Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, July 25-29, 2022

Jul 24, 2022 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jam-packed with economic data that are likely to show weakening economic activity and some signs of peaking inflation. In addition, the latest FOMC statement, released Wednesday, will probably announce a 75bps rate hike. Now consider the following:

Ed Yardeni

More Signs of Slowing Global Economy

Jul 22, 2022 1 min read

Today, S&P Global released its flash estimates for the purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) of the US, the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan. They are showing that the global economy is slowing in both the manufacturing and services sectors: (1) The US services index dropped from 52.7 in June to 47.0 in July. It has been on a downward course since March’s recent high and signaled

Ed Yardeni

More Signs of A Mid-Cycle Slowdown

Jul 21, 2022 1 min read paid

The latest batch of economic indicators are in line with our mild recession outlook (a.k.a., a mid-cycle slowdown). We now have June's Leading and Coincident Economic Indexes (LEI & CEI) and July's NY and Philly regional business surveys, which are conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve district banks. The averages of the five tend to closely track the national manufacturing purchasing managers

Ed Yardeni

China Scrambles to Avoid Lehman Moment

Jul 20, 2022 1 min read

How do you say "Lehman Moment" in Chinese? The Chinese government is scrambling to avert such a calamity resulting from China's real estate bust. There's a global housing recession underway, led by China. That's why the price of copper has been in a freefall, plunging 33% from $4.94 on March 4, 2022 to $3.31 today (chart). We’ve been tracking

Ed Yardeni

Is the Stock Market Discounting Peak Inflation?

Jul 20, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 rose yesterday by 2.76% to 3936.69. It is up 7.4% from its June 16 low of 3666.77. At that low, the index was 23.4% below its January 4 record high. Now it is down 17.9% from the record high. The S&P 500 index rose above its 50-day moving average yesterday. The Nasdaq also rose above its 50-day

Ed Yardeni

NY Fed Survey Shows Easing Pricing Pressures

Jul 19, 2022 1 min read

The NY Fed's July business survey showed significant declines in the prices-paid and prices-received diffusion indexes . Six-month-ahead expectations are down even more for both indexes (charts below). We will be closely examining the July business surveys conducted by four other Federal Reserve bank districts for confirmation that inflationary pressures are abating nationally. Philly will be released on Thursday. Dallas, Richmond, and KC will be out next week. We

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/18/22

Jul 18, 2022 1 min read

What’s ahead for the stock market? That depends on the significance of the S&P 500’s June 16 low-to-date in the current bear market, of 3666. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. If that turns out to be the bear’s bottom—which sure would be

Ed Yardeni

Homebuilders' Sentiment Plummets

Jul 18, 2022 1 min read

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a survey designed to gauge market conditions, found builder sentiment dropped 12 points to 55 in July. That marked the largest one-month drop in the survey’s 37-year history with the exception of April 2020, when the reading plummeted 42 points to 30 during the pandemic lockdown. The S&P 500 Homebuilding Index, which is highly correlated with

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Braking China

Jul 17, 2022 2 min read paid

China continues to watch its real estate market deflate and its Covid cases inflate, while worries about its banking system grow. No wonder the recent rally in Chinese shares came to an abrupt halt (Fig. 4). Here’s some news that caught our eye:

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 7/18/22

Jul 17, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead is a light one for economic indicators. Monday starts out with May's Treasury International Capital System data on net capital inflows into the US. April's data showed a near-record $1.5 trillion in private net capital inflows, which certainly explains why the dollar has been so strong. This is consistent with our TINAC theme, that "there is no alternative country" to

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Sectors: Reversals Of Fortune

Jul 16, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 fell 23.6% from January 3 to June 16. It is up 5.4% since then through Friday's close. Is this just a short-covering rally in a bear market? We will be discussing this topic in Monday's Morning Briefing. For now consider the following: (1) So far, the stock market’s rally since June 16 has been led by the biggest

Ed Yardeni

A Growth Recession?

Jul 15, 2022 2 min read paid

Following today's retail sales and industrial production reports, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised real GDP growth down to -1.5% (saar) during Q2 from -1.2%. Real consumption spending was lowered from 1.9% to 1.5%, while gross private investment now shows a decline of -13.8% instead of -13.7%. Consider the following: (1) Retail sales. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales has

Ed Yardeni

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