in common? They are both data-dependent. Nvidia's GPUs are the latest stage of the Digital Revolution, which started during the mid-1960s with IBM's mainframes. The Digital Revolution is all about processing ever more data, faster and faster, and at ever lower cost. In this context, GPUs are just the latest development in the Digital Revolution. The next big, new

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: All About Earnings

Nov 19, 2025 1 min read paid

The economy and corporate profits have been remarkably resilient in recent years despite numerous formidable challenges. This year continued the remarkable performance, as Trump’s Tariff Turmoil failed to derail earnings or the economy. As a result, the stock market has soared. We remain optimistic on the outlooks for the economy, earnings, and the stock market, supported by a continuation of this year’s remarkable earnings strength into 2026. … However,

Ed Yardeni

The AI-Led Pullback: Recalibrating The Odds Of Three Scenarios

Nov 18, 2025 3 min read

Will today's widely feared AI crisis turn out to be a no-show, too, just like the most widely anticipated recession of all time, anxiously awaited over most of the past four years? We think so. Stock investors are increasingly worrying about an AI-led Tech Wreck, like the one in 2000 after the 1999 Tech Bubble burst. Now, many of them believe the stock market is in an AI-led

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Debate About the Quality of AI Earnings

Nov 17, 2025 3 min read

This is an excerpt from the November 17, 2025 Morning Briefing of Yardeni Research. Michael Burry, the man behind the “Big Short” during the Great Financial Crisis, is shorting the AI trade because he notes that hyperscalers have been depreciating their GPU chip investments over more than 3 years. He thinks that they should be doing it for under three years. That is a reasonable concern given that the forward

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 17-21

Nov 16, 2025 2 min read

The week ahead is a pivotal one for market participants seeking some clarity on US growth and the likelihood of another Fed rate cut. Now that the longest-ever government shutdown is over, investors will finally get a look at the September employment report. While stale at this point, the report should provide some insight into labor market conditions. A flurry of public speaking events by Fed officials will reveal whether

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: The Federal Open Mouth Committee

Nov 15, 2025 4 min read

We are surprised that the financial markets were surprised by the hawkish tone of remarks from Fed officials this past week. Collectively, a few participants on the Federal Open Mouth Committee pushed back against market expectations for an imminent rate cut, stressing that inflation is not yet under control and that monetary policy must remain restrictive. In prepared comments during his October 29 presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, "

Ed Yardeni

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